From: allin
The year 2025 is anticipated to bring significant shifts in the political landscape, both domestically and internationally, with predictions focusing on new political winners and losers, changes in government policy, and evolving societal dynamics.
Political Winners of 2025
Several predictions point towards a new guard taking the reins and a shift in governing philosophies:
- Fiscal Conservatives Fiscal conservatives are predicted to be major winners in 2025 [06:51:01]. This stems from an anticipated move towards austerity, aiming to expose and cut waste, fraud, and abuse within the United States federal government [07:07:07]. This trend is expected to influence state elections as well [07:25:00].
- Young Candidates A new trend of younger political candidates is expected to emerge, particularly in Trump’s cabinet picks, which have an average age of 40-45 years old, significantly younger than the Biden cabinet’s average of nearly 60 [07:47:00]. This shift is anticipated to bring new, resonant messages and move away from the “Old Guard” [08:04:00].
- Gen X and Elder Millennials This demographic, including figures like Elon, Sachs, Marco Rubio, JD Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tulsi Gabbard, is seen as potentially thinking beyond the self-serving policies of the Baby Boomers (e.g., Social Security, taxes, real estate), to consider their own children and future generations [08:44:00]. This represents a significant “sea change” in political thinking [09:16:00].
- Trump and Centrists Following the 2024 election, it is suggested that independent centrists swayed the vote for Trump, indicating a win for Trump and a form of centrism [06:03:00].
Political Losers of 2025
The anticipated political losers reflect shifts in global power dynamics and ideological movements:
- Vladimir Putin is expected to face a significant defeat in 2025 [09:36:00]. Russia’s status as a client state of China, Europe’s rearmament, and America’s reallocation of resources to the Pacific are seen as creating a disadvantage for China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan [09:44:00]. Additionally, a Trump administration is predicted to be tougher on Putin, leading to a “very, very bad” deal for Russia and Ukraine, marking a humiliating defeat for Russia [10:27:00].
- Pro-War Neocons are predicted to lose influence, with a “big crack in the establishment of this neocon movement” that has been largely pro-conflict [11:13:00]. However, some argue that a Trump administration might still employ bellicose rhetoric to secure better deals, leading to potential misinterpretations of policy [12:10:00].
- Progressivism is anticipated to be the biggest political loser in 2025 [12:56:00]. This is framed as a “repudiation of class-based identity politics” seen across Western G8 countries [13:21:00]. Examples include:
- Justin Trudeau is expected to lose massively to Pierre Poilievre in Canada [13:36:00].
- AFD is projected to win in Germany [13:40:00].
- Marine Le Pen is likely to win in France if an election occurs [13:46:00].
- The Labour government in the UK is expected to fall, potentially leading to Nigel Farage’s victory, amidst a child sexual abuse scandal [13:50:00]. While wokeism and progressivism may decline, socialism (government policy, more role) may rise [10:09:00].
- Racist Vocal Minority of each political party, encompassing both “Dei on one side and outright racism on the other,” is predicted to be a loser [14:50:00].
Broader Implications and Debates
Discussions also touched upon broader political and economic implications:
- Impact of Money in Politics: While there’s a question about “too much money in politics,” the prevailing view is that as long as the money raised on each side is roughly equivalent, it doesn’t significantly alter outcomes [16:54:00].
- The End of the Republican Party as it was known: The 2024 election is seen as the end of the traditional Republican Party, replaced by a “Maga reflection” where the party serves as a vessel for the Maga philosophy [15:31:00]. This has led to the effective “zeroing out” of billions of dollars of investment from the Koch family, who previously dictated candidates and policy [16:03:00]. New donors like Miriam Adelson and Elon Musk are expected to shape future Republican policy [16:39:00].
- Rise of Socialist Movements: Despite an expected acceleration of economic growth and deregulation due to AI, a dramatic rise in socialist movements in the United States is predicted for 2025 [01:05:32]. This is attributed to the unequal distribution of benefits from rapid technological change, leaving large segments of the population behind and fueling demands for government intervention in areas like healthcare and childcare [01:06:05]. AI’s amplification of inequality is seen as a key driver for this trend [01:07:46].
- Federal Debt: The national debt is expected to continue growing. A prediction for 2025 is that the US federal debt will be above 1.5 trillion in the year [01:46:30].
These political dynamics in the US elections and global shifts indicate a tumultuous yet transformative year ahead for politics.