Lessons from the RussoUkrainian War

From: jimruttshow8596

The Ukraine Russia War, spanning over two years, has provided significant lessons for military strategists and observers, challenging long-held assumptions about modern warfare [01:29:00]. Sam Boria, founder of Bismar Analysis and a research fellow, discussed these insights with Jim Rut on the Jim Rut Show [00:32:45].

Obsolete Military Stockpiles and Rapid Technological Evolution

One of the primary lessons is that military stockpiles, especially of traditional equipment, are far less useful than previously assumed [02:35:09]. This is due to two main factors:

• High Attrition Rate: Warfare intensified by drones results in a very high attrition rate for equipment like tanks, trucks, and artillery shells [02:51:00].
• Technological Transformation: The rapid evolution of military technology means that stockpiling for the next war is difficult, as the tools of future conflicts are constantly changing [03:17:00]. For example, Ukraine is now producing 80,000 suicide drones per month, a scale of production previously unthinkable [03:42:00]. This transformation is often downplayed by decision-makers due to entrenched interests with traditional military contractors [03:57:00].

Return to Peer-to-Peer Warfare

The Ukraine Russia War marks the first major near-peer level war since World War II [05:13:00]. Unlike post-WWII conflicts where one side was significantly more sophisticated, this war has exposed weaknesses in assumptions made by stronger powers [05:03:00]. For instance, Russia quickly figured out how to jam GPS, rendering many GPS-guided munitions, like HIMARS rockets, almost useless unless used in specific conditions [06:03:00].

Russian Miscalculations

The Russian side made several critical miscalculations at the war’s outset:

1. Ukrainian Leadership Would Flee: Russia gambled that Ukraine’s president and leadership would abandon the country under serious threat, similar to the collapse of the Afghanistan government [07:44:00]. This proved incorrect, as Ukraine engaged in a total war of mobilization [07:53:00].
2. Overestimation of Mobile Warfare: Russia greatly overestimated the effectiveness of mobile warfare with tanks on the plains of Ukraine, a terrain historically favorable to tank battles [09:16:00]. However, modern anti-tank weapons and drones have made tanks increasingly obsolete [09:44:00].
3. Ukrainian Preparedness and Sentiment: Russia misjudged Ukraine’s preparation since 2014, including military training, acquisition of modern equipment, and purges of Russian sympathizers from government [17:11:00]. Reports from areas like Donbas, which suffered under Russian-backed regimes, fostered strong anti-Russian sentiment, even among ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in cities like Kharkiv [17:45:00].
4. Russian Military Corruption: Western analysts and Russians alike underestimated the pervasive corruption within the Russian military [19:00:00]. Reforms initiated in the early 2000s to modernize and streamline the military failed to eliminate deep-seated rot [19:17:00]. This led to severe supply shortages, such as cheap, easily punctured tires on military vehicles, hindering their advance [20:42:00].

Shift from Offensive to Defensive Dominance

The war has demonstrated a historical switch back to defensive dominance, driven by technology [11:19:00]. Inexpensive anti-tank weapons and drones have made offensive maneuvers exceedingly difficult [15:26:00]. This mirrors historical shifts, such as the impact of the Minié ball in the US Civil War or machine guns in World War I, where defensive positions gained a significant advantage [12:30:00].

Importance of Reserves and Conscription

Ukraine’s ability to rapidly increase its fighting force from 200,000 to 700,000 by July 2022, primarily through its massive reserve force, highlights the critical importance of ready reserves in peer-to-peer warfare [21:40:00]. The US, with its relatively small active reserve forces compared to its population, may be “well under reserved” for a prolonged, multi-year conflict [22:29:00]. The war also challenges the post-Cold War notion that professionalized militaries made conscription obsolete [25:27:00]. Many countries that abolished mandatory military service in the 1990s and 2000s might bring it back [25:52:00].

Changing Demographics of War

Both Ukraine and Russia face significant demographic challenges, with average ages of 40.5 and 40.7 years respectively [28:48:00]. This is likely the first war where more 40-year-olds are dying than 18-year-olds, with 50-year-olds also serving on the front lines [29:12:00]. This trend is not unique to these countries and has implications for future military manpower [29:45:00].

The Rise of Drones

The war has showcased an incredibly rapid evolution in drone warfare [35:02:00].

