From: jimruttshow8596
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is being closely observed for its impact on global geopolitics, particularly concerning China and Taiwan. The events may influence China’s strategic calculations regarding its future actions and its relationship with Western economies [00:52:08].
China’s Takeaways from the Conflict
From China’s perspective, a significant lesson learned from the conflict is the strong benefit of disentangling from Western economies [00:52:47]. This disentanglement is perceived to offer political freedom of action [00:52:56]. This pursuit of economic independence could lead to a multi-decade policy where China attempts to form new partnerships directly, bypassing existing global institutions [00:53:15]. These new partnerships would involve African and Asian countries, and crucially, Russia, to secure raw resources and markets necessary to sustain China’s industrial base [00:53:24].
The Taiwan Question
The “Taiwan question” is domestically important for China, serving as a basic plank of the Communist Party’s legitimacy [00:53:06]. The pursuit of a global neo-colonial empire might seem disproportionate for the goal of retaking a “small, stubborn island,” but such political paradoxes are common in human history [00:53:36].
However, the perceived underperformance of the Russian military in Ukraine and the strong, networked economic response from the West could lead to China reassessing its immediate intentions towards Taiwan [00:54:39], [00:54:55]. The severe penalties and costs inflicted through network economic attacks, even if they don’t stop the current hot war, could act as a deterrent for future aggressive warfare [00:51:32].
Conversely, if Russia achieves territorial gains in Ukraine, other countries might interpret this as a challenge to learn how to fight such wars better, aiming to minimize costs, find the right moment, and design their economies to be more robust against economic network attacks [00:52:10].
Overall, the conflict’s implications for China likely include a reinforced desire for economic self-sufficiency and a strategic re-evaluation of the optimal timing and method for addressing the Taiwan issue [00:54:41].