From: allin
Overview of Jared Kushner’s Role and Insights
Jared Kushner served as a Senior Adviser to President Trump from 2017 to 2021 [01:46:02]. His work primarily focused on the US-Mexico relationship and leading Middle East peace efforts [01:52:50]. After leaving office, he founded Affinity Partners, a private equity firm that performs growth and private equity investing globally [02:17:10]. This firm has raised over $3.1 billion and aims to bring Gulf money into Israel and the US, fostering connections through investments [02:22:00].
Kushner’s perspective on US political dynamics shifted from a liberal upbringing in New York’s Upper East Side to an independent mindset during the Obama years, eventually becoming active in the Trump White House [03:25:00]. He grew up around Democratic politics, with his father being a significant donor and having close ties to figures like Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton, and Cory Booker [05:00:00]. His views evolved as he traveled the country and observed different perspectives, leading him to believe in a pragmatic, fact-based, and data-driven approach to policy [07:07:00].
US Foreign Policy and Global Relations
Middle East Peace Efforts and Regional Dynamics
Kushner’s work in the Trump Administration aimed to foster the emergence of a “new Middle East” characterized by economic opportunities [02:49:50]. He identifies the key divide in the region not as Sunni vs. Shia, but between leaders seeking opportunity for their people and those clinging to past issues to deflect from shortcomings [03:10:00]. This shift led to five peace deals between Israel and majority Muslim countries during the Trump Administration [07:44:00].
The Gaza Conflict and Hamas
The current Gaza conflict has roots in historical events, including the 1948 and 1967 wars, where Arab nations rejected a two-state solution and attacked Israel [02:40:00]. Hamas emerged around 1987-1988, an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, dedicated to terrorism to prevent compromise with Israel [02:05:00]. Israel’s current strategy in Gaza involves methodically eliminating Hamas’s tunnel network and leadership [01:33:00].
Kushner believes Israel’s response to the October 7th attacks has been “very wise,” methodical, and focused on garnering international support [01:28:00]. He emphasizes that Hamas is the “root cause” of the poor living conditions for Palestinians in Gaza, citing their diversion of aid (cement for tunnels, fuel for rockets) [01:59:00]. Israel has been careful to warn Gazan civilians to flee, but Hamas has reportedly prevented them from leaving, using them as human shields [02:39:00].
On the risk of horizontal escalation, Kushner notes that statements from leaders like Turkey’s Erdoğan are often “talking their book” to their populations [01:57:00]. He believes the US moving battle carriers and making strong upfront statements helped push Iran back and send a message to Hezbollah, deterring attack when Israel is at full military readiness [02:32:00].
Path to a Two-State Solution
Kushner views the concept of a Palestinian state as a “loaded term” [02:50:25], but believes a two-state solution is possible if it ensures no security threat to Israel and if the Palestinians can have a viable economy [03:12:00]. He argues that the main hurdle for Palestinians has been “bad governance” and corruption within the Palestinian Authority (PA), noting that its president, Abbas, is in his 16th-18th year of a four-year term [05:21:20]. He highlights that the PA is “more popular in Washington and in the United Nations than he is in his own country” [05:35:00].
Kushner notes that the US provided approximately $4 billion in foreign aid annually to the PA, UNRWA, Jordan, and Egypt, and previously cut funding to UNRWA due to concerns it supported “terror tunnels and rockets” [05:58:00]. This cut in funding left the PA “basically broke” and led Arab countries to lose interest in the Palestinian cause, recognizing it as “morally bankrupt” [05:58:00]. This shift, he argues, enabled the Abraham Accords and brought Saudi Arabia and Israel close to a deal [05:58:00].
“The thing that’s been holding back the Palestinian people has not been Israel, it’s been their bad leadership” [05:52:53].
For future solutions, Kushner suggests avoiding reliance on institutions with a “perfect track record of failure” like the UN or the PA [05:31:11]. He advocates for conditions-based aid and a focus on economic development driven by capitalism, arguing that despair and lack of opportunity fuel radicalization [03:32:00].
US foreign policy and its international impact and Iran
Kushner states that Iran was “totally broke” when Trump left office, selling only 100,000 barrels of oil a day, compared to 2.6 million under Obama [05:53:00]. He credits this to Trump’s approach which contrasted with the “disastrous JCPOA” (Iran nuclear deal) [03:31:00]. Now, Iran’s sales are back up to 3 million barrels a day, generating over $100 billion in oil revenue since 2021 [05:57:00].
He views Iran as the primary driver of instability in the Middle East, backing groups like Hamas and Hezbollah [03:09:00]. The current Middle East situation, in Kushner’s view, represents “the last gasp of Iran” and those pushing for destabilization [03:07:00].
