From: allin
Midterm Election Analysis (2022)
The 2022 US midterm elections did not result in the predicted “Red Wave” for Republicans, instead turning into more of a “puddle” or “eye dropper” according to one observer [06:41:00].
Republican Performance
While some candidates backed by Peter Thiel, such as JD Vance, secured wins [06:48:00], high-profile candidates endorsed by Donald Trump, including Dr. Oz and Dan Cox, largely lost [06:33:00]. This led to the assertion that Trump acts as a “weight on the neck of the Republican party,” and it is “time to just get rid of him” [07:21:00].
Pollster analysis, including that from RealClearPolitics (RCP), was inaccurate due to an “overweight” factor applied based on past election cycles. Pollsters seemingly corrected their methods for the 2022 midterms [07:43:00].
Factors Influencing Election Outcomes
Several key factors contributed to the unexpected election results:
- Trump’s Influence: Donald Trump’s pre-election announcement of his 2024 presidential bid shifted the narrative from a referendum on President Biden to a “choice election” between Biden and Trump [08:46:00]. Exit polling indicated that while Biden was unpopular, Trump was “even more unpopular,” which “did absolutely nothing to help the Republicans” [08:57:00]. Trump’s cap at 40% of passionate supporters prevents him from winning a major national election, as independents and moderate centrists will not support him [17:02:00].
- Dobbs Decision (Abortion): The overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Dobbs decision was a significantly larger factor than initial polling suggested, with 28% of exit voters citing it as their number one issue, compared to 15% in pre-election polls [09:21:00].
- Republicans were seen as going “too far” by advocating for total bans on abortion [11:04:00].
- The “purple state compromise” – allowing abortion restrictions after 15 weeks, as implemented by Ron DeSantis in Florida – appears to be where most of the country stands [09:53:00].
- Democrats’ stance, which often supports abortion up to the ninth month, is considered “more radical than even Roe” and is also not broadly popular [11:37:00].
- Voter Sentiment: Despite economic fundamentals like high inflation, a recession, and low presidential approval ratings typically favoring the opposition party in midterms [08:11:00], the desired outcome did not materialize for Republicans.
- Strategic Primaries: Democrats’ strategy of promoting “extremist Maga candidates” in Republican primaries proved successful, as these candidates consistently lost to Democrats in the general election [12:33:00]. This highlights that the “extreme right cannot field a winning candidate” [12:48:00].
- The “Messy Middle”: Both extreme left-leaning Democrats and extreme right-leaning Republicans performed poorly [12:54:00]. This indicates that the “winning strategy” is for moderate candidates who appeal to the center, such as Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and Brian Kemp [13:03:00]. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu’s advice to Republicans is to “first fixed crazy then fixed policy” [18:55:00].
Impact of the Georgia Senate Runoff
The 2020 Georgia Senate runoff race, which saw Democrats gain control of the Senate, indirectly led to an estimated $10 trillion in “unnecessary spending” and “loose behavior” over the past two years, contributing to inflationary pressure and increased US debt [14:00:00]. This highlights the importance of a balance of power in government [15:03:00]. The upcoming Georgia runoff is also at risk due to Trump’s “extended hissy fit and living in denial” since the 2020 election [16:35:00].
Future Political Landscape
For Republicans to win elections in 2024 and beyond, they must nominate candidates like DeSantis and Youngkin, who are “disciplined” and “calculated” and do not provide unnecessary ammunition to their opponents [18:13:00]. DeSantis’s ability to win Miami-Dade County, which previously voted heavily Democratic, demonstrates that a “competent executive” can appeal to moderates, independents, and even Democrats [20:29:00].
For Democrats, President Biden’s legislative agenda has the potential to work, but it is often “hijacked by the left wing of his party,” leading to “unbelievably crazy iterations of progressive policy” that are unpopular even in traditionally blue states [19:41:00]. Both parties must “clean up all of this extremist rhetoric” to win nationally [13:50:00]. The message for politicians in Washington is to “fix crazy, then fix policy” [06:22:00].