From: allin
The 2024 US elections concluded with a perceived decisive victory for Donald Trump, prompting widespread analysis from both Republican and Democratic perspectives on the underlying shifts in American politics [02:00:06].
Live Election Updates and Initial Calls
As election night progressed, early results indicated a strong showing for Trump. Georgia and North Carolina were called for Trump early on [00:04:16]. David Sachs, co-host of the podcast, broadcast live from Mar-a-Lago in Florida, a hub of Trump’s election night activities [00:02:52].
Initial projections from the New York Times suggested a 297-241 Electoral College split in favor of Trump, with an 83% chance of a Trump victory [00:27:07]. By the end of the night, Polling models and prediction markets indicated Trump leading significantly with a 92% chance of winning [00:56:34], with final Electoral College estimates nearing 301 votes for Trump [01:01:23].
Voter Demographics and Turnout
Donald Trump Jr. highlighted what he considered “unprecedented rural turnout” for their side, contrasting with less favorable results in urban centers [00:04:20]. Notably, he claimed 51% of the 18 to 29-year-old vote in Wisconsin and nearly 20% of the African-American vote there, figures he suggested were unusual for Republicans [00:04:34]. He also observed “cultural shifts” through interactions with African-American men across the country, particularly at airports, rather than just Trump rallies [00:04:59].
The Amish community in Pennsylvania, traditionally non-voters, showed significant turnout, with “miles and miles of Amish in their buggies all with their Trump banners and their Trump Flags going to vote” [01:02:01]. This unusual participation was attributed to perceived Democratic interference with their farming practices [01:02:18]. This demographic, along with a reluctance among some voters to openly discuss their support for Trump, was cited as a reason for discrepancies in traditional polls [01:02:37].
Ideological Shifts: “America First” vs. Traditional Republicanism
Donald Trump Jr. emphasized that a potential victory was not a traditional Republican win, but rather a triumph for the “America First” ideology [00:06:04]. He differentiated this from the “traditional party” and “swamp Republicans” whose priorities, like Mitch McConnell’s focus on Ukraine, were disconnected from the concerns of average conservatives [00:06:30]. Surveys conducted by Donald Trump Jr. at rallies, involving over 100,000 people, revealed that Ukraine was a top 10 issue for only four individuals, none of whom placed it in their top three [00:06:58]. This “America First” message was credited with swaying independents by 20 points in North Carolina and Georgia since 2020 [00:08:15].
Steve Bannon, described as the “architect of the MAGA movement,” reiterated the core ideology as “American citizens first,” particularly focusing on working-class and lower-middle-class people [01:30:40]. He highlighted the significant shift among Hispanic and African-American men, with an estimated 25% of African-American men potentially voting for Trump [01:31:00]. Bannon characterized this as a “transformational night” for a “populist nationalist” party that has been “rebuilt” at the grassroots level [01:32:20].
Government Spending and “DOGE”
A major concern among voters was government spending and the national debt. Donald Trump Jr. expressed excitement about Elon Musk’s concept of a “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) [00:08:32]. He likened Musk’s potential impact on government efficiency to his reduction of Twitter’s workforce by 80%, which he claimed led to better functioning [00:09:44]. The national debt’s interest alone amounts to a trillion dollars a year, which is larger than the GDP of most countries [00:09:27].
Ro Khanna emphasized the need to reduce the deficit by reforming the defense budget, which currently stands at a trillion dollars [01:32:30]. He cited examples of cost overruns, like $1.7 trillion on F-35s, and advocated for opening up defense contracts to new technology companies to foster competition and reduce costs [01:48:48]. The current system was described as “totally rigged,” where generals have incentives to spend due to potential board seats at defense companies after retirement [02:19:57].
”Deep State” and Administrative Challenges
Donald Trump Jr. acknowledged that his father’s previous administration struggled with “team selection” and “blocking the guys that were going to be the guys that were going to slow roll you” in Washington D.C. [01:14:42]. He stressed the importance of selecting individuals “willing to fight” against the “unelected bureaucrat” who “sty mie what the duly elected president of the United States wants to do” [01:11:58]. He believes the Trump team now has four years of experience and knows “who those people are” [01:42:15].
Newt Gingrich defined the “Deep State” as millions of bureaucrats, lobbyists, reporters, and academics who “believe that they have the legitimate right to impose on the rest of us whatever they believe” [01:28:24]. Steve Bannon called for the “military-industrial intelligence legal law enforcement complex” to be “deconstructed” with “full transparency” through major investigations into entities like the FBI and CIA [01:35:44].
