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Political winners and losers of 2022

5 min read

From: allin

The “Bestie Awards” at the end of 2022 recognized the biggest winners and losers across various categories, including politics. This segment reviewed predictions made at the end of 2021 for 2022, and then revealed the actual outcomes observed during the year [00:06:00].

Biggest Political Winners of 2022

Predictions

  • Ron DeSantis: Both Jason Calacanis and David Sacks predicted Ron DeSantis would be a big winner [03:16:00], [03:18:00].
  • Vladimir Putin: David Friedberg predicted Putin would be a winner in 2022, a prediction that “fell a little flat” in retrospect [03:46:00], [03:48:00].
  • Xi Jinping: Chamath Palihapitiya predicted Xi Jinping would be the biggest political winner [04:09:00].

Actual Winners

  • Ron DeSantis: David Sacks affirmed DeSantis as the biggest political winner of 2022 [04:21:00]. The “Red Wave” fizzled everywhere except Florida, where it “crashed hard” [04:30:00]. DeSantis won re-election by about 20 points, and his coattails helped the GOP gain four new House Seats, which matched the exact size of the GOP majority [04:35:00]. Several polls also showed him beating Donald Trump by significant margins for the 2024 GOP nomination [04:46:00]. Florida also became the fastest-growing state [04:54:00].
    • Chamath questioned DeSantis’s win, noting he hasn’t won the nomination yet and only got re-elected to a state he already held [06:48:00]. Sacks countered that his margin of victory increased from less than one percent to almost 20 percent [07:00:00]. While there’s a risk of peaking too soon, if DeSantis remains dominant, he could drive out other contenders, potentially leading to a direct primary fight with Trump [07:33:00].
  • Xi Jinping: Chamath chose Xi Jinping, stating he is now the single most powerful person in the world, holding complete authoritarian control over 1.2 billion people and 20% of global GDP, along with a large amount of the world’s debt [05:07:00].
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: David Friedberg named Zelensky, noting that he transformed from a less-known figure to a “superstar and a hero on a global stage” by leading the narrative against Vladimir Putin, evidenced by his White House visit and address to the U.S. Congress [05:59:00].
    • Sacks challenged Zelensky’s “winner” status by highlighting the devastation in Ukraine, including power outages, destroyed power stations, millions displaced, and over 100,000 casualties [08:14:00]. Friedberg clarified his pick was based on Zelensky’s “accumulation of political goodwill” and perception of winning the war [08:48:00].

Biggest Political Losers of 2022

Predictions

  • The Progressive Left: Chamath predicted the progressive left would be the biggest loser [09:25:00].
  • Nancy Pelosi: David Sacks predicted Nancy Pelosi [09:27:00].
  • U.S. Influence Globally: David Friedberg predicted U.S. influence globally [09:29:00].
  • The Extremes (Biden and Trump): Jason Calacanis predicted both Biden and Trump would be losers [09:31:00].

Actual Losers

  • The Progressive Left: Chamath maintained his prediction, stating the progressive left experienced significant failure, with “leftist, quasi-socialist policies” being “soundly refuted” even in staunchly Democrat areas [09:48:00]. He noted that figures like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders were less prominent [10:35:00].
  • The European Union: Chamath also identified the European Union as a big political loser outside the U.S. due to their need to reverse “green ESG, kind of woke liberal politics” and energy decisions to “stay alive” [10:45:00].
  • NATO’s Diplomatic Blunder: David Sacks argued the biggest political blunder was on January 27th when Blinken stated “NATO’s door is open and must remain open,” which Sacks believed shut the door on a diplomatic off-ramp to end the Ukraine conflict [11:52:00].
  • Liz Truss & Jerome Powell: David Friedberg named a tie between Liz Truss and Jerome Powell [12:33:00].
    • Liz Truss was cited for her short 45-day tenure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, where her policies caused “massive chaos” [12:37:00].
    • Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, became highly politicized, facing criticism for not raising rates soon enough (leading to inflation) and for raising them too quickly (causing economic complaints) [12:59:00].
  • The GOP: Jason Calacanis declared the GOP as the biggest political loser due to the failure of the “Red Wave” (which turned into a “trickle”), the return of Donald Trump, and the “complete unmitigated disaster” of the Roe v. Wade decision [13:48:00]. He also cited issues like marriage equality, alienating women, and the LGBT community, who he believes have “long memories” [14:05:00].
    • Chamath added that “women” were also big losers due to fundamental human rights being stripped away from 50% of the population [14:25:00]. The fact that even red states like Kentucky and Kansas rejected abortion bans showed the Supreme Court was “out of touch” on Roe v. Wade [14:48:00].

Biggest Political Surprises of 2022

Previous Surprises (2021)

Actual Surprises (2022)

  • No Red Wave: David Sacks admitted he got his predictions wrong, as the Republicans did not perform as well as expected despite widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and economic conditions [16:45:00]. They only gained nine House seats, lost one in the Senate, partly due to “candidate quality and of course the whole election denial narrative” [17:09:00]. Friedberg agreed, calling the failure of the Red Wave a “big surprise” [17:31:00].
  • Toothlessness of MAGA and Donald Trump: Chamath was surprised by how ineffective the MAGA movement and Donald Trump were, stating that being associated with Trump became a “Scarlet Letter” for candidates [17:58:00]. He felt this exposed Trump as an “emperor having no clothes,” marginalizing candidates into a fringe following [18:22:00].
  • Trump’s Continued Viability: Jason Calacanis found it “scary” that despite all the controversies surrounding Trump, including documents, legal cases, and January 6th, he remained a viable political figure, especially for the primaries [19:08:00]. Sacks contended Trump was only viable “in the minds of the Maga dead-enders and the mainstream media” [19:28:00].
  • Roe v. Wade Decision: Jason Calacanis noted this as a runner-up for biggest surprise [18:46:00]. This decision had significant implications for the political landscape and election results.

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