History of societal crises

From: jimruttshow8596

Neil Howe, managing director of demography for Hedgeye, and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Global Aging Institute, discusses his work on generational cycles and their impact on historical dynamics of societies and collapse, particularly in his book The Fourth Turning Is Here [01:00:00]. This work builds on his previous books, Generations (co-authored with William Strauss) and The Fourth Turning [01:28:00].

Understanding Time: Chaotic, Cyclical, and Linear

Humans have understood time in three primary ways:

• Chaotic: This perspective, often associated with a child’s intuition or a Buddhist master’s transcendence, views time as a “whirligig succession of events meaning nothing” [03:07:00]. However, very few societies have embraced this view due to the inherent uncertainty [03:34:00]. Even in Buddhism, the concept of karma introduces an order to time [03:48:00].
• Cyclical: The most common view since the beginning of recorded history, it stems from observing repeating natural and human events like birth, death, harvesting, and daily rhythms [04:08:00]. In premodern schemas, the ideal was to repeat great deeds of the past, often laid down by a “first God” [04:40:00]. Ancient societies held enormous respect for the cycles of time, particularly astral cycles [05:31:00].
• Linear: This view, where time is seen as progress, gained prominence with the rise of certain civilizations like ancient Rome and Athens, but definitively broke with cyclical time with the birth of Western monotheisms (Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, Islam) [06:04:00]. These religions introduced the idea of a world created out of nothing, with a beginning and a destined end, leading to a linear progression through trials and tribulations [07:11:00]. By the 18th century, this became translated into a secular realm, where progress was expected to lead to advances in science and even human immortality [08:06:00]. The Victorian era solidified the belief in secular progress [08:49:00].

Paradoxically, a society that strongly believes in linear progress can actually give rise to social cycles [10:25:00]. This occurs because different age groups and cohorts experience events differently, leading to “standing waves” built on top of linear time [11:03:00].

The Saeculum and Generational Cycles

The core concept of this cyclical history is the saeculum [24:42:00].

Definition and Periodicity

A saeculum corresponds to a long human life, roughly 80 to 90 years [24:49:00]. The periodicity of these long cycles is governed by the length of human life’s four phases [25:49:00]. Anglo-American history consistently shows civic cataclysms approximately every 80 to 90 years [26:06:00]. Examples include:

• Late 17th century: Glorious Revolution, Bacon’s Rebellion, King Philip’s War [26:30:00].
• A lifetime later: The American Revolution [26:58:00].
• Another lifetime later: The Civil War [27:01:00].
• Another lifetime later: The Great Depression and World War II [27:03:00].
• Present day: The current societal crisis [27:08:00].

Four Seasons/Turnings

A saeculum is divided into four “seasons” or “turnings” [29:07:00]:

1. First Turning (High / Spring): A period of strong community focus, institution-building, infrastructure development, and conformity [32:10:00]. This typically follows a crisis, with a high supply of and demand for order [32:25:00]. Post-World War II America (1946-1964) is an example, characterized by increasing equality of income and wealth [32:51:00] [40:51:00].
2. Second Turning (Awakening / Summer): Roughly halfway between civic upheavals, this involves the reconstruction of the “inner world” – culture, religion, manners, morals, and values [27:41:00]. Society continues to supply order, but demand for it wanes, leading to social chaos and a focus on individualization [38:46:00]. The American Awakenings (First Great Awakening, Second, Third, and the late 1960s-1970s as Fourth or Fifth) are examples [27:56:00]. The 1964-1984 period marks this turning [41:03:00].
3. Third Turning (Unraveling / Autumn): Follows the Awakening, characterized by individualism triumphing, and institutions being discredited and weakened [36:10:00]. The supply of order is low, and the demand for order is also low [39:16:00]. This era sees “weak Civic Authority” and a pervasive cultural emphasis on “me, myself, and I” [37:35:00]. Historical examples include the Roaring 90s, the Roaring 20s, the 1850s, and the 1760s [37:43:00]. The 1984-2008 period is the most recent unraveling [41:28:00].
4. Fourth Turning (Crisis / Winter): Historically, these periods of unraveling always lead to crises where the community must be remade [38:10:00]. Society delivers little order, but the demand for order rises sharply [39:40:00]. This is the current period, starting in 2008 and expected to last until the early 2030s [41:44:00].

Mechanism: The Diagonal of Generations

Generational change is the core mechanism driving these cycles [11:48:00]. History can be visualized with age on the y-axis and time on the x-axis; individuals live a “diagonal line” as they age over time [14:39:00]. A generation is a bundle of these diagonal lines [14:55:00]. A single event (a vertical line) impacts different generations differently based on their age and life stage, shaping their collective personality and role in history [15:00:00].

Generations are defined by three factors: age location, history (the period they occupied as children and came into adulthood), and values/beliefs/behaviors [16:23:00] [19:09:00].

