From: allin
The 2024 US elections and political dynamics have highlighted the significant and evolving role of media and public discourse in shaping society, as well as the impact of prominent public figures on political outcomes [00:00:00]. Discussions during an election night podcast underscored how alternative media platforms and influential individuals can bypass traditional gatekeepers, affecting public perception and voter behavior [01:20:26].
The Role of Alternative Media and Social Platforms
The influence of alternative platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and podcasts on election outcomes was a major talking point [01:22:29].
- X (formerly Twitter): Elon Musk’s platform was credited with making the election competitive by “showing people what’s going on” and enabling real-time communication and monitoring of potential voting irregularities [01:27:27]. This transparency was described as a “disinfectant” [01:03:03]. The “Elon effect” was speculated to have swung the vote among young men, a demographic that typically doesn’t vote but has an affinity for Musk and his values of innovation and entrepreneurship [01:03:33].
- Podcasts: Podcasts were recognized as having a “major role” in the election season [01:05:03]. Dean Phillips noted that many people were introduced to him through podcasts like the All-In podcast, rather than traditional networks [01:34:09]. There was a strong belief that presidential candidates should engage more with podcasts like Joe Rogan’s to “talk to folks” and “engage in ideas” [01:50:03]. Donald Trump and JD Vance’s appearances on lengthy podcasts like Rogan and Lex Fridman were seen as highly effective in appealing to the “normal person” [02:44:21].
Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Polling
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, were presented as a superior and more accurate source of information for understanding election likelihoods compared to traditional polls and Mainstream Media and Its Influence on Politics [01:20:55].
- Polymarket’s CEO explained that their platform reflects market prices based on probabilities, driven by diverse participants with “skin in the game,” rather than the potentially biased or consequence-free opinions of pollsters [01:57:51].
- The accuracy of Polymarket was contrasted sharply with traditional media outlets, which were accused of presenting election results in a “murky” or “entertainment trap” manner, designed to create “cliffhangers” rather than clear information [01:21:26].
- The significant divergence between pollster predictions and Polymarket’s odds, particularly in the lead-up to election day, led to questions about why pollsters were “so far off” [01:41:42]. Reasons suggested included an inability to reach certain demographics (like the Amish, who historically don’t vote and don’t have phones) and a reluctance of some voters to reveal their true preferences to pollsters [01:02:40].
“The thing about Poly Market is that it’s like it’s Theo in terms of global market share it’s like 90 something percent of the global market so very rarely is there another more liquid venue for people to are Poly Market with” [01:16:05]
“The beauty of the fact that P Market exists is I don’t need to give a about what she’s saying” [01:50:46]
Impact of Public Figures and Endorsements
Several public figures were cited for their significant influence on voter sentiment and the broader political discourse and public perception in America.
- Donald Trump Jr.: Described as a “tremendous asset” to his father, with a finger on the pulse of the electorate due to extensive campaigning and direct interaction with people on the ground [02:51:13]. He emphasized that the prevailing ideology is “America First,” distinct from traditional Republicanism [06:06:04].
- Elon Musk: His presence on platforms like X and his willingness to engage with figures like Trump and Vance on podcasts were seen as a crucial factor in swaying public opinion [01:03:03]. He was even credited with swinging the election due to his appeal to young men who love innovation and entrepreneurship [01:03:29].
- Dean Phillips: His “brave” decision to challenge Joe Biden and articulate concerns about his cognitive decline was highlighted [03:22:21]. Phillips noted that the Democratic party’s choice of “selection instead of election” for their candidate led to predictable outcomes [03:42:00]. His willingness to speak “the quiet part out loud” demonstrated a profile in courage within the Democratic party [03:32:00].
- Steve Bannon: A key architect of the MAGA movement, Bannon articulated the core ideology as putting “American people in particularly working class and lower middle class people first” [01:30:44]. He emphasized the Grassroots effort and the perceived failure of traditional media to address working-class concerns [01:32:44].
Party Strategies and Ideology
The current political climate and the impact on elections reflect a significant ideological divide and strategic missteps by both major parties.
- Republican Strategy (America First): Don Jr. articulated that the perceived Republican victory was not a win for the traditional Republican party but for the “America First” ideology [06:06:04]. This ideology emphasizes issues like government spending, border security, and avoiding “forever wars,” in contrast to traditional Republican priorities like Ukraine funding [06:33:00].
- Democratic Strategy (Perceived Failures): Dean Phillips and others criticized the Democratic party for:
- Lack of Competition: Prioritizing “selection instead of election,” especially by not allowing a full primary process for the presidential candidate [03:42:00].
- Ignoring Base Concerns: Failing to address working-class people’s concerns about economic opportunities, declining schools, and overseas wars [01:32:51].
- Alienating Key Demographics: Losing support from demographics like African-American men and Hispanic families, who feel “fed up” with perceived top-down policies like DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and “wokeism” [01:31:00].
- Contempt for Capitalism: A perceived “anti-American” tendency within parts of the party to hold entrepreneurship, venture capital, and innovation in contempt [02:22:21]. This was seen as “the stupidest strategy” given Americans’ love for new products [02:22:21].
Voter Turnout and Demographics
Observations on voter turnout highlighted unexpected shifts:
- Rural vs. Urban Turnout: Good, “almost unprecedented” rural turnout for Republicans was noted, while turnout in cities was “not so good” [04:20:00].
- Youth and Minority Vote: Republicans achieved 51% of the 18-29 vote in Wisconsin and pushed 20% of the African-American vote there, which was seen as unprecedented for Republicans [04:34:00]. These shifts were attributed to “cultural shifts on the ground” rather than traditional party lines [04:59:00].
- Amish Turnout: A significant and unexpected turnout of Amish voters in Pennsylvania, motivated by perceived Democratic interference in their farming practices, was highlighted as a factor missed by traditional polls [01:02:01].
The “Deep State” and Bureaucracy
Concerns were raised about the “Deep State” and administrative bureaucracy, which are perceived to resist changes desired by elected officials:
- The bureaucracy is seen as resistant to cuts and reforms, as they cannot simply be fired, requiring time and process [09:54:00].
- Former Speaker Newt Gingrich characterized millions of bureaucrats, lobbyists, reporters, and academics as collectively believing they have “the legitimate right to impose on the rest of us whatever they believe” [01:28:31].
- Steve Bannon emphasized the need to “deconstruct” the “military-industrial intelligence legal law enforcement complex,” requiring “tough people” in key departments like the DOJ, FBI, and CIA [01:35:44]. He advocated for full transparency and major investigations to address the “more radical Rogue element of the administrative State” [01:36:06].
- The “use it or lose it” philosophy of government budgets and a lack of incentive for bureaucrats and generals to save money were cited as reasons for excessive spending [01:00:00]. This highlights a fundamental challenge in achieving government efficiency, even with a mandate from the people [09:54:00].
Looking Forward
The outcome of the election was seen by many as a “refounding moment” for the United States, allowing for a reset of expectations for the administrative class [02:39:15]. The shift in political discourse and public perception in America suggests a move away from traditional party allegiances towards an “America First” ideology, driven by a desire for economic opportunity, border security, and a re-evaluation of engagement in overseas conflicts [06:09:00].