From: allin
After President Joe Biden’s formal exit from the presidential race, Kamala Harris has emerged as the clear frontrunner and likely Democratic nominee [00:49:01].
Path to Nomination
Biden formally exited the race on Sunday after donors and party leadership reportedly “politely asked him to enjoy his retirement,” though insider accounts suggest he was unhappy and felt betrayed [00:49:01]. Public support quickly shifted to his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who appears to have already secured the nomination [00:49:17].
A survey conducted by the Associated Press indicated that Harris already had the endorsement of enough delegates to secure the nomination in the first round of convention voting [00:49:23]. This will be officially confirmed at the Democratic National Convention, which begins August 19th in Chicago [00:49:33]. Currently, no rivals have stepped forward for Harris, and many potential competitors have already endorsed her [00:49:38]. This includes Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer [00:49:45]. As a result, Harris is now considered a 90% favorite for the Democratic nomination [00:50:01].
The process of her nomination has been described as neither “open” nor “transparent and Democratic,” largely due to the need to avoid returning substantial campaign funds, which would hinder the party’s ability to fight a federal election [00:50:13]. There was no “speedrun primary” or “open convention,” as delegates quickly aligned behind Harris to end any potential chaos [00:57:20].
Political Positioning and Agenda
Over the past three and a half years as Vice President, Harris has been relatively “under the radar” or “Mia” [00:50:52]. A key challenge she faces is defining her political beliefs and agenda to the public [00:51:10]. While Joe Biden was a traditional centrist who appealed to the progressive left, Harris’s precise political stance remains unclear [01:01:15]. She must clarify whether she is a centrist, a moderate Democrat, or a progressive Democrat [01:01:36].
A notable past controversy involves her shifting role regarding the border, where she was initially named “border czar” but then seemingly distanced from the title [00:51:00]. This highlights a need for her to present a clear case of what she believes in over the next two months leading up to the DNC [00:51:21].
Running Mate Considerations
The choice of Harris’s running mate will be crucial in defining her ticket [00:51:27]. Potential candidates include:
- Josh Shapiro: The current Governor of Pennsylvania, considered a rising star in the Democratic party. He could be key to securing Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, which would be powerful for a narrow victory [00:57:49]. There have been discussions, including on CNN, about whether the country is “ready for a Jewish vice president,” reflecting underlying concerns about anti-Semitism given the current climate surrounding the Gaza conflict [00:59:50]. Some argue that selecting a Jewish leader could be seen as “polarizing” and lead to “more protests,” reflecting a form of “cancel culture against Jews” [01:03:59].
- Mark Kelly: A Senator from Arizona and former astronaut, who appears moderate on paper [00:58:48]. He presents as tough and has spoken of being tougher on the border, which is a perceived weakness for Harris [00:59:06]. If he can secure Arizona’s vote, he would be a strong contender [00:59:16].
- Roy Cooper: The Governor of North Carolina, who could also be a leading contender and help secure that state’s significant electoral votes [01:02:26].
The decision for Harris will be whether to choose someone who aligns philosophically with her (once she defines her philosophy) or someone who represents slightly different ideas to broaden her appeal [01:00:51].
Election Dynamics
With Harris as the presumptive nominee, the 2024 US election is now a “dead heat” against Donald Trump [00:55:04]. While some polls show a tie, others indicate a slight lead for Harris (Reuters/Ipsos: 2% lead) or Trump (CNN: 3% lead) [00:55:09].
Harris is seen as having “more upside than Biden” because she can actively campaign, unlike Biden who was perceived as a “surefire loser” after the presidential debate [00:55:42]. Her best path to victory involves holding onto the “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) even if she loses swing states where Trump is currently ahead (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina) [00:58:17]. This could result in a razor-thin victory of 270-268 electoral votes [00:58:30].
A significant challenge for Harris in Michigan is the large Arab and Muslim population’s strong opposition to the administration’s support of Israel [01:06:29]. The administration is attempting to reposition itself on this issue, as evidenced by Harris snubbing Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Washington [01:06:37]. Given Michigan’s narrow 2% margin of error, winning back this vote by appearing more progressive on the Gaza War could provide a significant electoral advantage [01:06:47]. This situation also plays into the broader issue of identity politics, where defining people by their race, gender, background, or religion can lead to “picking winners and losers” and potentially creating “unfortunate snowball” effects [01:07:21].