The Fourth Turning theory

From: jimruttshow8596

The Jim Rut Show features demographer Neil Howe, managing director at Hedgeye and senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Global Aging Institute [01:00:15]. Howe’s work, including “Generations” (co-authored with William Strauss) and “The Fourth Turning is Here,” explores how historical patterns and generational cycles influence societal changes [01:26:00].

Understanding Time and Cycles

Humans have historically understood time in three principal ways: chaotic, cyclical, and linear [02:16:00].

• Chaotic Time: This view, like a child’s initial perception or a Buddhist master’s transcendence, sees time as a “Whig gig succession of events meaning nothing” [03:06:00]. Few societies embrace it due to the inherent uncertainty [03:37:00].
• Cyclical Time: Adopted by most pre-modern societies, this view is based on repeating events like birth, death, harvesting, and astral cycles [04:05:00]. The ideal was to emulate past deeds, making life feel situated [04:40:40].
• Linear Time: This concept emerged with ancient civilizations like Rome and Athens, but definitively with Western monotheisms (Judaism, Christianity, Islam), which saw time as having a beginning and an end, with progress towards a final outcome [06:04:00]. By the Victorian era, this became a secular belief in continuous progress [08:49:00].

Paradoxically, a society that strongly believes in linear progress can give rise to social cycles [10:25:00]. This occurs because successive generations, each believing in progress, have different viewpoints on what that progress entails, pushing society in varying directions [10:08:00].

Generational Dynamics and the Diagonal

Neil Howe and William Strauss initially focused on generational change, noticing how different generations experience the same events uniquely [11:10:00]. The “diagonal” concept helps visualize this: age on the Y-axis and time on the X-axis [14:39:00]. Everyone lives a diagonal line, getting older each year [14:45:00]. A generation is a bundle of these diagonal lines [14:55:00]. A single event is a vertical line intersecting all diagonals [15:02:02]. Thus, reactions to an event vary greatly depending on a generation’s life phase and prior experiences [15:06:00].

A generation is defined by three factors:

1. Age: Occupying the same period of history as children.
2. Location: Coming into adulthood in a subsequent phase of history.
3. History: Shared historical experiences that shape their collective identity [16:23:00].

Howe notes that they coined the term “Millennial generation” in their book “Generations” [20:32:00].

The Saeculum: A Cycle of Four Turnings

The core concept is the “Saeculum,” a long human life cycle, roughly 80 to 90 years [24:45:00]. This periodicity is rooted in the length of human life and its four phases [25:49:00]. Anglo-American history shows recurring civic cataclysms (crises) approximately every 80-90 years, with “Great Awakenings” roughly halfway between them [26:11:00].

The Saeculum is divided into four seasons, or “Turnings”:

1. First Turning (High / Spring): A period after a crisis where society builds strong community institutions and focuses on conformity. Example: Post-World War II American High (1946-1964) [31:46:00].
2. Second Turning (Awakening / Summer): A period of cultural and spiritual upheaval where individuals challenge established order and institutions. Example: The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984) [33:57:00].
3. Third Turning (Unraveling / Autumn): Individualism triumphs, institutions are discredited, and civic authority weakens, leading to cynicism. Example: The Unraveling (1984-2008) [35:41:00].
4. Fourth Turning (Crisis / Winter): A period of profound social and political crisis, where society confronts its fundamental challenges and undergoes reconstruction. Example: The current crisis (2008-early 2030s) [41:37:00].

Supply and Demand for Order

This concept describes the shifting societal mood regarding collective order:

• High (First Turning): High supply of order, high demand for order. People are happy with structure and conformity [38:25:00].
• Awakening (Second Turning): Society still supplies order, but demand plummets, leading to social chaos and individual rebellion [38:46:00].
• Unraveling (Third Turning): Both supply and demand for order are low. This is a time of increased individualism and satisfaction with less collective oversight [39:16:00].
• Crisis (Fourth Turning): Supply of order remains low, but demand for order sharply rises, leading to calls for strong leadership and a yearning for security [39:40:00].

