Elite overproduction and societal instability

From: jimruttshow8596

Cliodynamics is a science of history that aims to rigorously test theories against data to understand the historical dynamics of human societies [02:52:00]. This field seeks to understand why large-scale societies, despite their capacity for broadly based well-being, have almost inevitably in the past experienced “end times”—periods of social dysfunction, political disintegration, and sometimes outright collapse [03:38:00].

Core Drivers of Societal Instability

Based on data from extensive historical databases like Seshat and Crisis DB, two primary drivers consistently emerge as precursors to periods of social dysfunction and political disintegration: popular immiseration and elite overproduction [15:04:00].

Popular Immiseration

Popular immiseration refers to the declining well-being of the general population [11:41:00].

• Measurement: A key indicator is the “relative wage,” calculated as nominal wage divided by nominal GDP per capita [20:53:00]. This metric helps overcome the difficulties of adjusting for inflation and different consumption baskets [20:15:00].
• Trend in the US: In the United States, the relative wage has nearly halved since the 1950s, indicating that workers stopped sharing in general prosperity [19:34:00].
• Biological Proxy: The average stature (height) of a population serves as a reliable proxy for biological well-being, as it reflects economic conditions [11:54:00]. Declining average height, as observed in pre-crisis periods, signals that the population is struggling [12:54:00]. Even in the modern United States, average heights for all demographic groups have declined in the last 20-30 years [14:06:00].
• Relative Expectations: People assess their well-being relative to others in society and, more importantly, relative to previous generations [26:28:00]. Until the late 1970s, each generation in America saw an increase in well-being compared to their parents, a trend that has since stopped or reversed [27:22:00]. Major items like housing and education have become disproportionately expensive for the median worker, contributing to discontent [27:51:00].
• Consequence: Popular immiseration increases societal discontent and creates a “mass mobilization potential” for political action or rebellion [24:41:00].

Elite Overproduction

Elite overproduction occurs when the number of individuals aspiring to elite positions—those concentrating social power—greatly exceeds the available positions [17:26:00].

• Definition of Elites: Elites are a small proportion of the population holding social power, which can manifest as military, economic, political/administrative, or ideological power [36:30:00]. In democratic capitalist societies like the US, governing elites are typically a coalition of economic and political elites, with economic elites often dominating [37:57:00].
• Musical Chairs Analogy: This phenomenon is likened to a game of musical chairs, where the number of elite aspirants far outstrips the “chairs” (positions of power) [17:14:00].
• Consequences:
  • Intensified Competition: Excessive competition among elites becomes disruptive and dysfunctional, leading to the undermining of social norms and rule-breaking in the political process [17:40:00].
  • Political Instability: Historically, this has led to increased political instability and even civil war [18:10:00]. For example, the 2016 Republican primaries in the US, with 17 major candidates, exemplified this intense competition for a single position [18:42:00].

The Wealth Pump

The “wealth pump” is a perverse mechanism that redistributes wealth from the poor to the rich [22:41:00]. It explains how both popular immiseration and elite overproduction develop.

• Operation: The gap between worker productivity (or GDP per capita) and compensation, which started widening around the late 1970s, signifies this wealth transfer [22:26:00].
• Historical Mechanisms: In the Middle Ages, population growth led to overpopulation and depressed wages, while increasing rents for landlords, funneling more wealth to elites [23:22:00]. In the modern US, ruling elites reconfigure the economy for their own benefit [24:07:00].
• Impact on Elites: The wealth pump also leads to an “overproduction of wealthy people” [42:48:00]. The number of deca-millionaires (those with over $10 million) in the US has increased tenfold in the past 40 years, while the overall population grew by only 40% [42:54:00]. Many of these newly wealthy individuals seek political influence, further intensifying elite competition [43:39:00].

Frustrated Aspirant Elites (Counter-Elites)

A significant consequence of the wealth pump and elite overproduction is the creation of “frustrated aspirant elites” or “counter-elites” [44:42:00].

