From: allin
2024 Political Predictions
The “All-In Podcast” hosts shared their political predictions for 2024, identifying potential winners and losers, along with their most contrarian beliefs.
Biggest Political Winner in 2024
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Vladimir Putin [00:04:35]
- Prediction by: David Sacks [00:04:29]
- Rationale: Putin stabilized his economy after Western sanctions and gained the upper hand militarily in Ukraine [00:04:37]. Sacks believes 2024 will see Putin consolidating and potentially making new gains in Ukraine, exposing the “stalemate narrative” as false [00:04:56]. His stance against the West has increased his influence in the Global South and BRICS countries [00:05:20]. Sacks states that the “project Ukraine” will fall apart in 2024, reinforcing Putin’s position as a big winner [00:05:38].
- Note: Sacks clarified he is not rooting for Putin, but providing an honest prediction [00:06:40].
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Independent Third Party in the US [00:08:00]
- Prediction by: David Friedberg [00:08:00]
- Rationale: Friedberg cited a poll showing over 60% of people interested in a third party or independent effort [00:08:04]. He mentioned Ross Perot’s 18-19% general election vote in 1992 and RFK Jr. running on an independent ticket [00:08:19].
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Independent Centrists [00:08:50]
- Prediction by: Chamath Palihapitiya [00:08:50]
- Rationale: Palihapitiya believes the 2024 election will start the breakdown of the two-party system [00:08:52]. He noted that many people he knows, particularly former Democrats, no longer want to identify with either party [00:09:09]. RFK Jr. being added to the Utah ballot was cited as an example [00:08:57].
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Darkhorse Presidential Candidate [00:09:28]
- Prediction by: Jason Calacanis [00:09:28]
- Rationale: Calacanis predicts a Darkhorse candidate will beat both Trump and Biden in a rematch that “nobody wanted” [00:09:32].
Biggest Political Loser in 2024
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The Copes (Old School Republicans) [00:14:52]
- Prediction by: Chamath Palihapitiya [00:14:52]
- Rationale: Palihapitiya views them as the largest spenders in Republican politics and a consistent negative indicator of value [00:14:55]. He suggests fading their trades, noting that he would now short the Haley spread trade, which he was long on in 2023 [00:15:17].
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Ukraine [00:15:30]
- Prediction by: David Friedberg [00:15:30]
- Rationale: Friedberg believes attention will shift to the brewing conflict in the Middle East during an election year [00:15:35]. He stated that continued funding for the Ukraine-Russia conflict is becoming unpopular, and the US will likely lack the resources to commit to Ukraine, leading to its NATO shot fading away [00:15:46]. Sacks concurred, citing demographic decline with half a million military casualties and 10 million people having fled the country [00:16:12].
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The Collective West [00:16:45]
- Prediction by: David Sacks [00:16:45]
- Rationale: Sacks argues that the West’s “huge bet” to pressure and challenge Putin in Ukraine has “completely crapped out” [00:16:51]. He also highlighted Israel’s invasion of Gaza as not going well, leading to a humanitarian crisis and international condemnation for Israel, which reflects negatively on America and the West [00:17:05]. Sacks expects “tremendous disruption” in elections in the US and Europe, noting that large parts of Europe, particularly Germany, are in recession due to losing cheap Russian gas [00:18:15].
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Netanyahu [00:18:57]
- Prediction by: Jason Calacanis [00:18:57]
- Rationale: Calacanis stated that major Israeli polls suggest a desire for Netanyahu to be out, with Vox putting the odds of his exit at 75% [00:19:04]. He also noted that the situation in Gaza is not helping and there’s a “massive shift” from initial support for Israel to a call for a different approach [00:19:15].
Most Contrarian Belief of 2024
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Enterprise Value of OpenAI Goes Down [00:42:09]
- Prediction by: Chamath Palihapitiya [00:42:09]
- Rationale: Palihapitiya believes this is due to industry factors rather than OpenAI itself [00:42:17]. He cited high latency and untenable costs of a million tokens across AI platforms, predicting that capitalism will force cheaper, faster solutions [00:43:00]. He anticipates open-source models will proliferate, putting pressure on proprietary models, and the existing economics will be reallocated to new players with custom hardware [00:43:58].
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Increased Probability of a Nuclear Weapon Being Used [00:46:01]
- Prediction by: David Friedberg [00:46:01]
- Rationale: Friedberg believes conflict escalation will continue, driven by “big cycles” [00:45:39]. He attributes this to declining military supplies, declining appetite and capacity for traditional “meat grinder type conflicts” [00:46:11]. He suggests a scenario where someone is “backed into a corner” and a tactical low-yield nuclear weapon is used [00:46:28]. While calling it a 1-2% chance, he states it’s 10x higher than five years ago [00:46:44].
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Turkey Gets Challenged to Leave NATO [00:47:04]
- Prediction by: David Friedberg [00:47:04]
- Rationale: Friedberg noted political commentary about Turkey not being a trusted ally, especially with its siding with Hamas [00:47:21]. Despite the US incentive to keep Turkey in NATO due to its large army, there is a risk of the “first fracturing of NATO” [00:47:30].
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Soft Landing Gets Very Bumpy [00:49:13]
- Prediction by: David Sacks [00:49:13]
- Rationale: Sacks believes markets became overly optimistic in late 2023, pricing in significant Fed rate cuts and leading to a stock market rally [00:49:17]. He predicts that 2024 will be “a lot bumpier” both politically and economically due to this “too much euphoria and overoptimism” [00:49:52].
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Apple Making Huge Gains in Generative AI [00:50:57]
- Prediction by: Jason Calacanis [00:50:57]
- Rationale: Calacanis believes Apple will not remain on the sidelines in AI and will become a significant player, possibly rebooting Siri [00:50:59].