Democratic Party’s Self-Reflection and Future
Congressman Ro Khanna conceded that the election was “a tough situation” for Democrats, requiring a “clean sweep of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan” [01:14:50]. He articulated the Democratic ideology as running on abortion rights and an “inclusive democracy” but admitted a need for a clearer vision on job creation and manufacturing [01:44:43]. Khanna also stressed the importance of engaging with audiences on platforms like podcasts, suggesting Vice President Harris should have appeared on shows like “All-in” and “Joe Rogan” [01:45:03].
Dean Phillips, who previously ran for the Democratic nomination, expressed frustration with the party’s “anointment” process, which he believed stifled competition [01:42:26]. He criticized the Democratic Party for being “so blind to reality,” arguing that people want battle-tested winners chosen through competition, not coronations [01:42:49]. Phillips noted that the party is increasingly represented by individuals “far left of the mainstream” who may “hate capitalism and entrepreneurship,” alienating a significant portion of the base [01:45:51].
Phillips also pointed to policy issues, stating that the DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and wokeism initiatives, though “good intentioned,” “complicated matters” for Democrats and “turned off a lot of voters” [01:46:11]. Other issues that hurt the party included border security, overseas wars, and a perceived lack of belief in “competition” [01:46:41]. He argued that the party needs to be “professionalized,” build a strong brand, and recruit candidates focused on winning rather than satisfying “the far left” [01:40:17].
Phillips also highlighted issues with the healthcare system, describing it as “corrupt” due to the influence of pharmaceutical companies and insurers [01:54:19]. He also mentioned that the demonization of successful people in America was problematic [02:25:25].
Polls and Prediction Markets
Throughout the night, prediction markets like PolyMarket were closely watched. Shane, the founder of PolyMarket, stated that the platform processed “a couple hundred million dollars” in trading volume on election day, an all-time high [01:15:02]. He explained that PolyMarket’s accuracy stems from it being a liquid, peer-to-peer market where participants put “skin in the game” through their bets, unlike traditional pollsters who have “no consequence for being wrong” [01:22:02].
The hosts and guests frequently contrasted PolyMarket’s predictions with traditional media outlets, noting that while networks like CNN and Fox still presented the race as close, PolyMarket showed Trump with a 94% likelihood of winning [01:15:53]. The discrepancies in polls were attributed to factors like difficulty reaching people without landlines and the secret votes of some Trump supporters [01:02:40]. The “Elon effect” was also cited, suggesting that his influence might have swayed young men towards Trump [01:03:29].
Post-Election Outlook and Future Challenges
Newt Gingrich described the election as a “great historic turning point in American history” [01:25:01], emphasizing that Trump’s survival against “the Establishment” was due to “over half the American people” refusing to abandon him [01:25:39]. He suggested that if Trump also won the popular vote, he would gain the “moral authority” akin to Ronald Reagan in 1981 [01:27:47].
Steve Bannon called for “relentless” action against the “Deep State” and the “military-industrial intelligence legal law enforcement complex” [01:35:44]. He advocated for full transparency, major investigations into the FBI and CIA, and addressing the financial and economic problems as a “ticking time bomb” [01:38:51]. Bannon also pushed for the deportation of 10-15 million undocumented immigrants, viewing it as essential for “American citizens first” and for creating opportunities for African-American and Hispanic men [01:39:26]. He also suggested reopening the January 6th committee for proper investigation [01:41:49].
For Democrats, the outcome necessitates “serious soul searching” to understand why they “kicked really successful people out of the Democratic party” and failed to maintain an “inclusive tent” [02:44:02]. The party’s shift towards excessive regulation, high taxes, and engaging in “culture war dynamics” were cited as reasons for their loss [02:13:21]. The “cognitive issues” of the Democratic candidate were seen as an “albatross” that the party refused to address early enough [02:16:29].
Despite the divisions, there was a shared sentiment for unity and addressing national challenges. Ro Khanna expressed willingness to “work together to get things done” regardless of who won [01:54:19]. The potential for the US to reset expectations for the administrative class and embrace a “refounding moment” for innovation and job creation was also discussed [02:39:11]. The hope is that the election’s outcome will serve as a “wake up call” for some within the Democratic party to move towards the center [02:15:28].