• Educational Push: The increasing precarity of existence pushes people, especially those without inherited wealth, to pursue advanced credentials like college, PhD, or law degrees, hoping to escape poverty [45:16:00].
• Oversupply of Credentials: Society now trains three times as many lawyers as there are positions for them, leading to a bimodal distribution of salaries where many graduates are burdened by debt with insufficient income [45:55:00].
• Source of Radicals: These frustrated, intelligent, ambitious, and well-educated individuals become a primary source of potential revolutionaries and radicals, as they are motivated to use their skills to “get ahead of the game” [47:06:00]. Historically, figures like Lenin, Castro, and Robespierre were lawyers [47:32:00].
• Role in Revolutions: While popular discontent provides the “fuel,” counter-elites provide the “organization” and leadership necessary to overthrow a regime [48:34:00]. The combination of counter-elites and popular discontent creates an “explosive mixture” [48:49:00].

Historical Parallels and Current Dynamics

Historical dynamics show patterns repeating in different contexts.

• Medieval Europe: The Black Death in the 14th century, occurring after a century of wealth pump operation, drastically reduced the population base. This, combined with an already top-heavy elite pyramid, led to widespread collapse, including the Hundred Years’ War and the Wars of the Roses, where elites “cheerfully exterminated each other” [34:25:00].
• Steepening Social Pyramid: The social pyramid has become significantly steeper, especially since the 1970s. For example, CEO pay has increased from 15 times the factory floor worker in 1965 to 236 times in 2021 [30:01:00]. This steepness intensifies the “call from the pyramid,” driving more people to seek elite positions [31:19:00].
• Intra-Elite Conflict: Increased competition is observed at all levels of the elite hierarchy. Historical dueling rates, for instance, were numerically much higher during periods of increased intra-elite competition, such as the mid-19th century Age of Revolutions and the 17th-century crisis [53:50:00].

Predictability and Triggers of Crises

Human social systems are predictable to a degree, especially regarding structural processes like immiseration and elite overproduction, which change slowly over years or decades [57:36:00]. However, the specific triggers that set off a crisis are essentially unpredictable [58:26:00].

• Examples of Triggers: Triggers can range from the assassination of a ruler to geo-economic effects like sudden spikes in food prices (as seen in the Arab Spring and the French Revolution) [58:33:00].
• Current Concerns: The impending 2024 US elections are a concern, as the opposing side may not accept the outcome, potentially exacerbated by additional triggers leading to a “cascade of violence” [59:43:00]. The increasing intensity of violent rhetoric also mirrors patterns seen in historical run-ups to civil wars [01:00:46].

Mitigation and Solutions

Addressing societal challenges requires both short-term and long-term strategies.

Short-Term Mitigation

• Historical Example (British Empire): In the mid-19th century, the British Empire averted revolution during the Chartists period by shipping millions of surplus workers (reducing labor oversupply) and surplus elites (providing positions in the Empire) to colonies [01:04:25]. This bought time for longer-term reforms.
• Modern Suggestions: Increasing the minimum wage is one obvious step that could help immediately [01:07:01]. Employing frustrated elites, such as history PhDs, could also reduce desperation among them [01:08:07].

Long-Term Solutions

The primary long-term solution is to “shut down the wealth pump” and rebalance the economy [01:06:39].

• Historical Example (British Empire): The British elites implemented long-term solutions by expanding suffrage, giving workers formal power to organize and bargain, and abolishing the Corn Laws, which had driven up food prices and disproportionately benefited landlords [01:05:10].
• Modern Implications: This would involve policies that reverse the trend of wealth concentration and ensure a broader distribution of prosperity, potentially including higher tax rates on top incomes, similar to the post-FDR consensus in the US [01:08:34].

The Aversion to Violence

Revolution and state collapse often lead to immense human misery and are not inherently beneficial [01:10:16]. Violent revolutions frequently exchange one problematic regime for another without improving the situation [01:10:54].

• Historical Lessons: Societies that managed to navigate crises relatively peacefully (e.g., England’s Glorious Revolution of 1688 or the American Progressive Era and New Deal reforms) often did so because their elites remembered the horrors of previous civil conflicts and took steps to avoid similar outcomes [01:12:33]. The lack of such direct historical memory in current generations increases the risk of unchecked escalation of violence [01:13:10].
• Preferred Path: A “peaceful revolution,” involving necessary reforms and policies implemented without widespread violence, is the preferred way forward [01:11:26].