From: allin
Discussions around the viability and impact of third-party efforts in US elections and political dynamics have gained traction, particularly in light of perceived dissatisfaction with the dominant two-party system [01:15:10]. Political analysts and commentators have debated whether the current political climate could pave the way for a significant third-party breakthrough [01:16:02].
Historical Context
Historically, third-party candidates have struggled to gain widespread support. Ross Perot, for instance, managed to secure 19% of the vote [01:16:10]. Some believe that Perot’s campaign presented a missed opportunity to establish a lasting third-party presence [01:29:30].
Current Landscape and Viability
Dissatisfaction with Mainstream Candidates
A significant portion of the American populace expresses discontent with the options presented by the major parties. For example, polls in early 2024 indicated that 86% of Americans across both parties believed President Biden was too old to be president, and 59% felt both Biden and Trump were too old [01:08:53]. This widespread voter sentiment suggests an opening for alternatives [01:08:47].
The reluctance of a candidate like Biden to undergo a basic cognitive test, which is seen as a tell that he might fail, further fuels public concern [01:11:17]. This, combined with controlled public appearances, can lead voters to question the transparency and legitimacy of the leadership [01:20:50].
The Role of Insiders and the Electoral System
Critics argue that the current electoral system, particularly the caucus system, allows party insiders to decide who the nominee is [01:14:50]. These insiders are perceived as benefiting from maintaining the status quo, which can lead to a sense of corruption and undemocratic processes [01:15:00]. If citizens lose faith in democracy, it could result in calls for a third party or more extreme actions [01:15:34].
Potential for a “Breakout Season”
Given the current political dynamics, some believe that the 2024 election could be a “breakout season” for a third party [01:16:23].
RFK’s Candidacy
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) is seen as a specific political figure whose candidacy could potentially lay the groundwork for a new third party [01:28:35]. If RFK can secure 30% or more support in some states, it could lead to a powerful outcome with “huge longitudinal benefits to America” by establishing a new political infrastructure [01:29:00]. His campaign’s success in getting on presidential ballots in 50 states is considered a critical step [01:28:44].
No Labels
“No Labels” is another organization making efforts to create a third-party option [01:28:00]. There’s a “very reasonable chance” (estimated 30-50%) that this third party could be created after the presidential election [01:28:22]. The organization has engaged with potential supporters, suggesting interest in their concept [01:29:53].
Obstacles and Challenges
Despite the potential opening, significant challenges remain for third-party efforts:
- Late Timing: The 2024 election is considered too late for new candidates not already in the race [01:14:11].
- Incumbent Resistance: Incumbent candidates like President Biden have stated their intention to be the nominee, and there’s no clear mechanism to remove a candidate who has won necessary primary votes against their will [01:27:01].
- Party Loyalty: The prevailing two-party system often means voters align with their party regardless of individual candidate issues [01:21:31].
- Media and Debate Access: Refusal by major candidates to debate or subject themselves to rigorous interviews can hinder the public’s ability to fully assess them, further entrenching the two-party narrative [01:21:16].
- Staff Interests: The staff of a sitting president may have a vested interest in maintaining a “weak president who is borderline incapacitated” as it grants them more administrative power [01:31:38].
Ultimately, the power lies with the voters to take action and resolve to a solution if they are fed up with the current system [01:15:47].