From: allin
This article outlines the observed political and economic strategies and roles of various figures during the 2024 US election cycle, based on on-the-ground observations and expert commentary.
Donald Trump’s Strategy and Ideology
Donald Trump’s political approach is characterized by an “America First” ideology, distinct from traditional Republicanism [06:06:00]. His supporters are described as “Real Americans” on the conservative side [06:24:00].
Key aspects include:
- Voter Turnout – Trump’s campaign saw strong rural turnout, described as “unprecedented” [04:20:00], while urban areas were “not so good” [04:26:00]. Notable support included 51% of the 18-29 vote in Wisconsin, which was unexpected for Republicans [04:34:00], and an estimated 20% of the African-American vote [04:46:00]. Donald Trump Jr. noted a “cultural shift” seeing more African-American men taking selfies with him in places like Detroit [04:59:00].
- Economic Focus – The core ideology centers on prioritizing American working-class and lower-middle-class citizens [01:30:40]. Trump’s focus is on addressing the nation’s financial and economic problems, including the national debt [01:38:38], and deportations [01:38:56].
- Government Efficiency (DOGE) – Trump aims to significantly cut government spending and bureaucracy. He has engaged Elon Musk in discussions about a “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) [08:35:00]. Supporters believe Musk, akin to an “Einstein of our era” [09:08:00], could help cut a “trillion or two trillion” from the debt, similar to how he reduced Twitter’s workforce by 80% while improving its function [09:44:00].
- Combating the “Deep State” – A central tenet of Trump’s strategy is to dismantle the “Deep State” and “administrative state” [01:28:15]. This involves challenging unelected bureaucrats who are perceived to “slow roll” or “stymie” the will of the elected president [01:09:52]. The previous administration’s “biggest miss” was not effectively addressing the swamp [01:11:12]. The plan for Trump 2.0 involves careful team selection, blocking those who would obstruct, and appointing “killers” willing to fight the bureaucracy [01:17:00].
- Media Engagement – Donald Trump and JD Vance utilized lengthy podcasts like Rogan and Lex Fridman to appeal to “normal” people [02:20:00]. Elon Musk’s work with X (formerly Twitter) is seen as crucial for transparency, showing “what’s going on” [01:23:44], enabling communication, and quickly responding to election-related issues like polling location shutdowns [01:29:58].
Republican Party Shift
The Republican Party, under Trump’s influence, has moved away from “traditional republicanism” and “traditional conservatism” [08:04:00]. The focus is now on the “America First” agenda [08:07:00]. Steve Bannon asserts that the Republican Party’s architecture has been rebuilt through grassroots efforts and registrations [01:31:47].
- Policy Divergence – There’s a “big divergence” between “swamp Republicans” (establishment) and conservatives nationwide [07:39:00]. For example, Mitch McConnell’s view that Ukraine is the top issue for Republicans is disputed; surveys by Donald Trump Jr. indicate very few Republicans consider Ukraine a top 10 issue [06:33:00].
- Government Spending – Both Republicans and Democrats are seen as guilty of excessive spending, with politicians “buy[ing] their vote with money that we don’t really have” [01:17:42]. Trump’s unique position of not running for re-election again could allow him to enact significant change as a “business guy” [01:18:04].
- Military Spending Critique – Mike Rogers, a Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, agrees that the defense budget is problematic [01:58:00]. There are concerns about cost overruns, particularly with the F-35 program, and a system rigged by five prime contractors [01:45:00]. A new approach is needed for “outcomes oriented defense procurement” [02:10:00]. Generals are seen as having an incentive to spend, given their post-retirement board seats at defense companies [02:57:00]. Trump reportedly saved a billion dollars on the Air Force One contract simply by negotiating [02:16:00].
Democratic Party and Kamala Harris’s Challenges
The Democratic Party’s strategy and public figures’ influence have been critiqued for internal issues and a perceived disconnect with mainstream voters.
