From: mk_thisisit
The head of the National Security Bureau addresses critical questions regarding potential conflicts, including the possibility of World War III, a Russian attack on Poland, and compulsory military service [00:00:00]. The civil prospect of war is considered real, emphasizing that if one does not go to the front, their children might [00:00:15].
Poland’s Defense Posture and Readiness
Poland is actively building the largest European land army [00:00:23], aiming to possess the “absolutely largest land army” in Europe [00:00:27]. The objective of supporting Ukraine is to win the war without engaging Polish soldiers directly [00:00:31].
Compulsory Military Service
There is a belief that compulsory military service should exist [00:00:10]. The debate around compulsory military service is much more dynamic in many Western countries than in Poland [00:29:47]. The speaker advocates for a broad public debate on military service, including widespread access to it [00:30:50]. However, he doesn’t believe there should be mandatory civic or public service [00:31:01].
The historical perception of military service in Poland, influenced by Soviet-era practices involving human rights violations and poor discipline, makes this debate difficult [00:33:40]. Modern military service offers opportunities for scientific, professional, and personal ambition, with direct combat roles being a minority [00:34:13]. Areas like logistics, planning, advanced weapons service, computerization, cyber combat, and cognitive tasks are far from the front line [00:34:36].
Russian Threat Assessment
Assessments of the threat from Russian imperialism and the Russian Federation’s ambitions should be viewed through the prism of:
- Actions taken by the Kremlin administration [00:24:48].
- Resources at its disposal and how they are managed [00:29:57].
- History [00:30:05].
Military Reforms
The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Shoigu, announced a plan for the reform of the Armed Forces by 2026, including the establishment of two armies and 14 brigades [00:31:12]. Vladimir Putin’s decree recorded the Russian Armed Forces’ strength at 1.3 million troops, structured within the Moscow and St. Petersburg military districts [00:39:52]. An army of such a strategic size cannot be perceived only through the prism of defensive use by a defensive alliance [00:50:47]. Maintaining such a large army incurs extraordinary financial costs for the Russian Federation, especially given the state of its public services and social benefits [00:52:19]. A country without war intentions would not invest to such an extent in military development [00:54:49].
Financial Reserves
Before the aggression in Ukraine, the Russian Federation had almost 300 billion of these reserves were frozen [01:14:48]. The Russian Federation has increased its reserves, buying gold on international markets, making a larger percentage of its reserve accumulated in gold [01:15:08]. Investing in gold makes sense if one plans for and expects a growing crisis, as the value of gold increases during crises [01:16:57]. This strategy suggests Russia is preparing for further aggression [01:17:27].
NATO’s Role and Article 5
An attack on any country on NATO’s eastern flank, particularly the Baltic countries, would have a critical impact on Poland’s functioning and extend the front around Poland, creating unfavorable security conditions [01:17:31]. Therefore, an attack on any of these countries is an attack on the entire eastern flank, including Poland [01:18:10].
NATO must remain united, and the durability and credibility of Article Five are paramount [01:18:20]. The credibility of Article 5 depends significantly on countries like Poland treating their commitment to the Baltic countries with “iron weight” [01:18:39].
Public debate and skepticism about Article 5 are natural in a democracy, even if experts question its effectiveness [01:19:46]. However, those participating in real planning processes and having access to detailed regional plans understand the depth of allied commitment [01:20:25]. The speaker recounted a situation where two Polish citizens died from a missile strike on NATO territory, demonstrating the immediate and serious nature of alliance obligations [01:32:33].
Article 5 is a living article, constantly debated and reaffirmed by democratic governments [01:25:01]. Western awareness is growing that defending the eastern flank (Romania, Poland, Finland) is not just defending individual countries, but the entire civilization and way of life [01:25:51]. If such a war breaks out, it will change the way of life for inhabitants of Germany, France, and Spain [01:26:27].
European Defense Challenges
Europe’s preparation for potential conflict is seen as too slow [01:41:53]. While leaders discuss developing arms industries, there is a lack of actual orders from Western countries to scale up production [01:22:21].
Funding and Industrial Capacity
The European Commission’s allocation of 500 million euros to invest in the arms industry is deemed “ridiculously small” and “scandalously small” given the critical moment [01:18:18]. Poland, through its National Ammunition Reserve program, allocated 2 billion zlotys (comparable to 500 million euros) solely from its state treasury budget for ammunition purchases and production [01:19:30]. This highlights a significant disparity in ambition and investment between a single country and the entire European Commission [01:19:50]. Poorly prepared applications for funding by Polish companies further exacerbate the problem [01:20:05].
