From: jameskerlindsay
On 14 May 2023, Turkey is set to hold what many consider to be one of the most critical elections in its history [00:00:00]. For two decades, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been the dominant figure in Turkish politics, profoundly transforming the country and its global standing [00:00:08]. This transformation, however, has increasingly led Turkey in a troubling direction, marked by growing authoritarianism internally and externally [00:00:19].
Historical Context of Turkey
Turkey, now officially known as Türkiye, is located in the Eastern Mediterranean at the intersection of Europe and Asia [00:01:33]. It is the 36th largest country globally by land area, with a population of approximately 85 million [00:01:43]. While the majority are ethnic Turks, significant minority groups exist, with Kurds comprising 10 to 20 percent of the population [00:01:56]. Although predominantly Sunni Muslim, Turkey also has smaller non-Muslim communities, including Greeks, Jews, and Armenians [00:02:05]. Its per capita GDP of around US$9,700 categorizes it as a middle-income country [00:02:16].
Modern Turkey’s history dates back to the Ottoman Empire, which emerged in the 12th century and by the 18th century dominated Southeast Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East [00:02:24]. The Empire faced a steep decline by the early 20th century, particularly after siding with Germany in the First World War [00:02:37]. Turkish nationalist forces, led by Mustafa Kemal (later Atatürk), fought back, leading to the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 [00:02:54].
As Turkey’s first president, Atatürk instituted widespread economic, political, and social reforms to modernize the country and align it with Europe [00:03:10]. These reforms included introducing surnames, replacing the Ottoman Arab script with the Roman alphabet, and, controversially, rolling back Islam’s influence in society by establishing a strict separation of religion and state [00:03:20]. By his death in 1938, Atatürk had completely transformed Turkey [00:03:35].
In the following decades, Turkey continued its Western orientation, joining NATO in 1952 and becoming a strategically vital alliance member due to its unique non-arctic route into the Soviet Union [00:03:41]. However, internal problems emerged, with the military gaining significant influence [00:03:55]. This culminated in a 1960 military coup that overthrew and executed the prime minister, accused of undermining the Constitution [00:04:03]. Civilian control was restored, but instability, marked by political violence, persisted through the 1970s, leading to another military takeover in 1980 for three years [00:04:13].
By the 1990s, despite a return to civilian democracy, Turkey was plagued by deep divisions between mainstream political parties [00:04:30]. New challenges arose, including a major Kurdish separatist insurgency in the Southeast and the entry of Islam into mainstream politics despite military opposition [00:04:41]. It was into this environment that Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged [00:04:55].
Erdogan’s Emergence and Early Rule
Born on February 26, 1954, in Istanbul, Erdogan spent his youth on the Black Sea coast before returning to Istanbul [00:05:00]. He attended an Islamic school and became involved in politics as a student, joining a religious party [00:05:10]. Over subsequent decades, he ascended the political ladder, becoming the mayor of Istanbul in 1994 [00:05:17]. His religious beliefs led to his jailing for four months in 1998 for reciting a poem deemed a call to religious violence [00:05:25]. Despite this, he continued his political career, becoming the head of the new Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001 [00:05:38].
In November 2002, following an economic and constitutional crisis, the AKP won a landslide victory in the general election [00:05:49]. Though initially unable to stand for Parliament due to his prior conviction, the new government swiftly overturned the ban [00:06:00]. Erdogan was elected as an MP and became prime minister on March 14, 2003 [00:06:10].
Initially, many questioned his motives, fearing he would pursue an overtly religious agenda and isolate Turkey from the West [00:06:17]. However, Erdogan appeared to defy sceptics by prioritizing European Union membership [00:06:27]. To this end, he focused on improving relations with Greece and resolving the Cyprus division, both obstacles to Turkish accession [00:06:35]. In 2005, Turkey formally began accession talks with the EU [00:06:46].
Initial Reforms and Liberalization
The prospect of EU accession spurred significant changes in Turkey during Erdogan’s first few years in power [00:06:53]. Steps were taken to liberalize society, including easing restrictions on religion in public life, such as allowing women to wear headscarves in government offices [00:06:58]. Crucially, his administration also introduced significant new minority rights, including Kurdish language education, and reined in the military [00:07:09].