- Ideology and Messaging – The Democratic Party’s campaign largely focused on abortion rights and an “inclusive democracy” [01:46:00]. However, critics argue they needed a clearer vision for creating “good paying jobs” and promoting manufacturing [01:57:00]. There’s a perception that the party is increasingly represented by individuals “pretty far left of the mainstream” [04:41:45], who may “hate capitalism and entrepreneurship” [04:02:07].
- Lack of Competition – Dean Phillips criticized the party’s “selection instead of election” approach, stating that the public wants “competition” and “battle-tested” candidates, not “anointments” or “coronations” [03:42:00]. The lack of a “speedrun primary” when Joe Biden stepped down was seen as a major mistake, not allowing Kamala Harris enough time to introduce herself to voters [01:53:00].
- Engagement with Public Figures – Phillips advocated for figures like Vice President Harris to appear on podcasts like “All-In” and “Joe Rogan” to “talk to folks” and “engage in ideas” [01:5:05]. This contrasts with a perceived Democratic strategy of “condemnation” rather than “invitation” to bring more people into the party [03:53:00].
- Policy Criticisms – Democrats are perceived to have veered too far towards regulation, making it difficult to do business [02:13:24]. Specific issues include border security, overseas wars, and the impact of “wokeism” and “Dei” (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives [03:41:00]. While DEI was initially well-intentioned, it has “complicated matters” and “turned off a lot of voters” [03:37:00]. The focus on “equity” (equal outcomes) is seen as problematic, with a need to blend meritocracy with inclusion without compromise [02:47:00].
- Economic Disparities – Dean Phillips highlights concerns about growing disparities in income and wealth, believing that if basic needs like healthcare and education are covered (like in Sweden), the wealth of billionaires is less resented [04:41:00]. The focus should be on “raising the foundation” for everyone, rather than just redistribution [04:39:00].
- Healthcare System – Phillips, having traveled globally, described the U.S. healthcare system as “corrupt” due to the influence of pharmaceutical companies and insurers, which work against natural remedies they cannot monetize [04:32:00]. He also highlighted insurance companies profiting significantly while people struggle with medical bills [04:51:00].
Broader Political Dynamics
- Voter Sentiment – There is a widespread sentiment that people are “sick of the division” in the country and want to “move forward” [01:53:00].
- Pundits vs. Prediction Markets – The accuracy of traditional polls is heavily questioned. Prediction markets like PolyMarket, where participants wager real money, are argued to be a more accurate and “liquid venue” for price discovery and forecasting election outcomes [01:18:00]. Pollsters are described as merely “pundits” or “entertainers” with “no skin in the game” or consequence for being wrong [02:22:00]. The market’s ability to filter information and provide clear probabilities is seen as a “10x plus improvement” over traditional polling [02:37:00].
- Immigration Policy – Steve Bannon advocates for the deportation of all 15 million undocumented immigrants, arguing it’s essential for national sovereignty and to prevent crushing opportunities for African-American and Hispanic men [01:39:00]. However, others, like Jason, emphasize the need for empathy due to the circumstances of immigrants seeking a better life [02:39:00]. The “open border” policy is seen as problematic as it increases the problem [02:43:00].
- January 6th – While some seek to put January 6th behind them, Steve Bannon insists on reconvening the J6 committee to investigate what happened, including the FBI’s role and why Trump’s orders were not followed [01:41:50]. This is viewed as crucial for addressing the “Deep State” and ensuring such events “never happen again” [01:42:56].
- Impact of Media Figures – The influence of media and public figures on elections and discourse is significant. The contrast between Trump and Vance appearing on long-form podcasts and Kamala Harris not doing so is highlighted [02:20:00]. Elon Musk’s platform X is credited with showing people “what’s going on” and enabling communication [01:23:44]. There’s also a discussion about public figures seeming to align with a certain party (Democrats) after controversies [01:58:00].