From: jameskerlindsay
Turkey faces a critical juncture regarding its future direction, particularly concerning the long-serving president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan [00:00:16]. The arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, the Mayor of Istanbul and a leading political challenger, on corruption charges in March, sparked widespread protests and raised questions about Erdogan’s intentions [00:00:03][00:00:07][00:00:12][00:00:16]. While many interpret this as an attempt by Erdogan to prolong his own power, another explanation suggests he may be preparing for a successor [00:00:21][00:00:25].
Power Transition in Authoritarian Regimes
The transfer of power in authoritarian regimes can occur in various ways [00:00:46][00:00:51]:
- Overthrow through mass protests or violent revolution [00:00:55].
- Defeat at the ballot box where a veneer of democracy remains [00:01:01].
- Voluntary stepping down, sometimes with promises of immunity [00:01:11].
- Death in office, leading to a power struggle within the ruling party [00:01:18].
- Grooming a trusted successor [00:01:25].
After two decades in power, questions have arisen about the future of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership [00:01:35][00:01:38]. Although he is officially due to step down in 2028 and has previously signaled his wish to retire, many suspect he may attempt to prolong his term [00:01:43][00:01:48].
Historical Context of Modern Turkey
The Republic of Turkey, now officially Türkiye, was founded in 1923 under the leadership of General Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, emerging from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire [00:02:41][00:02:46]. Atatürk introduced radical social, political, and economic policies, including a new Latin-based alphabet and a strict separation of religion and state [00:02:52][00:02:56][00:03:00][00:03:04]. Despite introducing elements of democracy, such as women’s suffrage, the country remained authoritarian in its early years [00:03:07][00:03:11].
Turkey transitioned to a multi-party democracy in 1946, holding its first competitive parliamentary elections in 1950 [00:03:43][00:03:47]. However, the nation experienced significant political turmoil, marked by military coups in 1960, 1971, and 1980, amidst growing political polarization and violence [00:04:00][00:04:05][00:04:12][00:04:17][00:04:21]. By the 1990s, the military grew concerned about the rise of political Islam [00:04:44].
The Rise of Political Islam and Erdogan’s Early Career
The challenge to Turkey’s traditional secularism began with the establishment of the National Salvation Party in 1972 by Necmettin Erbakan [00:04:59][00:05:03]. After this party was banned, Erbakan formed the Welfare Party, which led him to become Turkey’s first Islamist prime minister in 1996 [00:05:16][00:05:19][00:05:25]. The military forced him from office and banned the party a year later [00:05:34][00:05:39].
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a protégé of Erbakan, gained prominence as Mayor of Istanbul in 1994 [00:05:39][00:05:44][00:05:47]. Following the Welfare Party’s ban, he was jailed for religious incitement [00:05:51][00:05:54]. In 2001, Erdogan founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which won a landslide victory in the 2002 parliamentary elections [00:05:59][00:06:03][00:06:08][00:06:11]. Despite an initial ban from running, the AKP overturned it, and Erdogan became prime minister on March 14, 2003 [00:06:18][00:06:22][00:06:26].
Erdogan’s Consolidation of Power
Initially, Erdogan pursued a modernizing agenda, curtailing the military’s power as part of efforts to join the European Union [00:06:34][00:06:36][00:06:42][00:06:45]. He secured further election victories in 2007 and 2011 [00:06:48]. However, by the end of his first decade in office, concerns grew about his increasing authoritarianism [00:06:54][00:06:59].
In 2013, following mass demonstrations, Erdogan introduced restrictions on civil liberties, including limits on protest rights, media, and freedom of speech [00:07:03][00:07:07][00:07:11]. He further consolidated power by becoming president in 2014, giving up the post of prime minister [00:07:16][00:07:21]. After an attempted coup in 2016, Erdogan launched a massive crackdown, purging the government, military, judiciary, schools, and universities of opposition [00:07:31][00:07:37][00:07:41]. He also successfully changed the constitution to abolish the prime minister’s post and create a US-style executive presidency [00:07:45][00:07:49]. Erdogan’s rule became openly authoritarian, strengthened further after winning the 2018 presidential election [00:07:55][00:07:59][00:08:03].
