From: jimruttshow8596
Journalist Jim Rut hosts Neil Howe, managing director of demography for Hedgeye, an investment advisory firm, and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Global Aging Institute [01:00:23]. Howe discusses his latest book, The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End, and the cyclical nature of historical and societal change [01:48:51].
Understanding Time and History
Humans have historically understood time in three ways:
- Chaotic As a “whirligig succession of events meaning nothing” [03:08:08], common in Aboriginal views or a child’s intuition [02:59:40]. Few societies embrace this due to the uncertainty it brings [03:37:37].
- Cyclical Adopted by most societies since recorded history [04:04:47], this view is based on observing repeating events like birth and death, or seasonal cycles [04:14:17]. Pre-modern societies often sought to emulate past deeds [04:40:47].
- Linear This concept emerged with civilizations like ancient Rome, which had long-term aspirations for a collective future [06:09:00]. The definitive break from cyclical time was the birth of monotheistic religions (Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, Islam), which saw time as a linear progression from creation to an end [06:56:06]. By the 18th century, this was secularized into the idea of progress, where things would continuously get better [08:08:14].
Paradoxically, a society with a strong belief in linear progress can give rise to social cycles because different generations with varying viewpoints push society in different directions, creating a “standing wave” on top of linear time [10:25:01].
The Generational Mechanism
The concept of generations is key to understanding historical cycles [11:48:07]. A generation is a group born over roughly one “phase of life” and is defined by three things:
- Age Location in History Different age groups experience the same historical event differently, shaping their views [11:03:00]. For example, a war affects children (expected to stay out of danger) differently from young adults (expected to rise up and fight) [15:32:00].
- Values, Beliefs, and Behaviors These differ significantly by generation [19:11:00]. For instance, in the late 1960s, Boomer college freshmen prioritized a meaningful philosophy of life over financial well-being by three to one, whereas Generation X ten years later reversed that ratio two to one [19:22:00]. This directly relates to the impact_of_generational_beliefs_on_society.
- Self-identification What generation do individuals identify with [19:57:00].
Certain kinds of generations consistently follow others, leading to predictable cycles [22:30:00]. This cyclical pattern is underpinned by the length of a human life, or saeculum (80-90 years), which consists of four phases of life [25:51:00].
The Four Turnings: Seasons of History
A saeculum is divided into four “seasons” or turnings, each lasting approximately 20-25 years [29:07:00].
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First Turning: The High (Spring) [29:33:00]
- Characteristics: Follows a crisis, characterized by strong community focus, institution-building, infrastructure development, and conformity [32:10:00]. Society has a high supply and demand for order [32:27:00].
- Historical Example: Post-World War II American High (1946-1964) [40:51:00]. This era saw increased equality of income and wealth, and strong unions [33:26:00].
- Generational Archetype: Hero generation (e.g., GI Generation, Millennials) [42:57:00].
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Second Turning: The Awakening (Summer) [29:13:00]
- Characteristics: A period of cultural and religious reconstruction [27:43:00], where existing societal order is questioned and individualism rises [33:02:00]. Society supplies order, but demand for it decreases [38:46:00].
- Historical Example: The 1960s and 1970s (1964-1984), characterized by celebrated social and cultural change, and the “Consciousness Revolution” [41:03:00].
- Generational Archetype: Prophet generation (e.g., Boomers) [42:49:00].
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Third Turning: The Unraveling (Autumn) [35:41:00]
- Characteristics: Individualism triumphs, institutions are discredited and weakened [36:10:00]. The supply of order is low, and demand for order is also low [39:16:00]. Characterized by cynicism and weak civic authority [37:55:00].
- Historical Example: 1984 to 2008 [41:28:00].
- Generational Archetype: Nomad generation (e.g., Generation X) [42:52:00].
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Fourth Turning: The Crisis (Winter) [29:15:00]
- Characteristics: A period of civic upheaval and reconstruction of the “outer world” – economics, politics, community, and infrastructure [27:26:00]. Society continues to deliver little order, but demand for order rises, often leading to a call for strong leadership [39:40:00]. This is when total wars typically occur [01:08:53].
- Historical Examples: Glorious Revolution/Bacon’s Rebellion (late 17th century), American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression/World War II [26:27:00].
- Current Period: The current Fourth Turning began in 2008 with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and is expected to last until the early 2030s [41:40:00].
- Generational Archetype: Hero generation (e.g., Millennials) [43:00:00].
Dynamics of the Current Fourth Turning (Crisis)
The present crisis exhibits several key dynamics:
Precursor
A precursor is a brief moment during the preceding Third Turning that foreshadows the community integration of the Fourth Turning [56:13:00]. For the current Fourth Turning, the precursor was 9/11 [56:44:00].
Catalyst
The crisis always starts with a catalyst [58:58:00]. For the current era, the catalyst was the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, mirroring the Black Thursday crash of 1929 [01:03:00]. These global financial collapses are becoming a defining theme for the start of Fourth Turnings due to increasingly integrated economies [01:10:00].
