From: mk_thisisit
The prospect of war is considered real, with the head of the National Security Bureau (BBN) stating that if current generations do not go to the front, their children will be next [00:00:17].
The Imminent Threat
The BBN believes that the world as we know it would fall to ruins in the face of World War III [00:00:40]. To avoid such a conflict, Europe has an estimated three years to prepare for confrontation [00:01:23]. The assessment of a possible Russian aggression against Poland and NATO countries is based on Russia’s actions, resources, and historical patterns, rather than individual diplomatic meetings [00:02:26].
Russia’s Military Buildup and Intentions
Russia’s intentions are evidenced by recent actions. Russian Minister of Defense, Shoigu, announced a plan to reform the Russian Armed Forces by 2026, including the establishment of two new armies and fourteen brigades [00:03:18]. Russian planning documents and a decree by Vladimir Putin aim to raise the number of troops to 1.3 million [00:03:52]. These forces, particularly new divisions and armies, are viewed as potentially capable of attacking NATO [00:04:50]. Maintaining such a large army is an extraordinary and massive financial cost for Russia, especially given the state of its public and social services, suggesting war intentions [00:05:23].
Russian Financial Strategies
The Russian Federation’s financial reserves and their management indicate a preparation for prolonged conflict. While Russia had nearly $600 billion in reserves before the aggression in Ukraine, much of it was frozen [01:14:16]. Despite this, Russia’s reserves have increased, and it is actively purchasing gold on international markets [01:15:08]. This strategy is logical from Russia’s perspective because gold increases in value during a crisis, allowing them to gain greater resources for future aggression if the crisis deepens [01:16:30]. This suggests Russia is creating resources and structures for offensive operations [01:17:30].
Poland’s Defensive Buildup
Poland is actively building up its military, aiming to create the largest European land army [00:00:23]. This significant military development positions Poland as a key recipient of military equipment [00:58:34]. The Head of the BBN states that Poland will be the “absolutely largest land army in Europe today” if current large-scale arms purchases are delivered [00:58:42].
NATO and Collective Defense
An attack on any country on NATO’s eastern flank, particularly the Baltic states, would critically impact the Polish state and security [00:07:31]. From this perspective, an attack on one is considered an attack on the entire eastern flank, including Poland [00:08:14]. The North Atlantic Alliance must remain united, and the durability and credibility of Article Five are crucial [00:08:24].
Debates on Article 5
Public debate in Poland, sometimes questioning Article Five, is considered potentially harmful [00:09:30]. Those with access to real planning documents, such as military committees and commanders, understand the detailed, complex nature of regional allied plans, which are inaccessible to most public commentators [01:10:19]. The experience of a missile falling on Polish territory, killing two citizens, demonstrated the immediate allied reaction and the strength of the alliance’s commitments [01:12:33]. The BBN head emphasizes that Europe’s collective defense, including its eastern flank, is a defense of “our civilization, our way of life” [01:13:53].
Europe’s Readiness and Funding
The current pace of preparation in Western European countries is considered too slow [01:41:53]. While discussions initiated by leaders like Macron about strategic ambiguity are needed, more needs to be done for Europe’s overall defense [01:42:01]. A significant disparity exists, with 80% of NATO defense spending coming from outside EU countries [01:43:03]. The proposal of 3% of GDP spending on defense is vital, with Lithuania already declaring its intent to join next year [01:43:18]. This level of spending, similar to Cold War times, is indispensable to avoid war [01:43:43].
Arms Industry and Production
Europe faces huge shortages in ammunition production capacity [01:16:05]. The European Commission’s allocation of €500 million for the arms industry is deemed “ridiculously small” and “scandalously small” [01:19:18]. In comparison, Poland’s previous government allocated 2 billion zlotys (comparable to €500 million) solely for its national ammunition reserve [01:19:39]. The BBN head stresses that the industry needs constant, large orders to scale up, and Western leaders are not adequately placing these orders [01:22:30]. Poland has the potential to produce advanced ammunition, guided ammunition, and unmanned aerial vehicles [01:24:12].
Societal Preparedness
The BBN head advocates for a broad public debate on compulsory military service in Poland [03:00:27]. He suggests a mandatory civic or public service to instill a sense of civic duty beyond consumerism [03:09:09]. He addresses the common concern of fleeing the country in case of war, noting that such an act would become “significantly more difficult” [03:22:23] and that those with families and responsibilities are more likely to be ready for the conversation about defense [03:31:17].
