From: jameskerlindsay
In recent years, there has been growing concern about Hungary’s direction under its leader, Viktor Orbán [00:00:00]. Beyond attacking democratic freedoms domestically, Orbán has been perceived as undermining Western solidarity regarding Ukraine [00:00:10]. His actions have led many to believe he is actively serving Russia’s interests [00:00:17].
Background: Hungary in Europe
Hungary is a landlocked country in Central Europe, surrounded by seven nations: Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Austria [00:02:01]. It is the 108th largest member of the UN, with a population of approximately 9.8 million [00:02:14]. While most surrounding countries speak Indo-European languages, Hungarian belongs to a separate language family alongside Finnish and Estonian [00:02:39].
Historically, Hungary established its first kingdom in the 11th century [00:02:56]. It later formed the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which lasted until the end of World War I, becoming an independent state under the Treaty of Trianon [00:02:59]. This treaty stripped Hungary of almost two-thirds of its traditional territories, a source of bitterness for many Hungarians to this day [00:03:14]. After allying with Nazi Germany in WWII, Hungary fell under Soviet influence, joining the Warsaw Pact [00:03:27]. A popular uprising against Soviet control in 1956 was brutally suppressed [00:03:42].
As the Cold War ended, Hungary peacefully transitioned to democracy, with the last Soviet troops leaving in June 1991 [00:03:48]. It quickly oriented itself towards the West, applying for EU membership in 1994 and joining NATO in March 1999, as one of the first former Warsaw Pact members [00:04:03]. On May 1, 2004, Hungary joined the European Union [00:04:17]. Initially, Hungary was seen as a success story of EU and NATO enlargement, effectively transitioning to democracy and attracting investment [00:04:28].
Viktor Orbán’s Shift to “Illiberal Democracy”
In May 2010, the Fidesz party, led by Viktor Orbán, won a landslide victory [00:05:06]. Orbán, who served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002 during Hungary’s significant moves towards Western integration, was initially seen as an internationalist liberal [00:05:17]. However, his approach soon changed [00:05:30].
Within months, Orbán introduced measures to restrict press freedoms, which were later watered down due to EU pressure [00:05:35]. He controversially compared the EU to the Soviet Union [00:05:43]. As he consolidated power, problems grew, with further restrictions on media, civil liberties, and human rights [00:05:54]. By 2014, Orbán openly declared his vision for Hungary as an “illiberal democracy” based on a “different, special, national approach” [00:06:01].
This period also saw increased nationalism and xenophobia. Orbán antagonized neighbors by strengthening ties with Hungarian communities abroad [00:06:13] and became overtly anti-immigrant [00:06:23]. During the 2015 Refugee Crisis, he undermined EU solidarity by refusing to resettle asylum seekers, calling them “potential terrorists” and “intruders” [00:06:28]. He asserted a vision of Hungary “only for Hungarians” [00:06:39].
Despite mounting criticism, Orbán remained largely untroubled, appearing to revel in his notoriety [00:06:43]. This was partly due to the EU’s persistent failure to tackle his behavior, as Hungary became skilled at navigating the bloc’s politics by backing down only when necessary [00:06:52]. He also enjoyed high-level protection from the center-right European People’s Party [00:07:08]. Even after the European Parliament voted to start infringement proceedings in 2018, Orbán was safe, as any serious action, like the “nuclear option” of suspending membership rights, required unanimous support from all other member states, including Poland, which had also taken an illiberal turn and served as Hungary’s closest ally [00:07:16].
By 2019, Freedom House downgraded Hungary’s democratic standards to “partly free” – the only EU member with this rating [00:07:43]. It noted Orbán’s control over the opposition, media, religious groups, academia, NGOs, courts, asylum seekers, and the private sector [00:07:54]. Many observers concluded that Hungary had essentially become a corrupt one-party state, and there were fears that Orbán’s model could influence others [00:08:07].
Hungary’s Relations with Russia and Ukraine
While domestic issues were a concern, the war in Ukraine brought Hungary to wider international attention [00:08:21]. Upon the Russian invasion, fears arose that Hungary would block Western action against Moscow, given Orbán’s close relationship with Putin and strained relations between Budapest and Kyiv over the Hungarian minority in Ukraine [00:08:32].
Initially, Orbán surprised observers by opposing the invasion and supporting EU sanctions, though Hungary still hampered NATO efforts to supply military aid by restricting its airspace to Ukrainian aircraft [00:08:53]. This initial stance was attributed to his desire to avoid appearing too pro-Russian before upcoming elections, given memories of 1956 [00:09:11].
However, after Fidesz won another landslide victory and Putin congratulated Orbán, the Hungarian leader quickly changed his position, reappointing pro-Russian figures to his government [00:09:22]. Hungary became increasingly obstructive, trying to limit the scale of sanctions on Russia and refusing to back EU proposals to reduce Russian gas consumption, ultimately forcing other EU members to exempt Hungary [00:09:35]. The country was already in talks to increase its Russian gas supplies [00:09:51]. Furthermore, alongside Turkey, Hungary has not yet ratified Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership [00:10:01].
Orbán continues to voice openly nationalist and racist views [00:10:08]. In July 2022, he stated that Hungarians did not want to become a “mixed race,” drawing international condemnation and even prompting one of his advisors to resign over what she called his “pure Nazi text” [00:10:15].
Potential Motivations and EU Response
Many believe Orbán is acting on Russia’s behalf, suggesting Hungary is Moscow’s “Trojan Horse” within the West [00:10:38]. While this is plausible, given patterns of Russian interference elsewhere, caution is advised [00:10:47]. Orbán’s position could be shaped by self-centered factors, including:
- A genuine commitment to authoritarian national populism [00:11:00].
- Admiration for the Russian leader [00:11:06].
- A desire to antagonize Western partners [00:11:08].
- A way to divert national attention during wholesale corruption [00:11:14].
- Prioritizing Hungary’s economic interests over solidarity with EU/NATO partners or Ukraine [00:11:17].
Regardless of the reasons, the tide may be turning against him [00:11:24]. In February 2022, the European Court of Justice ruled that EU funds can be withheld from members that do not abide by the body’s fundamental values [00:11:31]. Consequently, in September, the European Commission announced plans to withhold 7.5 billion euros of funding due to persistent public procurement corruption [00:11:40]. While Budapest agreed to introduce measures to fix the problem, many remain skeptical, believing Orbán will revert to his old ways after addressing the immediate issue [00:11:50].
Many argue that Orbán remains deeply intolerant, authoritarian, and xenophobic [00:12:04]. For this reason, some advocate for tougher steps, even calling for Hungary’s expulsion from NATO and the EU [00:12:13]. However, there is currently no mechanism for a country to be expelled from either body [00:12:21]. Despite Orbán’s misdeeds, there is a deep reluctance to pursue such a radical and unprecedented step [00:12:29].
Nonetheless, not taking decisive action carries significant risks [00:12:40]. Hungary’s position on democratic standards, civil liberties, human rights, and its dealings with Russia fundamentally clash with the values of almost all its EU and NATO partners [00:12:47]. By not acting, both organizations risk undermining their own values and encouraging other members to follow Hungary’s path [00:13:04]. The West needs to seriously consider how to address its “Hungary problem” [00:13:15].