Melasky's Theory of Supply and Demand for Order
Societal order shifts throughout the turnings [39:16:00]:
- High (First Turning): High supply and high demand for order [38:25:00].
- Awakening (Second Turning): High supply, low demand for order, leading to social chaos [38:46:00].
- Unraveling (Third Turning): Low supply and low demand for order, a period of individualized satisfaction [39:16:00].
- Crisis (Fourth Turning): Low supply, but rising demand for order, leading to calls for strong leadership [39:40:00].
Current Societal Shifts (Within the Crisis)
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Families: During the Awakening, families were weak, exemplified by the divorce revolution and shrinking household sizes in the 1970s [47:08:00]. While child nurture strengthened during the Unraveling (Millennials being raised protectively) [48:00:00], families are now strengthening again in the current crisis, evidenced by the surge in multi-generational living [48:47:00]. Nearly 50% of Americans under age 30 live with family [49:10:00], driven by economic challenges for Millennials and their emotional closeness to Boomers [49:16:00]. This is part of the broader societal implications of declining fertility rates as well as economic factors.
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Gender Roles: While popular opinion suggests continued convergence, Howe predicts a widening of gender roles within the crisis [52:40:00]. This is partly driven by women’s complaints about men not being able to “get their act together” financially, and a millennial preference for efficient division of labor in community-oriented ways, even if it means somewhat separate roles [53:21:00].
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Decline in Institutional Trust: There is a pervasive sense of profound pessimism [59:47:00]. Governments and democratic organs are increasingly seen as avoiding problem-solving [01:06:08]. This rise in distrust contributes to a sense of paralysis and sclerosis [01:06:45]. Millennials, more than older generations, are less optimistic and attached to democracy, reflecting an “order-seeking” mindset [01:05:32].
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Political Polarization and Conflict: The current crisis is marked by sharply rising partisanship [01:00:39]. Political differences now outweigh income, religion, or race in causing avoidance [01:03:38]. Parents are more concerned about their children marrying someone from an opposing political party than a different religion or race [01:03:59]. The share of Americans who believe violent action against the government is never justified has fallen from 90% to 62% since the 1990s [01:04:22], indicating growing radicalization.
Resolution of the Crisis (Epyrosis)
The climax (or epyrosis) of a Fourth Turning involves organized conflict [01:08:40]. This could manifest as:
- Internal Conflict: A “Civil War scenario” [01:18:53]. Historical parallels, like the American Civil War, involved deep internal divisions where factions saw each other as “mutually exclusive” [01:01:03]. Public surveys increasingly show that about half of Americans believe civil war is imminent [01:17:16].
- External Conflict: A major international conflict [01:19:07]. The historical pattern suggests that societies often gravitate toward external conflict to resolve internal divisions [01:21:07]. This aligns with observations about the role of external threats in unifying populations.
- Combined Conflict: A scenario where internal conflict invites foreign intervention [01:26:03]. Historically, the weaker side in a civil conflict often seeks foreign allies [01:29:07]. A dire civil conflict in the U.S. could lead to a World War where the U.S. is not a major participant, potentially even resulting in parts of the U.S. being occupied by foreign powers [01:31:37].
Howe estimates the chance of an endogenous, political cataclysm killing 0.1% of the U.S. population (330,000 people) in the next 20 years to be significant, though below 50% [01:20:17].
The Coming “New Spring” (Golden Age)
Despite the grim outlook of a Fourth Turning, Howe emphasizes that these periods are not “horrible accidents” but a natural pattern that rejuvenates public institutions and civic life [01:24:05]. Analogous to “forests need fires, rivers need floods,” these crises reform communities [01:27:00].
The resolution of a Fourth Turning leads to a “Golden Age” (the next First Turning) characterized by a shift from individualism to community [01:32:40], similar to the post-World War II era (1950s) [01:33:11]. Key societal changes expected in the new spring include:
- From Privilege to Equality: Periods of huge increases in equal income and wealth [01:33:43]. Millennials, unlike Boomers, would welcome greater equality [01:34:13].
- From Defiance to Authority: Social authority becomes much more important, with people giving and following orders [01:34:15]. This includes increased public trust in government and institutions [01:35:24]. This is relevant to how technology might facilitate or hinder authority.
- From Deferral to Permanence: Instead of deferring problems, society invests in long-term, durable reforms for future generations [01:36:08]. These “huge durable reforms” in government structure are enacted during times of immense crisis, not peace and prosperity [01:36:35]. This connects to future societal strategies.
- From Irony to Convention: A return to cultural convention [01:38:17].
This rejuvenation cycle underscores that while the current crisis is a period of great difficulty, it is a necessary part of societal evolution, ultimately leading to a renewed period of order, trust, and community [01:24:05]. This perspective offers a contrast to debates on ethics in societal evolution that focus solely on technological rather than cyclical drivers.