Shift Towards Authoritarianism
Despite these initial positive transformations, concerns about Erdogan’s true intentions began to grow [00:07:19]. After the AKP secured another overwhelming victory in 2007, seemingly defeating all internal opposition, the 2011 elections were marred by allegations of electoral fraud [00:07:23].
The real turning point occurred in May 2013, when police violently dispersed protesters attempting to block a park development in central Istanbul [00:07:35]. This minor protest escalated into widespread nationwide demonstrations and violent clashes involving hundreds of thousands [00:07:47]. Though the government suppressed the unrest, Erdogan responded by clamping down on opposition and becoming increasingly autocratic, rather than adopting a conciliatory approach [00:08:03].
In 2014, Erdogan ran for and won the presidency, a role previously largely ceremonial [00:08:10]. He then appointed a compliant prime minister, effectively consolidating his control over Turkey [00:08:21].
The 2016 Coup Attempt and Aftermath
Beneath the surface of seemingly complete control, discontent was brewing [00:08:26]. This came to international attention on July 15, 2016, when elements within the military attempted a coup, which quickly collapsed [00:08:34]. In response, the government launched a massive crackdown, blaming a dissident religious leader and jailing thousands [00:08:44]. Anyone suspected of opposing the AKP was purged from positions in the civil service, military, judiciary, and higher education [00:08:52].
This period saw Erdogan further consolidate his power [00:09:00]. In 2017, he introduced constitutional changes, later approved by referendum, that abolished the prime minister post and created an executive presidency, similar to the United States [00:09:05].
Current State and Global Position
Since 2017, concerns about Turkey have continued to escalate, both domestically and internationally [00:09:18]. Internally, Turkey has become a profoundly illiberal state [00:09:24]:
- The media is heavily controlled [00:09:28].
- Human rights abuses are rampant [00:09:30].
- There are serious worries about the democratic system [00:09:32].
- The economy is in disarray [00:09:34].
- Persistent allegations of high-level corruption exist [00:09:36].
Erdogan’s increasingly autocratic rule has been characterized by growing megalomania [00:09:39]. This is evident in his decision to build a massive presidential palace in Ankara, legislation making insulting the president a criminal offense, and the renaming of the country [00:09:47].
On foreign policy, Erdogan has steered Turkey further away from the West [00:10:03]. His authoritarianism has effectively ended any hope for Turkish EU membership, with talks halted for the past decade [00:10:08]. There are also concerns about Turkey’s reliability as a NATO ally [00:10:19]. While attempting to establish Turkey as an international actor by building ties across the Balkans, Africa, and Central Asia, Erdogan has developed a contentious relationship with Vladimir Putin [00:10:25]. This includes purchasing a Russian-made anti-aircraft missile system, to the annoyance of the United States, and taking an ambivalent stance on Ukraine, continuing trade with Russia despite NATO partners imposing sanctions [00:10:37].
This overall picture is of a Turkey led by an authoritarian leader increasingly isolated from Turkish society and its traditional partners [00:10:52].
The Upcoming Election and Erdogan’s Legacy
The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are seen by many as the best opportunity to unseat Erdogan and reverse the constitutional reforms that centralized power [00:11:03]. Although his poll ratings have declined, particularly after the devastating 2023 earthquake and accusations of government failure, the election remains tight [00:11:19]. A coalition of six opposition parties aims to unseat him, but appears divided, and other candidates refusing to join may split the vote, potentially allowing Erdogan to remain in power [00:11:35].
The Erdogan era’s legacy is complex [00:11:50]. It’s easy to forget the political chaos and illiberal democracy that engulfed Turkey before his ascent, marked by infighting and heavy restrictions on human and minority rights [00:11:53]. For about his first decade in power, Erdogan did move Turkey in a broadly positive direction [00:12:11]. He attempted to resolve the Cyprus issue, introduced significant domestic political and social reforms, and opened talks with the European Union [00:12:19].
However, one cannot overlook the troubling course Turkey has taken in his second decade [00:12:27]. This period has seen the country move in a genuinely worrying direction, both internally and externally [00:12:34]. There have even been calls for Turkey to be removed from NATO, as few in the West now consider it a reliable ally [00:12:40]. Regardless of the challenges of the pre-Erdogan past or the uncertainties of a post-Erdogan future, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has utterly transformed Turkey, initially for the better, and more recently for the worse [00:12:55].