Generational Archetypes

Howe describes four archetypes that recur across the turnings, shaped by their experiences:

• Artist Archetype: (e.g., Silent Generation) Children of Crisis, often oversocialized and deferential as young adults [44:57:00]. Known for artistry and ornamentation [45:51:00].
• Prophet Archetype: (e.g., Boomers) Born after a crisis, grow up in a “High” period, and come of age during an Awakening. Idealists and iconoclasts who want to pull down the system [22:30:00].
• Nomad Archetype: (e.g., Gen X) Children during an Awakening, they are pragmatic, cynical, and individualistic survivors. Known for guaranteeing societal survival in chaos [46:03:00].
• Hero Archetype: (e.g., GI Generation, Millennials) Protected during childhood, they come of age during a crisis and are often civic-oriented, teaming, and community-focused [23:22:00].

The Current Fourth Turning (Crisis: 2008 - early 2030s)

The current Fourth Turning began in 2008, following the Great Recession, similar to how the last Fourth Turning began with the 1929 Black Thursday [41:51:00].

• Precursor: While not always necessary, Fourth Turnings often have a “precursor” event in the preceding Third Turning that offers a brief taste of future collective solidarity. For the current Fourth Turning, it was 9/11 [56:11:00].
• Catalyst: The event that formally initiates the crisis. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) served as this catalyst [59:58:00].
• Social Mood:
  • Families: Families, which were weak during the Unraveling, are strengthening, evidenced by the huge growth in multi-generational living [48:47:00]. Millennials, unlike Boomers, have an “incredible emotional closeness” with their parents [49:29:00].
  • Gender Roles: While currently appearing to contract, Howe predicts a widening of gender roles, driven by women seeking effective partners and a more “efficient and useful division of labor” [52:51:00].
  • Partisanship and Tribalism: Political differences now outweigh other demographic differences [01:03:38]. There’s a notable increase in the percentage of Americans who believe violent action against the government is sometimes justified (from 10% to 38%) [01:04:22].
  • Distrust in Institutions: Millennials, unlike older generations, are less wedded to democracy and more pessimistic about its efficacy [01:05:31]. Government is increasingly seen as ineffective and paralyzed [01:06:06]. This radicalizes the public [01:07:19].

Climax and Resolution

The crisis culminates in a “climax,” where conflicts escalate to a point that the survival of the political system or national identity is at stake [01:08:02]. This leads to extreme public mobilization [01:08:22].

• Total Wars: Historically, all total wars in Anglo-American history have occurred during Fourth Turnings [01:08:47]. Howe notes that if weapons of mass destruction had existed during the Civil War, they likely would have been used [01:09:02].
• Stalemate and Resolution: The current political stalemate is unsustainable. One side eventually wins, or an external conflict forces unity [01:12:09]. Howe gives a 20% chance of an endogenous (internal) cataclysm resulting in a 0.1% population kill-off in the next 20 years [01:20:17].
• Internal vs. External Conflict: The resolution can be through an internal conflict (like the Civil War) or an external one (like World War II) [01:19:53]. Often, these are not mutually exclusive; losing sides in civil conflicts tend to invite foreign allies, potentially leading to intertwined internal and external conflicts [01:29:04].

The Coming Spring (Golden Age)

While Fourth Turnings are periods of intense conflict and danger, they are not simply “horrible accidents” [01:24:05]. They serve to rejuvenate public institutions and civic life [01:25:17]. Following the crisis, society enters a “golden age” or “High” period, characterized by:

• From Individualism to Community: A fundamental shift towards collective action and responsibility [01:33:00].
• From Privilege to Equality: Periods of significant increases in income and wealth equality [01:33:37].
• From Defiance to Authority: Social authority becomes more important, and coordination is less fraught [01:34:15].
• From Deferral to Permanence: Society moves from deferring problems to enacting huge, durable reforms in government structure, often during periods of crisis [01:36:08].
• From Irony to Convention: A return to more conventional cultural norms, which eventually provides a “gift” for the next Awakening generation to rebel against [01:38:17].

This process, while painful, is part of a natural pattern, like “forests need fires, rivers need floods” [01:27:24]. It’s how social solidarity and trust are rekindled for future generations [01:23:19]. This theory offers a framework for understanding potential future societal changes and managing societal challenges, especially given the current metacrisis.