From: allin
The upcoming US presidential election is characterized by significant political and economic dynamics, with discussions focusing on the incumbent President, Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump, as well as potential shifts in the Democratic nomination process [00:32:57].
Political Landscape and Economic Perception
The perception of the economy in the United States is often influenced by partisan affiliation [00:14:35]. A “partisan economic perception” phenomenon shows a significant disparity between how Democrats and Republicans view the economy, especially during presidencies [00:14:35]. For instance, under President Bill Clinton, there was a tight consensus with only a 3-4 percentage point difference between Democrats and Republicans on whether the economy was good [00:15:01]. However, this disparity grew under subsequent administrations, reaching as high as 25 points, with perceptions flipping based on the party in power [00:15:32]. Moments of tighter consensus typically occur during crises, such as the dot-com crash, the Great Financial Crisis, and the pandemic [00:16:09].
This partisan perception suggests that individuals’ views on economic progression are often buoyed by the political ideology of the candidate in office and how they popularize their actions [00:17:18]. The All-In Podcast hosts acknowledge that people feel happier if they are progressing, regardless of their absolute economic state [00:16:44].
President Joe Biden’s Position
President Biden continues to insist he is running for president and will not step down [01:06:16]. Despite this, there has been increasing pressure and concern regarding his fitness to serve:
- George Clooney wrote an op-ed in the New York Times stating, “I love Joe Biden, but we need a new nominee” [01:06:27]. Clooney co-hosted a fundraiser for Biden two weeks prior that raised $30 million [01:06:35].
- NBC reported that Biden has “lost his donor base,” with anonymous sources stating that money has “absolutely shut off” and monthly contributions could be down by half or more [01:07:08].
- Adam Schiff suggested Biden should “slow down and make the right decision” and “get new counsel” [01:07:23].
- Nancy Pelosi gave a non-answer when asked if she supports Biden as the nominee [01:07:34].
- Tim Kaine stated, “complete confidence Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing,” which is interpreted as a suggestion not to run [01:07:40].
Allegations of a Cover-Up
There are strong claims of an “active cover-up” by the White House regarding President Biden’s cognitive state [01:08:00]. This includes:
- A neurologist reportedly visited the White House [01:08:47].
- Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre’s responses to questions about Biden seeing a neurologist were described as “bluffing” and “lying” [01:09:00]. She confirmed he sees a neurologist three times a year as part of his physical but refused to share names for “security reasons” [01:09:34].
- Critics argue that if there were a cognitive test showing no decline, the White House would release it [01:10:23].
- George Clooney knew about concerns after a fundraiser a month prior [01:11:43].
- Olivia Nuzzi reportedly had a story for New York Magazine six months prior but was “afraid to publish it” due to anticipated White House pushback [01:11:54].
- Chuck Todd disclosed that a cabinet official in the Biden White House told him two years ago that they “could not get a meeting with the president because the president was effectively incapacitated” [01:12:10].
It is suggested that media outlets and figures withheld this information to “weaken Bernie” Sanders initially and then to “get Biden through the election,” creating a narrative to avoid reporting the truth about his condition [01:13:38]. The turning point was a debate where “the whole country could see it,” leading to panic and a realization that a new candidate might be needed [01:13:09].
Former presidential candidate Dean Phillips had stated seven months prior that Biden is “clearly in decline” and that he did not think Biden would be in a position to continue leading the country, a sentiment he believed was shared by 75% of the country [01:13:51]. Phillips reportedly called other Democratic leaders like JB Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer, urging them to challenge Biden, but was told to “shut up” [01:14:29].
Democratic Nomination and Presidential Race Scenarios
If President Biden steps down, there are two main scenarios discussed for the Democratic Nomination:
The “Speedrun Primary”
A “speedrun primary” or “primary sprint” has been floated as a unique idea by Democratic party insiders [01:16:53]. This scenario involves:
- Biden stepping down as nominee mid-July [01:18:18].
- Biden announcing a new system with support from Kamala Harris [01:18:22].
- Candidates having a few days to enter the race [01:18:26].
- Six candidates (those with the most delegate votes) running positive-only campaigns in the month leading up to the Democratic National Convention (DNC) [01:18:32].
- Weekly forums moderated by “culture icons” like Michelle Obama, Oprah, or Taylor Swift [01:18:41].
- The nominee being chosen by delegates using ranked-choice voting before the DNC on August 9th [01:18:50].
This idea is seen as gaining currency on the left [01:19:07].
Kamala Harris as Nominee
Another perspective is that if Biden steps out, the Democrats will “just have to go to Kamala Harris” as the nominee [01:19:27]. This is seen as a way to avoid the chaos of an open primary and reset the race [01:19:19].
Donald Trump’s Position and Campaign
Donald Trump is currently perceived as being “much more presidential” and “normal” in his “Trump 2.0” phase [01:00:33]. He has reportedly moved to the middle on issues like abortion and immigration [01:00:47]. His debate performance was described as “fantastic,” with him sitting back and allowing his opponent to falter [01:00:53].
Arguments for a Trump presidency include:
- His previous stance on the border was perceived as correct [01:16:19].
- The economy was “pretty good” under his administration [01:16:21].
- His re-election is seen by some as a rebuke to “hoaxes and coverups” perpetuated by the Democratic Party [01:20:01]. These alleged hoaxes include the Steele dossier, “suckers and losers,” “very fine people,” “best version of Biden,” and “cheap fake” claims [01:20:16].
- His decision to debate on CNN, despite unfavorable conditions (chosen hosts, no audience, mic turned off), was seen as calling the “bluff” of the Biden campaign [01:22:00].
Broader Political Dynamics
The current political climate is seen as a time of governmental turnover, where incumbents are tossed out during difficult periods of joblessness, inflation, and high costs [01:02:22]. There is a “pent-up demand for reform” as people feel the system is rigged and corrupt [01:09:05]. This desire for reform is not necessarily an embrace of socialism, but rather a search for a “nationalist populist solution” [01:02:07], [01:03:05].
The hosts note a “mindblowing” reluctance of leaders like Biden and Macron to make sensible adjustments on immigration, despite public desire for reasonable borders [01:42:07]. This resistance to reform is perceived as a strategy where the center-left enables radical progressives rather than making moderate adjustments that would be more popular [01:00:17].