From: allin
Republican Primary Dynamics
Trump vs. DeSantis Polling
Recent polling data from late March 2023 indicates significant shifts in the Republican primary landscape. News of Donald Trump’s indictment initially boosted his support, giving him a 26-percentage-point lead over Ron DeSantis among Republicans and Republican Independents [01:27:57]. However, this lead has since shrunk by 10 points to a 16-point advantage within two weeks [01:28:07]. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed a 20-point deficit for DeSantis [01:28:18].
Currently, DeSantis is identified as the only Republican candidate with a viable chance against Trump, as other candidates like Nikki Haley poll in the low single digits (3-5%) [01:28:36]. Nikki Haley, for instance, raised an “extremely unimpressive” $5 million in Q1 [01:31:13].
Impact of Indictment
The indictment of Trump by Alvin Bragg created a wave of sympathy for Trump among Republicans, serving as a form of “displeasure” registered against Bragg [01:28:56]. This initial surge in Trump’s poll ratings, however, appears to be a “temporary bounce” that is now normalizing [01:29:30].
This early primary battle is compared to the 2007 Democratic primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton [01:30:01]. At that time, Hillary had a significant lead, but Obama achieved an upset by out-fundraising and out-hustling, especially in early primary states, and by developing a “turn the page” narrative later in the election cycle [01:30:11]. The first Republican primary is in February, suggesting ample time for dynamics to change [01:30:37].
Candidate Strategies
DeSantis and Culture Wars
Ron DeSantis has adopted a strategy of engaging in “culture wars,” which appears to benefit him in the Republican primary and potentially the general election [01:32:01]. His conflict with Disney, stemming from a parental rights bill, is an example [01:31:53]. This bill focused on prohibiting the teaching of “gender ideology” in schools and giving parents the right to know what their children are taught [01:32:31]. Disney’s opposition to this bill, which they labeled a “don’t say gay bill” (a description disputed as factually inaccurate), led to a “Brand disaster” for the company [01:32:55]. Polling suggests Disney’s brand approval among parents, particularly Republican-leaning ones, has significantly declined [01:33:50].
Parental Rights and Education
The issue of parental rights in education, particularly regarding curriculum content and gender ideology, is highly polarizing in Political discourse and public perception in America [01:35:19]. While a small group, the transgender issue is a “lightning rod” that garners disproportionate attention [01:35:32]. DeSantis’s approach is to use this issue to appeal to his base and potentially scale into the general election [01:35:51].
A broader concern tied to these culture war issues is the “shockingly bad” quality of education in the United States, attributed to declining standards, the removal of advanced subjects, and union influence [01:36:36]. There is a “significant ideological component” that has “crept into these schools” [01:36:56]. A non-ideological education focusing on math, science, technology, history, and creativity is desired by parents across the political spectrum [01:37:07].