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Generational cycles and archetypes

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From: jimruttshow8596

Neil Howe, managing director of demography for Hedgeye and an investment advisory firm, and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Global Aging Institute, is known for his work on generational theory [01:00:00]. His theories, co-authored with William Strauss, delve into historical seasons and their impact on society [01:48:00].

Understanding Time and History

Historically, humans have understood time in three primary ways:

  • Chaotic: A “whirligig succession of events meaning nothing” [03:06:00]. This view, similar to a child’s intuition or a Buddhist master’s transcendence of disorder, is rarely embraced by societies due to inherent uncertainty [03:03:00][03:37:00].
  • Cyclical: The most ancient and widely adopted view, based on repeating events in life such as birth, death, eating, harvesting, and astral cycles [04:08:00][04:14:00][05:31:00]. In premodern schemas, the ideal was to repeat great deeds of the past, like a Greek hero emulating Hector or Achilles [04:40:00][04:46:00].
  • Linear: The idea of time as progress, which gained prominence with ancient empires like Rome and Athens, and definitively broke with cyclical time through the birth of monotheisms (Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, Islam) [06:04:00][06:09:00][06:56:00]. This perspective views the world as having a definite beginning and end, with humanity progressing through trials and tribulations [07:15:00][07:26:00]. By the 18th century, this became secularized, influencing thinkers like Condorcet and leading to the Victorian era’s belief in secular progress [08:06:00][08:41:00][08:49:00].

Paradoxically, a society that strongly believes in linear progress can give rise to social cycles [10:25:00][10:29:00]. This happens because different age groups and cohorts experience the same events differently, leading to a “standing wave” built on top of linear time [11:03:00][11:10:00][11:37:00].

The Diagonal of Life and Generational Definition

The concept of a “diagonal” in history illustrates how different generations are shaped [14:45:00]. If age is on the y-axis and time on the x-axis, everyone lives a diagonal line, getting older each year [14:47:00][14:50:00]. A generation is a bundle of these diagonal lines [14:55:00]. A single event (a vertical line) intersects these diagonals, meaning different generations react to and absorb its lessons very differently based on their life stage and prior experiences [15:00:00][15:09:00].

A generation is defined by three factors [16:23:00]:

  1. Age: Generally, a group born over a period of roughly a phase of life (e.g., 20 years) [16:17:00].
  2. Location in history: Do they generally feel they occupied the same period of history as childhood and came into adulthood in a subsequent phase [16:24:00][16:32:00]? For example, the GI Generation (Greatest Generation) experienced the Great Depression and WWII as young adults [16:40:00][16:53:00]. The Silent Generation experienced the crisis as children [16:57:00]. Boomers were raised during the “American High” and came of age during a period of social and cultural change [17:37:00][17:42:00]. Gen X were children during this social change and came of age after it [18:22:02].
  3. Shared experiences: This leads to shared values, beliefs, and behaviors [19:11:00][19:51:00]. For example, Boomers as freshmen overwhelmingly prioritized “developing a meaningful philosophy of life” over financial well-being, a sentiment that reversed for Gen X [19:20:00][19:48:00].

The Saeculum and Four Turnings

The saeculum is an 80-to-90-year period, roughly the length of a long human life, divided into four phases [25:56:00][26:01:00][29:04:00]. Historically, Anglo-American history has experienced civic cataclysms about every 80-90 years [26:06:00][26:18:00]. Roughly halfway between these civic reconstructions, there are “Great Awakenings” that reconstruct the inner world (culture, religion, morals, values) [27:38:00][27:54:00].

The four turnings, or seasons of history, are [29:07:00][30:30:00]:

  1. First Turning (High / Spring):

    • Description: Characterized by strong community focus, institution building, and conformity, often a reaction to the vulnerability felt during a previous crisis [31:10:00][32:17:00][32:21:00]. There is a high supply and high demand for order [38:25:00].
    • Recent Example: The post-World War II era (1946-1964) [40:51:00][40:55:00]. This period saw increased equality of income and wealth, strong unions, and growing middle-class wages [33:26:00][33:33:00].

  2. Second Turning (Awakening / Summer):

    • Description: Involves a “reconstruction of our inner world” – culture, religion, manners, morals, and values [27:45:00][27:50:00]. Society continues to supply order, but demand for it wanes, leading to personal argumentation and social chaos [38:46:00][39:06:00]. Individualism triumphs, and institutions are discredited [36:10:00][36:15:00].
    • Recent Example: 1964-1984, marked by the “Consciousness Revolution” and the “generation gap” [41:03:00][13:13:00]. This period saw a “divorce revolution” and the largest, fastest decline in average household size in American history [47:10:00][47:18:00].

  3. Third Turning (Unraveling / Autumn):

    • Description: Follows the Awakening, with individualism still triumphant and institutions weakened [36:10:00][36:15:00]. The supply and demand for order are both low, leading to a period of satisfaction with individualized society [39:16:16][39:30:00]. It’s an era of “weak civic authority” where people feel “radicalized emancipated, individualized” [37:35:00][37:40:00]. Historically, these periods of cynicism and “bad manners” always lead to a crisis [37:57:00][38:12:00].
    • Recent Example: 1984-2008 [41:28:00]. Families were weak in overall authority, but child nurture strengthened with increased parental protection for Millennials [48:05:00][48:15:00].