The proportion of defense spending in NATO reveals that 80% comes from outside European Union countries [01:43:03]. To equalize this, proposals for 3% of GDP spending on defense are being discussed, which Lithuania has pledged to join next year [01:43:17]. Spending levels similar to the Cold War era are indispensable to avoid war [01:43:47]. Europe possesses all resources to prevent and win a war, but current spending is not optimized for a war effort, still largely based on civilian consumption [01:44:24].
Importance of Technological Innovation
Investment in armaments, while not directly improving quality of life, translates into security and the possibility of future development [01:45:01]. Military sectors have historically been cradles for the greatest technologies, innovations, and scientific achievements, providing both battlefield advantage and economic benefits [01:45:12]. Poland has the potential to produce advanced and guided ammunition, as well as cheaper and more efficient unmanned aerial vehicles [01:24:12].
The NATO DIANA accelerator program, supporting the development of new technologies, is seen as a crucial step for Poland, leveraging its human capital and talent pool [01:49:38].
Strategic Planning and Exercises
Poland is in the process of preparing a new National Security Strategy [01:53:41]. This document provides a high-level perspective on state security, covering not only military capabilities but also energy security, demographic security, and cybersecurity in the cyber domain [01:54:36].
Strategic exercises, such as those conducted by the National Security Bureau with government representatives, are crucial for practicing the transition of the state from peacetime to wartime [01:48:32]. These exercises cover:
- Transition to backup command positions [01:49:08].
- Designation of the commander-in-chief [01:49:10].
- Changes in command and control systems [01:49:16].
- Mobilization of the economy and citizens [01:49:30].
A “3 to 1 ratio” in military science dictates that an aggressor needs at least three times the force to succeed against a defending opponent [01:51:01]. In the context of Poland’s smaller population compared to Russia (40 million vs. 130 million), influencing this ratio is critical [01:52:12]. Ways to change this coefficient include:
- Increasing the survivability of Polish soldiers [01:52:52].
- Increasing their ability to strike the enemy, including using unmanned platforms to reduce risk to life [01:52:55].
- Building defense capabilities through proper fortification and situational awareness [01:53:07].
Addressing Public Concerns
The prospect of World War III and potential Russian aggression against Poland often leads to questions about citizens’ ability to leave the country [00:00:00]. While escape is a natural psychological reaction, it would likely be significantly more difficult to leave the country in such a scenario [00:32:23]. Military services would prioritize more important tasks than searching for individual citizens to force them to fight [00:37:35]. However, a soldier who panics provides no direct benefit [00:37:50]. The West does not fight in the same way as the Soviet army, where rear forces would eliminate those fleeing battlefields [00:38:04].
The idea that peace would continue in Spain or other European countries if World War III breaks out is considered naive; the world as we know it would fall to pieces [00:39:31]. The primary concern should be how to stand up for the world and way of life known, rather than planning escape [00:41:00].
International Cooperation and US Role
A recent visit by the Polish Prime Minister and President to the White House aimed to demonstrate the continuity and stability of Polish-American relations, regardless of who serves as US President [00:59:11]. The current discussion in the US Congress regarding political situations presents a real risk for Europe [00:59:37]. However, Donald Trump’s rhetoric has had a “mobilizing effect” on European countries, making them feel more responsible for security and strengthening their armed forces [01:00:09].
The United States’ presence in the Pacific and its rivalry with China is a challenge, but Europe must first take responsibility for its own security [01:01:31]. Europe remains the largest trading partner for the US, making the protection of this sales market crucial for the American economy [01:02:49].
Regarding sending troops to Ukraine, the speaker states that currently “nothing indicates and no such decisions have been made” [01:05:01]. The purpose of supporting Ukraine is to win the war without engaging European soldiers [01:05:28]. Sending troops would imply exhausting all other possibilities of support, which is not the case [01:05:49]. Setting “red lines” and declaring what will not be done in advance is considered a mistake; all options should remain on the table [01:06:21]. Immediate actions include providing long-range missiles and increasing production of Soviet-caliber ammunition on Ukrainian territory [01:06:40].
Risk of Nuclear War
Analysts assess that the risk of global nuclear war is currently at its lowest point during the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine [01:07:14]. It was considered much higher last year [01:07:37].
Conclusion
The prospect of war is real, and Europe must not “sleep through it” [01:44:13]. Europe possesses the economy and capital base to counter Russia’s capabilities, but resources need to be optimized for a war effort and acknowledge the physical threat to freedom and lifestyle [01:44:24].