From: jimruttshow8596
This article provides an analysis of the ongoing RussiaUkraine conflict and military strategy, exploring potential scenarios and their broader geopolitical implications. [00:00:00]
Initial Days of the Invasion
In the first few days of the conflict, Russian forces entered Ukraine, capturing several important cities, roads, and routes, but had not yet taken major urban centers like Kyiv. [00:01:35] The Ukrainian government surprised many observers by resisting longer than expected, though initial expectations for their survival were low given Russia’s superior equipment and personnel on paper. [00:01:54]
Scenarios for the Conflict’s Future
There are several potential outcomes for the conflict, each with distinct military and political implications. [00:02:23]
1. Russian Victory (Likeliest Scenario)
A Russian victory, considered the likeliest overall scenario, would involve tolerable casualties for Russia. [00:02:30] Unlike Western liberal democracies, Russia has a greater capacity to absorb casualties. [00:02:46]
Military and Demographic Considerations
The demographics of both Russia and Ukraine are unfavorable, as both are “very old countries” with a significant proportion of young people having left for work in more developed economies. [00:03:07] Ukraine may see volunteers in the coming weeks, but a manpower shortage of trained soldiers capable of operating modern, expensive military equipment (like rocket artillery, modern tanks, and jet fighters) could emerge. [00:03:28] Modern warfare requires extended training periods due to its sophistication. [00:04:10]
In this scenario, Russia would retain sufficient hardware and avoid excessive losses of highly trained troops. [00:04:19]
Territorial and Political Outcomes
Russia would likely occupy the eastern half of Ukraine, with the western half either surrendering or becoming a rump state. [00:04:26] Russia would establish puppet states, potentially integrating the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic into the Russian Federation, as Crimea was. [00:04:42]
Economic and Geopolitical Impact
Victorious Russia would face significant financial and other isolation but lean heavily on China. [00:05:40] Despite sanctions, Russian gas continues to flow into Europe. [00:05:55] Russia is preparing for future energy exports to China via Arctic ports and pipelines, signifying a final economic decoupling from Europe. [00:06:28] While Russia’s economy is relatively small (comparable to Spain’s GDP), its energy exports are difficult to replace for Europe. [00:08:15] Germany, in particular, faces challenges due to its reliance on Russian natural gas and its decision to close nuclear plants. [00:09:19]
A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely embolden China, potentially leading to an invasion of Taiwan within three years. [00:11:06]
2. Stalemate (European Syria)
This is considered the most unhappy scenario, turning Ukraine into a “European Syria” with constant fighting. [00:11:19]
Military Dynamics
- Russian Forces: Beyond official forces, Russia would deploy proxy forces like Chechen troops and private military corporations such as the Wagner Group, which has a track record in Syria, Libya, and Sudan. [00:11:31] Russia has a small but highly competent and trained military force, having fought wars for the last 10 years, and opened the invasion with lower-quality troops. [00:12:45]
- Ukrainian Forces: The Ukrainian state is fundamentally weak, and its forces might start to fragment. [00:14:01] Nationalist extremism, including groups like the Azov brigades, could rise on the Ukrainian side. [00:14:06] Massive amounts of weapons would continue to flow into the country from Western countries. [00:14:34]
- External Involvement: Turkey, already providing drones to Ukrainian forces, could become indirectly involved or even send forces with their own agenda, similar to their actions in Iraq and Syria. [00:14:41] Foreign fighters could make a massive difference for both sides. [00:16:14]
Political and Social Consequences
- Sanctions: Sanctions would persist, damaging Russia economically but not enough to force a pullout, as Putin’s political position is tied to not losing the war. [00:13:01]
- Insurgency Potential: While Ukraine has shown patriotism, its demographics, with many young people having left for work abroad, make a prolonged grassroots insurgency difficult compared to younger, more tribal societies like Iraq, Vietnam, or Afghanistan. [00:16:32] Modern countries, being “too soft” and atomized, may not sustain the ugliness of a hot insurgency. [00:17:56]
- Humanitarian Crisis: Ukrainian cities would be heavily bombed, leading to millions of refugees and potential ethnic cleansing, reminiscent of the Yugoslav War but with a larger population and more destructive weaponry. [00:15:32]
Observed Restraint (Early Stage)
In the initial days, casualties appeared modest, with no mass artillery use and limited air power. [00:21:20] Hospitals and power plants were not targeted, unlike during the 2003 Iraq invasion or the Kosovo campaign. [00:21:47] This restraint suggests Russia’s rational objective of not destroying infrastructure it intends to use, and a belief among some Russians that they are “liberators” reunifying lost lands. [00:22:50] However, there were no signs of Russians being greeted as liberators anywhere. [00:24:02]
3. Russian Defeat
This scenario is less likely given Russia’s military strength but could involve an internal collapse. [00:27:30]
Causes of Defeat
Western analysts suggest that crippling sanctions could lead to an economic freefall, creating demand for new leadership and causing Putin’s government to fall. [00:27:55]
Consequences
If Putin’s government falls, generals might retreat, leading to a power struggle, potentially a military council or even a civil war in a nuclear-armed country. [00:28:15] This outcome would be as grave as, if not greater than, a Russian victory. [00:28:41] It could see Crimea return to Ukraine and Ukraine resuming its pre-2014 borders, though at the cost of bordering a highly unstable region. [00:28:51]
Broader Geopolitical Implications
Potential for Nuclear Escalation
The risk of nuclear escalation always looms in the background, with the potential for hundreds of millions of deaths. [00:34:28] While there is no obvious “ladder” for Putin to use tactical nukes against Ukrainians, as he can achieve his military objectives with conventional artillery, intervention by NATO members like Poland could change this. [00:35:05] Russian military exercises, such as “Zapad” in 2008, have simulated using tactical nuclear warheads near Warsaw to overrun Poland. [00:35:34]
Impact on NATO and European Security
A strong Russian victory would likely revive NATO, reversing the “Trumpian debacle,” though Turkey might continue its dual-sided approach with Russia. [00:40:50] Finland and Sweden might consider joining NATO. [00:41:19] Germany might sluggishly rearm, but this could lead to political struggle between France and Germany for supremacy within the EU, potentially causing some countries to rely solely on NATO for security rather than the EU. [00:39:40]
China’s Role and Taiwan
In the event of a decisive Russian victory, China would likely provide financial and political support to Russia. [00:37:29] Putin’s popularity within Russia could soar, allowing him to claim “undone geopolitical injustice” and restore a “Soviet Union light” without communism. [00:37:50] This could lead to Ukraine and Belarus being further subordinated to Russia. [00:38:53]
A successful Russian invasion could embolden China to invade Taiwan within three years. [00:43:22] While a Taiwan invasion is technically difficult, political incentives within China, especially amid sluggish economic growth, point towards excessive nationalism. [00:43:50] China waited for the end of the Olympic games before Russia’s invasion, suggesting prior assurances of financial and political backing. [00:44:11] China has not endorsed Russia but has not criticized it either, abstaining from the UN Security Council vote. [00:44:42]
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “now or never” moment due to Russia’s aging population and Ukraine’s military build-up. [00:45:00] In contrast, time is on China’s side regarding Taiwan, as its military strength is rapidly increasing. [00:45:19] Chinese culture values the general who waits for the fruits to fall into his hands, making a rushed invasion unlikely or unnecessary, as Taiwan might eventually be demoralized into political and social integration. [00:45:27] The current political climate within the Chinese Communist Party, however, may favor jingoism over a measured approach. [00:46:48]