  4. Fourth Turning (Crisis / Winter):

    • Description: Society delivers little order, but the demand for order rises, often leading to a “call for the man on horseback” [39:40:00][39:46:00]. This era is characterized by profound pessimism, rising partisanship, and huge collective conflicts that often involve total war [40:20:00][59:47:00][01:00:37:00][01:08:40:00].
    • Recent Example: 2008-early 2030s [41:33:00][41:44:00]. The precursor to the current Fourth Turning was 9/11, a brief moment of community integration [56:18:00][56:31:00]. The Catalyst for the current Fourth Turning was the 2008 Global Financial Crash (GFC), mirroring the 1929 Black Thursday that began the Great Depression [41:51:00][41:56:00].

Characteristics of the Current Crisis (Fourth Turning)

  • Family Strengthening: Multi-generational living has seen huge growth, with nearly 50% of Americans under age 30 living with parents, stemming from economic challenges and strong emotional closeness between Millennials and Boomers [48:47:00][49:10:00][49:27:00].
  • Widening Gender Roles: While society is moving towards more fluid gender roles, there’s a prediction of a widening of gender roles in the crisis, possibly driven by women seeking effective partners and a more efficient division of labor, potentially leading to a return to traditional roles if chosen [52:40:00][52:51:00][53:27:00][54:52:00][55:55:07][55:16:00].
  • Political Polarization: Surveys show political differences now outrank income, religion, or race in day-to-day encounters people wish to avoid [01:03:38:00]. Parents are more concerned about their kids marrying someone from the opposite political party than a different religion or race [01:03:59:00][01:04:05:00].
  • Acceptance of Violence: Since the 1990s, the share of Americans who say violent action against the government is never justified has fallen from 90% to 62% [01:04:22:00][01:04:28:00].
  • Rise of Populism and Authoritarianism: There’s been a huge increase in populist and authoritarian governments globally since 2008 [01:04:52:00][01:04:56:00]. Millennials are less wedded to democracy and less optimistic about its efficacy than older generations [01:05:31:00][01:05:40:00].
  • Government Paralysis: There’s a growing distrust in institutions, with the government perceived as ineffective at solving problems and instead deferring them [01:06:10:00][01:06:45:00].

Generational Archetypes

These archetypes are common collective personalities that play similar roles throughout history due to similar shaping experiences [01:17:00][01:33:00].

  • Hero: (e.g., Millennials, GI Generation) Typically born after an unraveling, raised in a protective environment, and come of age during a crisis [02:30:00][02:39:00][02:40:00][02:43:00]. They are often seen as civic-minded, team-oriented, and risk-averse [02:47:00].
  • Artist: (e.g., Silent Generation) Born during a crisis, raised to be oversocialized and differential as young adults [02:46:00][02:50:00][02:57:00]. They contribute to the realm of arts and ornamentation [02:53:00][02:56:00].
  • Prophet: (e.g., Boomers) Born after a crisis and raised during a “High” (First Turning), they come of age during an Awakening. They are idealists and iconoclasts, wanting to “pull down the system” [02:34:00][02:39:00].
  • Nomad: (e.g., Gen X, Lost Generation) Children during an Awakening, they move into young adulthood during an unraveling [02:42:00][02:46:00][02:54:00][02:57:00]. They are often cynical, pragmatic, materialistic, and known as doers, risk-takers, and survivalists, best equipped to guarantee society’s survival during chaos [02:46:00][02:48:00][02:52:00][02:59:00].

Resolution of the Crisis (Epipyrosis) and the Next Spring

The Fourth Turning (crisis) is marked by a deep sense of danger and uncertainty, often accompanied by “epipyrosis”—a fiery end and purification [01:00:40:00][01:52:53:00]. The inherent instability of a crisis means that eventually, one side will win the domestic front, or groups will band together for an external conflict [01:12:09:00][01:12:36:00].

The outcome of the Fourth Turning can manifest as:

The ultimate resolution leads to a complete redefinition of community and a new social contract [01:21:19:00][01:22:22:00].

The Coming Spring (First Turning) - The Golden Age

Following the crisis, a “Golden Age” emerges, characterized by a renewed sense of community and trust [01:24:16:00][01:24:29:00]. This period, akin to the post-WWII era (1950s), sees significant societal changes:

  • From Individualism to Community: A shift towards collective well-being [01:33:28:00].
  • From Privilege to Equality: Huge increases in equal income and wealth [01:33:37:00][01:34:02:00].
  • From Defiance to Authority: Social authority becomes much more important, with people giving and following orders more readily [01:34:15:00][01:34:25:00].
  • From Deferral to Permanence: Problems are resolved for future generations, and durable reforms are enacted during the crisis, leading to lasting structures [01:36:08:00][01:37:19:00].
  • From Irony to Convention: Culture shifts back to more conventional norms, providing “grist” for the next Awakening generation to rebel against [01:38:17:00][01:38:26:00][01:38:42:00].

This cyclical pattern, while often appearing destructive, is a natural process for societies to rejuvenate public institutions and civic life [01:25:17:00][01:25:21:00].

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