From: allin
The political dynamics in the US elections have become a central topic of discussion, with a particular focus on the Democratic party’s challenges and strategies and the US presidential election and potential candidates [00:04:46].
Prediction Markets vs. Polls
This election cycle, there’s a strong focus on prediction markets (betting markets) as indicators of who is winning, contrasting with traditional polls [00:06:10]. These markets are seen as potentially more accurate because participants have “skin in the game” [00:06:20].
Kamala Harris’s Ascendance
According to one prediction market, Kamala Harris is now the favorite to be the Democratic nominee [00:06:30]. In a 24-hour period before the taping (Wednesday, July 3), VP Harris’s chances rose from 18% to 50% [00:06:41]. Concurrently, President Biden’s chances dropped from 66% to 28% [00:06:48]. Other potential candidates like Michelle Obama and Gretchen Whitmer were in the 1-2% range, though they were low single digits before a recent debate [00:06:53]. On the morning of the taping, Biden and Harris were nearly even in the markets [00:07:05].
Biden’s Potential Withdrawal
The New York Times reported that President Biden is considering dropping out of the race [00:07:11], though a White House spokesman denied this as “absolutely false” [00:07:22]. Prediction markets indicate a high chance of Biden dropping out, rising from 60% to 77% after the debate [00:07:34].
Upcoming Interview and its Stakes
Biden is scheduled for a sit-down interview with George Stephanopoulos, set to record on Friday (July 5) and air in two parts on Saturday and Sunday [00:07:50]. The Biden presidency is seen as largely hinging on this interview [00:08:27]. If he can appear sharp and responsive, it might quell speculation; otherwise, he could be “done” [00:08:48]. The expectation is that the media, currently in a “feeding frenzy,” will likely provide a fair representation of the interview [00:08:11].
Democratic Party Strategy
If Democratic Party leaders evaluate replacing Biden, they must first publicly support him to buy time to select a new candidate [00:10:00]. This strategy would allow them to figure out how to transfer the $120 million raised for Biden to the new candidate [00:10:46] (though it can only be moved to Harris) [00:10:51].
One prediction suggests a “Democratic primary speedrun” with five debates in ten weeks, leading to Kamala Harris becoming president if Biden resigns [00:11:53]. This process is viewed as strengthening the party by demonstrating a democratic selection process after a resignation [00:12:47]. However, others view this as a “dumbest prediction” [00:13:01], arguing that a public debate shows weakness and the party needs to select a leader directly [00:13:33].
Kamala Harris as the Sole Alternative
With the feeding frenzy around Biden’s fitness, Kamala Harris is seen by some as the “only alternative” to Biden, according to prediction markets [00:13:41]. The party realizes they cannot sideline Harris without alienating major constituencies and losing roughly a billion dollars in contributions tied to the Biden-Harris campaign [00:13:54]. Therefore, if Biden steps aside, Harris is seen as the “only feasible candidate” [00:14:24].
The “Outsider” Option
Some argue that an outsider like Jamie Dimon or Bob Iger, who could self-fund and challenge Trump and Kamala Harris 2024 presidential race dynamics on merit, could be the strategist’s move to defeat Trump [00:14:29]. However, this is countered by the historical failure of Mike Bloomberg’s billionaire candidacy and the Democratic party’s challenges and strategies as an “ultimate insider party” that dislikes billionaires [00:15:31]. They would be unlikely to hand control to an outsider [00:16:11]. The argument is made that if the party were rational and truly wanted to win, they would consider an outsider who polls well [00:18:08].
The Dilemma of Donor Class and Leadership
There is a perceived rift between the donor class and the Democratic Party leadership [00:19:16]. The donor class does not want to lose, and their reactions to the current situation might signal a shift in who they support in the future [00:19:20]. Prediction markets suggest it will be either Biden or Harris, not a free-for-all [00:19:37].
”Identity Politics Trap”
The Democrats may be in an “identity politics trap,” meaning they feel compelled to run Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign and election strategies regardless of perceived electability, even if a highly capable white male could self-fund [00:24:07]. This is due to their emphasis on inclusiveness [00:24:43].
Concerns about Biden’s Fitness and Media Cover-up
If Biden is not fit to run, then he is not fit to serve out the rest of his term [00:19:50]. If he resigns, Harris would be sworn in as Commander-in-Chief, potentially giving her the gravitas needed to be perceived as ready for the role [00:20:00].
There has been a “huge cover-up” of Biden’s cognitive decline for months, if not years, with media outlets actively suppressing the story [00:27:04]. Anyone who raised questions about his cognitive abilities was treated as partisan or a liar [00:27:12]. Videos showing Biden appearing disoriented were dismissed as “fakes” [00:27:42].
The situation is seen as dangerous for the country, as it leaves the choice between a president with limited cognition and a potentially “untested, inexperienced, and clueless” new president, especially during a precarious foreign policy situation [00:21:46]. The Democratic Party’s strategy of limiting access to the president is viewed as not dispelling concerns about his capabilities [00:26:29].
Advice for Democrats: A Dignified Campaign
One piece of advice for Democrats is to let Biden run a “dignified campaign and lose,” similar to Bob Dole in 1996 [00:32:25]. Republicans in 1996 pulled financing from Dole’s campaign in the final month and redirected it to House and Senate candidates, allowing him to lose gracefully while maintaining strength in other races [00:31:52]. This approach avoids putting an “untested, unexperienced, clueless president” into office [00:32:36].
The alternative suggestion is for the Democrats to “embrace an outsider” who can bring money and credibility to the table, win votes, and compete effectively against Trump, rather than clinging to traditional political machines [00:32:48].
Current Stance and Outlook
As of the taping, Biden went on a campaign call, stating, “I am running. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win” [01:21:09]. Despite this, some believe it is more likely than not that Biden will not be replaced, primarily because the only feasible alternative is Harris, who is perceived as potentially worse and more dangerous for the country [01:21:22]. The preference, even for those who disagree with Biden’s policies, is for him to finish his term due to the continuity he provides [01:21:44].
The upcoming 2024 US election dynamics and Kamala Harris’s policy proposals face significant challenges, with a tight “shot clock” for Democrats to resolve their leadership questions by mid-August at the latest [00:25:04]. Internal “fissures” and leaks within the Biden team, such as the Axios article identifying a few individuals controlling access to the president, suggest mounting pressure [00:25:38]. The question of whether Biden has a hidden diagnosis remains, though a White House spokesperson explicitly denied it, stating he hasn’t taken the relevant tests [00:26:42].