Questions of Succession and The 2023 Turkish Elections
Despite his firm grip on power, Erdogan has shown signs of tiring as he approaches his 70th birthday, with persistent rumors about his health [00:08:08][00:08:12][00:08:17]. Under the current constitution, he would not be permitted to stand for a third term when his office ends in 2028, and he had even hinted at retirement [00:08:19][00:08:22][00:08:28]. However, recent suggestions indicate Erdogan may be exploring ways to circumvent these constitutional restrictions [00:08:34][00:08:39][00:08:42].
The Ekrem Imamoğlu Case
Ekrem Imamoğlu, the popular Mayor of Istanbul, was poised to be the Republican People’s Party’s candidate for the next presidential election [00:08:47][00:08:53]. The latest crisis began when Istanbul University revoked Imamoğlu’s degree on March 18, citing irregularities during his studies, a crucial move as the Turkish constitution requires a university diploma for the president [00:09:14][00:09:20][00:09:26][00:09:29]. The following morning, Imamoğlu and about a hundred others were arrested on suspicion of corruption and embezzlement [00:09:39][00:09:42].
This news sparked widespread outrage, with hundreds of thousands protesting in Istanbul despite a four-day ban on demonstrations [00:09:46][00:09:48][00:09:53]. Most observers viewed this as a clear attempt by Erdogan to eliminate the greatest threat to his power [00:09:57]. The RPP leader called the move a “coup d’état against the people’s right to elect their leader” [00:10:02][00:10:08].
Paths Forward: Prolonging Power or Grooming a Successor?
While it is tempting to view these events as Erdogan’s direct attempt to cling to power, particularly with suggestions of a third term, another rationale might be at play [00:10:12][00:10:15][00:10:19]. Given his age and growing frailty, some believe he may be unable to continue much longer [00:10:24][00:10:27]. In this scenario, Erdogan might be clearing the way for a successor rather than preparing for another presidential run [00:10:31][00:10:35].
Potential Successors to Erdogan’s Leadership
Several figures have been suggested as potential successors, often drawing parallels to Azerbaijan, where power passed within the family [00:10:49][00:10:51][00:10:56][00:10:59].
Family Members
- Bilal Erdogan (Son): Though widely known and connected to Islamist and conservative circles, Bilal has primarily focused on business and has taken little active role in politics. There is little sign Erdogan has been grooming him for power [00:11:05][00:11:10][00:11:13][00:11:17][00:11:23].
- Berat Albayrak (Son-in-law): Married to Erdogan’s daughter Esra, Albayrak served as energy minister and then finance minister [00:11:29][00:11:32][00:11:39]. He was long considered the natural successor but resigned in 2020 after policy failures and clashes with other government figures [00:11:43][00:11:46][00:11:50].
- Selçuk Bayraktar (Son-in-law): Erdogan’s other son-in-law has gained national prominence as the head of a highly successful military drone manufacturer [00:11:56][00:12:02][00:12:05]. His company’s drones are one of Turkey’s most successful technology exports, making him highly respected and popular, especially in nationalist circles [00:12:09][00:12:13]. However, he currently lacks government experience [00:12:19].
Beyond the Immediate Family
- Hakan Fidan (Foreign Minister): Previously head of the intelligence service, Fidan is seen as a close and trusted ally of Erdogan [00:12:29][00:12:34]. Interestingly, he is not a member of the AKP, though this could change [00:12:39].
Conclusion
The recent events, particularly the arrest of Ekrem Imamoğlu, may not solely be about Erdogan preserving his own political power [00:12:47][00:12:54]. They could be part of a broader effort to pave the way for political control to pass to a designated successor [00:12:57]. This transition could occur in 2028, when the next elections are scheduled, or Erdogan might seek another presidential run to gain more time to prepare a formal successor [00:13:02][00:13:06][00:13:09]. Erdogan’s dominance over Turkish politics for so long suggests he may now be clearing the way for a new era of leadership [00:13:15][00:13:18][00:13:22][00:13:29][00:13:32].