He acknowledges the historical negative perception of military service in Poland due to its Soviet-era past but emphasizes that today’s army is a place for professional and personal development, requiring a minority for direct combat roles, while many roles are in logistics, planning, advanced weapon service, computerization, and cyber combat, far from the front line [03:34:09]. He also clarifies that individuals with sexual preferences other than heterosexual have a place in the army, citing examples of homosexuals serving in special forces [03:41:28].
Regarding the idea of escaping the country, he states that wartime services would have “much more important tasks” than tracking down individual citizens abroad [03:37:35]. He cautions that if World War III breaks out, the idea of peace remaining in places like Spain is “naivety” [03:39:40].
Geopolitical Landscape
United States and Europe
The visit of the Polish Prime Minister and President to the White House aimed to demonstrate continuity in policy towards the U.S. [00:59:11]. The BBN head believes a potential victory by Donald Trump would not necessarily weaken Europe’s chances against Russia [01:00:09]. On the contrary, Trump’s rhetoric has had a “mobilizing effect,” making more European countries feel responsible for their security and strengthening their armed forces [01:00:15].
China’s Influence
The growing influence of China in Asia and tensions in Taiwan pose a challenge for the U.S., potentially fragmenting its focus beyond the Russian-Ukrainian conflict [01:11:12]. However, Europe remains the largest trading partner for the U.S. in terms of exchange and exports [01:02:49]. Protecting this market and the economic bond is crucial for the American economy [01:03:15].
Sending Troops to Ukraine
While some leaders, like Macron, have discussed the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, no such decisions have been made [01:05:01]. The purpose of supporting Ukraine should be to win the war “without engaging our soldiers” [01:05:28]. Sending troops would signify exhausting all other support possibilities, which is currently not the case [01:05:47]. Setting “red lines” is a mistake; all options should remain on the table [01:06:19]. The priority is to provide Ukraine with necessary aid, such as long-range missiles and increased production of Soviet-caliber ammunition [01:06:40].
Nuclear Risk
According to analysts and analytical documents, the risk of a global nuclear war or the use of nuclear factors is currently the lowest it has been throughout Russia’s aggression against Ukraine [01:07:14].
Personal Reflections of the Head of the National Security Bureau
The BBN head, a doctor and lawyer by training, believes his background provides a unique perspective. He states that his medical background, particularly as a military doctor, instilled a “highest expected respect for human life” and an understanding of the army at an executive, soldier-level, where responsibility for decisions is tangible [01:49:50].
He shared a personal story about pursuing a law degree after witnessing what he deemed “futile therapy” in a critical medical case, aiming to understand the legal aspects of limiting such treatment [01:45:51]. His research led to a protocol for limiting futile therapy in intensive care units, which is now widely used in Poland [01:48:00].
He also holds several patents for devices, including industrial disinfection devices and rescue glasses for telemedicine, which were developed based on practical observations and earlier experiences with intellectual property law [02:24:00]. His path to Oxford was also due to a unique medical case involving a military pilot who suffered high-altitude decompression sickness, where the BBN head performed an unconventional, life-saving hyperbaric treatment [01:29:08]. This case was the first in the world to successfully treat high-altitude decompression sickness confirmed by CT using extracorporeal circulation and hyperbaric therapy [01:42:31].
Reflecting on his role, he emphasizes the importance of institutional continuity and ensuring that experiences from major crises lead to legislative initiatives and planning documents [01:47:50]. He notes a lack of experience in top command regarding transition from peacetime to wartime scenarios among current leaders [01:48:28]. These exercises, including mobilization of the economy and citizens, are crucial [01:49:27].
He stresses that a country’s defense industry must focus on changing the “3 to 1 ratio” in military science (the aggressor needing a 3:1 advantage), by increasing soldier survivability and strike capability through technologies like unmanned platforms, proper fortification, and situational awareness [01:51:01]. He also highlights that the National Security Strategy, being a high-level document, must address broader security issues like energy, demographics, and cyber domains, recognizing the strategic underestimation in previous decades [01:54:02]. He expresses strong belief in Poland’s “incredible potential” and “human capital,” calling it the country’s biggest problem that its value is not fully recognized [01:50:01].
The most difficult moment in his role as BBN head was when Poland expected two Russian missiles to fall on its territory, leading to two Polish citizens’ deaths [01:51:53]. Another dangerous period was the deployment of the Wagner group in Belarus and helicopter intrusions into Polish airspace [01:52:36]. Despite challenges, he feels “very fulfilled” by initiating key projects like military command system reform and a new National Security Strategy [01:53:57].