From: jimruttshow8596
The concept of generational change offers a unique lens through which to understand societal dynamics and historical patterns [12:19:00]. This framework suggests that the distinct experiences and perspectives of different age cohorts shape social mood, values, and institutional structures over time, leading to predictable cycles in history [11:03:00].
Understanding Time and Generational Cycles
Humans have historically understood time through various metaphors: chaotic, cyclical, and linear [02:16:18]. While chaotic time (perceived as random events) has rarely been embraced by societies, cyclical time (based on repeating natural and human events) was dominant in the pre-modern world [03:34:00]. The definitive shift occurred with the rise of monotheisms in the West, introducing the idea of linear progress, with a beginning and an end to time [06:56:00]. This linear view was later secularized, especially by the 18th century philosophers and the Industrial Revolution, leading to a prevalent belief in continuous progress [08:06:00].
Paradoxically, a society that strongly believes in linear progress can give rise to social cycles [10:25:00]. This happens because different generations, all believing in progress but holding different viewpoints on its nature, can push society in varying directions [10:11:00].
The “Diagonal” and Generational Shaping
The key to understanding generational cycles lies in the concept of the “diagonal” [14:45:00]. If age is on the y-axis and time on the x-axis, individuals live a diagonal line, getting older each year [14:45:00]. A generation is a bundle of these diagonal lines [14:55:00].
A single event, represented as a vertical line through these diagonals, is experienced and its lessons absorbed very differently depending on a cohort’s “diagonal” or life phase [15:00:00]. For example, a major war would affect a child (social obligation: keep out of danger) [15:32:00] differently than a young adult (social obligation: rise up, meet the enemy) [15:53:00]. This differential shaping is fundamental to generational definition [16:06:00].
A generation is defined by three factors:
- Age location: Whether they occupied the same period of history as childhood and came into adulthood in a subsequent phase [16:23:00].
- Values and beliefs: Different generations exhibit distinct values, beliefs, and behaviors [19:11:00]. For instance, late 1960s college freshmen overwhelmingly prioritized developing a meaningful philosophy of life, while 10 years later, Generation X prioritized being financially well off [19:20:00].
- Self-identification: The generation a person identifies with [19:57:00].
The Seculum and Four Turnings
The concept of the seculum, an ancient Roman term meaning a “long human life” or the period from a major event until everyone who witnessed it has died, gives periodicity to these long cycles [24:45:00]. This period, roughly 80 to 90 years, is divided into four “turnings” or “seasons” of history [25:51:00]:
- First Turning (High / Spring): Occurs after a crisis. Characterized by strong community focus, institution-building, and conformity [31:46:00]. (e.g., Post-WWII American High, 1946-1964 [40:51:00]).
- Second Turning (Awakening / Summer): A period of social and cultural change, often marked by a detestation of conformity and a rise in individualism [33:00:00]. (e.g., The Consciousness Revolution, 1964-1984 [41:03:00]).
- Third Turning (Unraveling / Autumn): Individualism triumphs, institutions are discredited and weakened, and there’s less concern for community or centralized authority [36:10:00]. (e.g., 1984-2008 [41:31:00]).
- Fourth Turning (Crisis / Winter): A period of profound danger, risk, and uncertainty, often accompanied by a sense of deep pessimism [59:40:00]. (e.g., 2008-early 2030s [41:37:00]).
These turnings alternate between periods of “civic cataclysms” (reconstruction of the outer world: economics, politics) and “Awakenings” (reconstruction of the inner world: culture, religion, values) [27:26:00].
Generational Archetypes
Four archetypes of generations consistently appear across these cycles, playing similar roles throughout history due to their similar shaping [39:39:39]:
- Heroes (GI Generation, Millennials): Often born after a crisis, raised in an era of protection, and typically come of age during the next crisis [23:30:00]. They are community-oriented and order-seeking [40:04:00]. Known for their civic contributions and ensuring societal survival in times of chaos [46:03:03].
- Artists (Silent Generation): Children of crisis, tend to be oversocialized and deferential as young adults [44:57:00]. Known for their contributions to the arts and ornamentation of society [45:51:00].