The Russia-Ukraine War
Kushner believes the Russia-Ukraine war was “very easily avoidable” [02:17:00]. He asserts that during the Trump administration, the US armed Ukraine but explicitly told them not to pursue NATO membership [02:55:00]. He suggests that the Biden Administration’s conversations about Ukraine joining NATO provoked Russia’s military push, which was seen as a reaction to perceived US weakness after the Afghanistan withdrawal [02:59:00].
He argues that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is partly a proxy war for Russia and China, who seek to stretch and distract the US from other areas of direct conflict [03:07:00]. Kushner emphasizes that countries act on “interests,” not “permanent allies or permanent enemies,” and leaders should seek areas of overlapping interest to de-escalate global tensions [03:09:00].
US Political Landscape and Economic Policies
The Republican Party and US elections and political dynamics
Reflecting on US political dynamics and Trump administration, Kushner highlights Donald Trump’s entrepreneurial campaign approach, which made dollars “go a lot further” by building data operations and targeting advertisers differently [08:49:00]. Trump’s ability to move polls to him, even with heterodox viewpoints on issues like trade and illegal immigration, was a “talent” of persuasion [09:25:00].
Sachs suggests that Trump’s instincts on issues like abortion, the “forever wars,” border security, China trade, and entitlements have “invariably been proven correct” against Republican groupthink [01:12:00]. For example, Trump opposed the six-week abortion ban as a mistake in Florida, indicating a strategic awareness of issues that could hurt him in the general election [01:11:31].
Kushner observed significant infighting and “purity tests” within the Republican Party, leading to a culture where dissent on even minor points is seen negatively [01:10:00]. He asserts that if the party doesn’t win, it cannot “effectuate the things you want” [01:11:14].
US political dynamics and trade policies
Trump’s approach to trade favored bilateral deals over multilateral ones, based on the belief that multilateral agreements allow weaker countries to “gang up on the stronger party” [01:13:50]. He withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) but secured “95% of the market access” through bilateral negotiations with countries like Japan and Korea, avoiding detrimental impacts on the US auto industry [01:14:04]. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was renegotiated in a year and a half, receiving over 80 Senate votes and setting high standards for labor protection [01:14:17].
Macroeconomic Outlook and Federal Debt
Chamath Palihapitiya presents a positive macroeconomic outlook:
- M2 Money Supply: Has materially shrunk, indicating a combat against inflation [01:17:14].
- Inflation: In a “really decent place” and is expected to fall further due to a lag effect on components like rents [01:17:36].
- 10-year Break-evens: Validate the positive inflation trend [01:18:08].
- Money on the Sidelines: Over $6 trillion in money market funds, which will eventually need to find a home in financial assets [01:18:45].
- Rate Cuts: Expected by mid-year, acting as a “real accelerant” for equity markets [01:19:35].
- Soft Landing: The economy appears headed for a soft landing, which is beneficial for the sitting president [01:20:32].
Kushner notes that while the federal debt is “massively consequential” in reality, both parties will likely avoid discussing it much in the election cycle [01:17:14]. The most common solution offered is “growth,” especially productivity-driven growth [01:27:46].
Commercial Real Estate
Kushner, with experience in real estate, foresees a “massive change” in the office space sector, with many older buildings trading below land price [01:22:04]. He highlights a shift in “cities of growth,” noting that some San Francisco companies are moving to New York due to perceived better conditions regarding crime and homelessness [01:22:18]. However, the commercial real estate market is challenged by demand issues (work from home), higher refinancing costs due to interest rates, and uncertainty in long-term valuations [01:24:06]. Residential rental rates in New York and Jersey City are at historic highs [01:24:46].
AI and Productivity Gains
The discussion touches on the potential for AI to drive significant productivity gains, similar to historical technological advancements like the tractor [01:34:41]. Shopify’s reported use of Copilot to write over a million lines of code exemplifies this [01:33:05]. The economic argument for AI is that it can sustain economic growth even with declining population and labor participation rates [01:34:01].
However, the rapid development of AI models (e.g., Elon Musk’s Grok and Kai-Fu Lee’s open-source model from China) also points to a potential shift where the internet becomes “a little bit more closed” [01:41:48]. This is because companies will need to leverage their proprietary data to train and fine-tune models, making unique data assets the primary competitive advantage over the models themselves [01:42:09]. This could lead to “a lot more small companies and a lot fewer of these ginormous outcomes” [01:41:56].
Regarding regulatory frameworks for AI, Kushner expresses hope that they “won’t stifle innovation at the expense of allowing others to get ahead of us who will probably use them in ways that we would not want to see them used” [01:46:48].