From: jimruttshow8596
Western sanctions against Russia in response to the conflict in Ukraine represent a new and intensified form of soft power, leveraging network effects to achieve rapid and widespread economic action [00:13:53].
Nature of the Western Response
The West’s reaction to the conflict involved both governmental sanctions and a significant number of private companies voluntarily withdrawing from Russia [00:13:17]. This phenomenon has been described as a “new expression of soft power,” which is now better understood as network power [00:13:53]. The intermediation of communication, particularly through social media platforms like Twitter, intensely sped up the process, leading to a much sharper and faster Western response than might have otherwise occurred [00:14:18][00:16:04].
This rapid consensus was partly driven by a “vastly more unified media space” among the white-collar, educated class across Western nations (e.g., France, Germany, Britain, United States) who actively participate on shared platforms like Twitter [00:16:48][00:17:09]. This acceleration meant that measures like kicking Russian banks out of SWIFT, initially expected to take weeks of negotiation, happened in just two days [00:17:47].
Dual Purpose of Sanctions
While the nominal purpose of these sanctions is to compel Russia and President Putin to desist from the military operation [00:18:36], an underlying objective may be to weaken Russia as a future threat [00:18:51].
Economic Harm to Russia
“Serious harm to the Russian economy has already happened” [00:18:24]. It is expected that there will be an economic cost to Russia that means it will be a weaker power in 2030 than it would have been without these sanctions [00:19:19].
However, not all sanctions are equally impactful:
- Approximately half of the sanctions imposed have “teeth,” meaning they come at significant economic costs not only to Russia but also to the companies imposing them [00:20:16][00:20:26]. Examples include Boeing and Airbus cutting off parts and maintenance for jet engines, which is a substantial economic measure [00:20:40][00:20:54].
- The other half are largely symbolic, with companies making statements about not taking new clients from Russia but continuing to service existing ones, which account for most of their revenue [00:19:46][00:20:03].
Limitations and Future Implications
Despite the severity, sanctions are unlikely to immediately halt the war [00:13:30][00:19:33], as Putin is seen as overcommitted to the conflict for domestic political reasons [00:19:36].
This new form of collective deterrence, if sufficiently strong, might act as an effective deterrent against aggressive warfare in the future [00:51:10][00:51:56]. However, it’s also possible that if Russia makes territorial gains, other countries might see this as a challenge to learn how to fight these wars better, minimizing costs and designing their economies to be more robust against such economic network attacks [00:52:12][00:52:28].
China, in particular, may perceive a strong benefit in disentangling from Western economies to gain “political freedom of action” in addressing issues like the Taiwan question [00:52:45][00:53:00]. This could lead to a multi-decade policy of building new partnerships directly with African and Asian countries, as well as Russia, to secure resources and markets independent of Western global institutions [00:53:15][00:53:27]. This strategic shift could allow China the political ability to pursue its goals, even if it seems paradoxical to build a vast global network for a comparatively small objective like Taiwan [00:53:36][00:54:08].