- Prophets (Boomers): Born after a crisis, they grew up in an era of peace and prosperity, leading them to be individualists and often defiant of the established system [32:58:00]. They lead the “Awakenings” [33:09:00].
- Nomads (Generation X): Children of an Awakening, they tend to be cynical, pragmatic survivors and individualists [22:42:00]. They experience the combat of the precursor event and later the main crisis [57:12:00].
Impact on Societal Structures During a Crisis (Fourth Turning)
The current period, from 2008 to the early 2030s, is identified as a Fourth Turning [41:44:00]. Such periods are defined by specific shifts in societal structures:
Supply and Demand for Order
The dynamic of “supply and demand for order” shifts throughout the turnings [39:39:39]:
- High (First Turning): High supply of order, high demand for order. People are generally happy with structure and conformity [38:34:00].
- Awakening (Second Turning): Continued supply of order, but demand plummets, leading to social chaos and personal argumentation as individualism rises [38:46:00].
- Unraveling (Third Turning): Low supply of order, low demand for order. Society is highly individualized [39:16:16].
- Crisis (Fourth Turning): Low supply of order, but demand for order sharply rises, leading to a call for strong leadership and increased security [39:40:00].
Families
- Unraveling: Families were weak, with declining household size and a “divorce revolution” [47:10:00]. However, child nurture strengthened, with parents becoming much more protective of Millennials [48:10:00].
- Crisis: Families begin to strengthen, evidenced by a huge growth in multi-generational living [48:40:00]. Nearly 50% of Americans under age 30 live in multi-generational homes [49:10:00]. This stems from Millennials’ difficulty starting careers and their strong emotional closeness with Boomer parents [49:29:00].
Gender Roles
While the popular press might suggest continued contraction of gender roles, the generational model predicts a widening of roles during the crisis [52:40:00]. This is partly driven by women’s desire for “effective” men and a growing appreciation for an efficient division of labor among Millennials [53:21:00]. This does not imply a return to traditional roles that lack civic equality, but rather a preference for roles that ensure jobs get done, even if they are distinct [54:33:00].
Institutions and Conflict
A Fourth Turning often starts with a “catalyst,” such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (paralleling Black Thursday in 1929) [59:58:00]. These periods are characterized by:
- Rising partisanship and tribalism: People re-identify with certain communities, leading to sharp political polarization [01:00:28]. Political differences now outrank income, religion, or race as sources of division [01:03:38].
- Distrust in institutions: People lose faith in the middle ground and deliberative bodies like Congress to solve problems, leading to a sense of paralysis and sclerosis [01:06:06].
- Increased acceptance of violent action: The share of Americans who say violent action against the government is never justified has fallen from 90% to 62% since the 1990s [01:04:22].
- Rise of populism and authoritarianism: This trend has significantly increased globally since 2008, mirroring the 1930s [01:04:52].
- Declining optimism in democracy: Millennials, being an “order-seeking generation,” are less optimistic about democracy’s efficacy compared to previous generations at the same age [01:05:32].
Fourth Turnings feature organized conflict, and historically, all “total wars” in Anglo-American history have occurred during these periods [01:08:40]. The resolution of this crisis can be internal (like a Civil War) or external (like World War II) [01:12:32]. The losing side in internal conflicts often seeks foreign allies, complicating the conflict [01:29:04].
Predictions for the Next Era
Despite the current dangers, Fourth Turnings are not merely destructive [01:24:05]. They serve as a crucible that rejuvenates public institutions and civic life [01:25:17]. The end of a crisis leads to a “golden age” (First Turning), marked by:
- Shift from individualism to community: New generations are socialized to prioritize sacrifice for the community [01:32:50].
- Increased equality: Periods of huge increases in equal income and wealth [01:33:37].
- Return to authority: Social authority becomes more important, with people giving and following orders more readily [01:34:15].
- From deferral to permanence: Durable, foundational reforms in government structure are enacted, often during times of intense crisis when society’s “backs are against the wall” [01:36:31].
- Shift from irony to convention in culture: Society moves back towards more conventional cultural norms, setting the stage for future generations to rebel against [01:38:17].
This article draws on insights from the book *The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End* by Neil Howe [01:48:48].