• Accessibility and Production: Militarily useful drones can be built from off-the-shelf electronic components [35:13:00]. Ukraine’s goal of producing 80,000 suicide drones a month demonstrates a massive scaling of production [39:37:00].
• Pilot Skill and Experience: Drone pilots gain thousands of hours of combat flight experience with minimal risk of death, leading to highly skilled operators [36:14:00]. This may lead to a dynamic similar to snipers, with astonishing kill ratios [36:44:00]. Younger individuals with faster response times and higher neuroplasticity might be ideal for these roles [37:15:00].
• Industrial Transformation: The need for rapid adaptation means countries must build their own drones, leading to the creation of numerous drone factories and rapid prototyping [40:20:00]. An independent Ukraine could become a top global drone producer [41:11:00].
• Obsolescence of Manned Air Forces: The muted role of traditional manned air forces (Ukrainian and Russian) is a significant observation [42:08:00]. Drones, with their reconnaissance and munition delivery capabilities, essentially act as the new air force, potentially rendering expensive manned jet fighters and aircraft carriers obsolete for peer-level combat [42:18:00].
• Cost Ratios: The asymmetric exchange ratios between inexpensive drones (e.g., $1,000)andmulti-milliondollartraditionalmilitaryhardware(e.g.,$2 million tanks, $25 billion aircraft carriers) can be decisive in a long war [46:01:00].

“A $300 million fighter plane may just be an absurd thing in the next turn of the screw.” [43:40:00]

Autonomous Drones

While full autonomy in drones may be incremental due to the “long tail of problems” and limited training data for complex battlefield scenarios, partial automation is advancing [50:11:00]. The increasing sophistication of electronic countermeasures (ECM) that disrupt communication links could accelerate the development of truly autonomous drones [53:51:00].

“For killing civilians, you know, 99.9 isn’t good enough right you need like 99.999… Warfare maybe don’t need anywhere near that good.” [55:03:00]

Ground autonomous vehicles, such as for logistics and supply delivery, are also likely to become more common, as they eliminate human risk in low-survivability roles [01:00:00].

Artillery’s Continued Relevance

Despite technological advancements, artillery has proven to be the “queen of battle” [01:04:47].

• Mass and Immunity: Artillery can deliver a massive amount of fire and is largely immune to electronic countermeasures [01:05:07]. Tens of thousands, even millions, of artillery shells have been expended [01:05:07].
• Positional Warfare: The return to positional warfare, due to the difficulty of maneuver in the face of drones, increases artillery’s effectiveness [01:06:54]. When troops are pinned down, artillery becomes a decisive tool [01:07:26].
• Synergy with Drones: Surveillance drones provide live targeting updates for artillery pieces, creating a powerful combination [01:07:33].
• Logistical Challenges: The high rate of consumption of artillery shells has drained stockpiles, highlighting the need for increased domestic production [01:08:42]. The US, for instance, has not appointed a “George Marshall” figure to accelerate war readiness and logistics [01:09:50].

Implications for Future Conflicts: The Straits of Taiwan

The lessons from Ukraine carry significant implications for a potential conflict in the Straits of Taiwan [01:12:50].

• Sanctions’ Limited Effect: The war has shown that sanctions are only fully effective if applied by both the US and China [01:13:11]. Countries only sanctioned by the US can still survive economically if they maintain trade with China [01:13:21].
• Untested Militaries: China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has not been tested in large-scale conflict since the Korean War [01:14:57]. Despite good hardware, its bureaucratic and logistical systems are likely inefficient and riddled with corruption, similar to Russia’s [01:15:02].
• Autocratic Regimes and Public Opinion: Autocratic regimes, like China’s, have proven capable of rallying public support for aggressive wars, as seen in Russia [01:16:35]. Theories that internal protests would overthrow the government in such scenarios have not materialized [01:17:11].
• Drone Invasion Scenarios: The short distance across the Taiwan Strait makes a massive drone invasion plausible [01:17:41]. Hundreds of thousands of drones could potentially overwhelm Taiwanese defenses, enforce curfews, and disrupt society [01:17:51].
• Amphibious Assault Difficulties: The defensive advantage observed in Ukraine makes a traditional amphibious invasion of Taiwan extremely difficult [01:22:12].
• Naval Warfare Transformation: Ukraine’s success in driving the Russian Navy out of the eastern Black Sea using inexpensive anti-ship missiles demonstrates the vulnerability of large surface fleets [01:22:57]. This suggests that China’s navy, including its aircraft carriers, could be vulnerable to asymmetric attacks [01:25:02]. Autonomous submersible vehicles (self-deploying mines) could also pose a significant threat to naval interdiction and blockades [01:25:40].

In summary, the Russo-Ukrainian War has highlighted the obsolescence of traditional military thinking, the profound impact of drones and asymmetric warfare, the importance of domestic industrial production, and the enduring challenges of logistics and human factors in modern conflict. These lessons will likely reshape military strategies and procurement decisions globally [01:26:22].