From: jimruttshow8596
Clio Dynamics, the science of history, seeks to understand and predict the dynamics of human societies [00:02:48]. One of its primary motivations is to understand why large-scale societies, despite being capable of providing widespread well-being, often experience “end times” periods of social dysfunction and political disintegration, sometimes leading to outright collapse [00:03:31].
Drivers of Instability
Research from historical databases like Seshat and Crisis DB reveals ubiquitous factors contributing to periods of social dysfunction [01:16:57]:
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Elite Overproduction This occurs when the number of individuals aspiring to elite positions far exceeds the available positions of power [01:17:09]. While some competition is beneficial, excessive competition is disruptive [01:17:40]. It leads to the undermining of social norms and the breaking of rules, potentially escalating to civil unrest or civil war [01:17:58]. The number of wealthy individuals (e.g., decamillionaires) in the United States, for instance, has increased tenfold in the last 40 years, leading more of them to seek political power, even as the number of official positions remains constant [00:42:51].
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Popular Immiseration This refers to the declining economic well-being of the general population [01:14:41].
- Relative Wage Decline: A key indicator is the “relative wage,” which measures the median wage or unskilled worker wage against GDP per capita [02:09:53]. In the US, the relative wage has significantly declined since the late 1970s, indicating that workers stopped sharing in general prosperity, with wealth increasingly concentrating among economic elites [02:22:22]. This phenomenon is termed the “wealth pump,” which transfers wealth from the poor to the rich [02:22:30].
- Generational Comparison: People measure their well-being relative to other population segments and, more importantly, to previous generations [02:26:28]. When the expectation of increased well-being compared to parents is not met, discontent rises [02:27:30]. For example, the median worker now works 40% more to afford a house compared to 40 years ago [02:28:04], and working-class families have to work nearly four times as long to put a child through college than in the 1970s [02:28:34].
The Role of Failed Elite Aspirants
The wealth pump, by increasing precarity for the general population, creates a strong push for individuals to seek credentials, like college or advanced degrees, to escape this precarity [00:45:13]. This leads to an overproduction of credentialed individuals (e.g., three times as many lawyers trained as there are positions for them) [00:46:01]. Many of these “failed aspirant elites” are intelligent, ambitious, well-educated, and well-connected, but find themselves in low-paying jobs or with significant debt [00:46:37]. They become a primary source of potential revolutionaries and radicals, or “counter-elites,” who organize and lead popular discontent [00:47:27]. Historically, figures like Lenin, Castro, and Robespierre were lawyers [00:47:32]. The combination of popular immiseration (fuel) and counter-elites (igniters) creates an explosive mixture for social unrest [00:48:49].
Unpredictable Triggers
While the structural forces (elite overproduction and popular immiseration) build up over years or decades and are somewhat predictable, the specific “sparks” that ignite a crisis are largely unpredictable [00:58:22]. These triggers can include:
- Assassinations [00:58:33]
- Geo-economic events like sudden spikes in food prices (e.g., contributing to the Arab Spring and French Revolution) [00:58:36]
- Individual acts of self-immolation [00:58:56]
- Disputed elections where one side refuses to accept the outcome [00:59:47]
- Escalating violent rhetoric leading to actual violence [01:00:46]
Mitigating Crisis Risk
Addressing societal challenges requires both short-term and long-term strategies.
Short-Term Mitigation (Reducing Fire Risk)
Current scientific understanding is still developing regarding the most effective ways out of crises [01:02:44]. However, historical examples provide insights:
- Learning from Past Successes: The British Empire avoided the 1848 revolutions, despite significant internal pressures, by implementing short-term solutions [01:03:33]. They shipped surplus workers (reducing labor oversupply and reversing wage decline) [01:04:31] and surplus elites (finding positions for them in the Empire) abroad [01:04:51]. This bought time for long-term reforms [01:05:08].
- Targeted Economic Adjustments: Increasing the minimum wage is a proposed short-term solution that is known not to hurt employment [01:07:11].
- “Employing” Potential Counter-Elites: Providing meaningful employment, even within public service or academia, to highly educated but frustrated individuals could reduce their desperation and remove potential counter-elites from the equation [01:07:49].
Long-Term Solutions (Reducing Fuel Production)
The fundamental long-term solution is to “shut down the wealth pump” and rebalance the economy [01:06:39]. This would make the social pyramid less top-heavy over time [01:06:50].
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Historical Examples:
- British Reforms: The British eventually enacted long-term solutions, such as expanding voting rights to make the political system more democratic [01:05:18], giving workers formal power to organize and bargain [01:05:22], and abolishing the Corn Laws, which had acted as a “mini wealth pump” by artificially inflating food prices for the poor [01:05:31].
- Post-FDR Consensus: The US experienced a period (roughly 1930s-1970s) characterized by high marginal tax rates on top incomes (e.g., 91% in 1964) [01:08:42], which likely contributed to a more equitable distribution of wealth and reduced the power of the wealth pump.
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Investing in the Science of Social Health: Just as there are sciences for human health and environmental health, there needs to be a robust science of social health to understand and prevent societal breakdowns [00:04:17]. This requires significant investment in data collection and theory testing within Clio Dynamics [01:03:15].
Avoiding Violence
Violent revolutions typically lead to immense human misery and often simply exchange one problematic regime for another [01:10:16]. Only a small percentage (10-15%) of historical crises have been resolved in a less bloody way [01:11:14]. The goal should be to pursue peaceful revolutions or reforms that implement necessary changes without mass violence [01:11:26]. Societies that experienced significant internal conflicts in the past (e.g., England’s Glorious Revolution after the Civil War, the US Progressive Era and New Deal after the Civil War) sometimes took steps to avoid the worst outcomes due to the collective memory of past suffering [01:12:48]. The absence of such recent memory makes the current situation potentially more dangerous [01:13:10].