Archetypes of Generations

The theory identifies four archetypes of generations, shaped by the historical turning in which they come of age:

• Hero (Civic): Born during a crisis and raised during a high. They are often protected as children and become team-oriented, community-focused, and risk-averse [23:22:00]. Examples include the GI Generation (born around World War I, came of age during Great Depression/WWII) and Millennials (born during the Unraveling, came of age during the current Crisis) [16:39:00] [23:36:00]. They tend to be system-loyal and trusting after saving their country [01:22:07].
• Artist (Silent): Children of a crisis, oversocialized, and differential as young adults [44:57:00]. They are often known for contributions to the arts and ornamentation of society [45:51:00]. The Silent Generation is an example [16:57:00].
• Prophet (Boomer): Born after a crisis and raised during a high. They grow up in peace and prosperity, detesting the conformity and groupthink of the preceding High [33:00:00]. They often become idealists and iconoclasts, wanting to pull down the system and individualize society [23:34:00] [34:39:00]. Baby Boomers are a prime example [17:29:00].
• Nomad (Gen X): Children of an Awakening. They often have a pragmatic, cynical reputation as survivors and individualists [44:42:00]. They are known for best guaranteeing the survival of societies in moments of chaos [46:03:00]. Generation X is the current example [18:21:00].

The Fourth Turning: Societal Crises

The current period, from 2008 through the early 2030s, is identified as a Fourth Turning, a period of crisis [41:44:00].

Characteristics of a Crisis

• Pessimism and Danger: Fourth turnings are marked by a sense of profound pessimism, danger, risk, and uncertainty [59:47:00].
• Sharply Rising Partisanship: Historical crises coincide with periods of intense partisan division. This is seen today, similar to the 1930s when American politics became a “bifurcated choice” between radical left and radical right [01:00:39]. People lose faith in the middle ground [01:01:18].
• Weak Civic Authority: Citizens feel “radicalized, emancipated, individualized” [01:02:03]. Distrust in institutions leads to paralysis and sclerosis [01:06:45].
• Zero-Sum Conflict: Political differences now outrank other differences like income, religion, or race, leading to active dislike between opposing political groups [01:03:38]. There’s a growing belief that “my gain has to be your loss” [01:19:42].
• Acceptance of Violence: The share of Americans who believe violent action against the government is never justified has fallen significantly (from 90% to 62% since the 1990s) [01:04:22]. Surveys increasingly show about half the public believes a civil war is imminent [01:17:05].

Catalysts

A Fourth Turning often has a “precursor” during the preceding Unraveling, offering a brief moment of community integration that foreshadows the crisis [00:56:13]. For the current Fourth Turning, 9/11 served as this precursor [00:56:44].

The actual crisis “catalyst” for the current Fourth Turning was the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 [00:59:00]. This parallels the Black Thursday stock market crash of 1929 that began the last Fourth Turning [00:59:04].

Internal vs. External Conflict

Fourth Turnings involve organized conflict [01:08:40]. All total wars in Anglo-American history have occurred during Fourth Turnings, and every Fourth Turning has featured a total war [01:08:47]. The nature of this conflict—whether primarily internal (like the Civil War) or external (like World War II)—often remains undecided until late in the turning [01:13:00].

In internal conflicts, the weaker side often invites foreign allies, as seen with the Patriots seeking aid from France during the American Revolution [01:29:16], or the Confederacy seeking support from France and England during the Civil War [01:29:57].

A dire civil conflict in the U.S. could lead to a world war where the U.S. is not a major participant, potentially resulting in parts of the country being occupied by foreign powers [01:31:39]. Historically, some Fourth Turnings have very negative outcomes, such as Russia’s experience from 1914 to 1945, which saw over 20% of its population lost [01:32:04].

Contemporary Manifestations of Crisis

• Weakened Families: Families are weak in terms of overall authority and role in people’s lives. However, child nurture strengthened during the Third Turning, with Millennials experiencing more protection [00:48:00]. In the current crisis, families are strengthening, indicated by a huge growth in multi-generational living, with nearly 50% of Americans under age 30 living with family [00:48:47]. This stems from Millennials’ economic struggles and their strong emotional closeness with Boomer parents, a paradox compared to Boomers’ distance from their own GI Generation parents [00:49:29].
• Gender Roles: While popular press suggests gender roles are contracting, they are predicted to widen again [00:52:40]. Millennials, particularly women, express frustration with men’s lack of ambition, leading to a growing gender divide [00:53:28]. Some Millennials are moving towards explicitly more traditional, though chosen, roles (“Trad movement”) [00:54:52]. The idea of “efficient and useful division of labor” is favorable to community-oriented Millennials [00:55:14].
• Rise of Populism and Authoritarianism: Globally, authoritarian governments have risen since 2008, mirroring trends after 1929 [01:04:55].
• Decline in Global Trade: Global trade as a share of global GDP has been declining since its peak in 2007 [01:05:21].
• Distrust in Democracy: Millennials are less wedded to democracy and less optimistic about its efficacy compared to older generations at the same age [01:05:34]. They view democratic institutions as avoiding problem-solving, leading to a sense of “sclerosis” and radicalization [01:06:10].

The New Spring: After the Crisis

While Fourth Turnings can be dire, they are not necessarily “horrible accidents” [01:24:05]. They are part of a natural pattern, like forests needing fires, to rejuvenate public institutions and civic life [01:25:24].

At the end of a Fourth Turning, two new generations are socialized to prioritize sacrifice for the community, leading to a “golden age” immediately after the crisis [01:32:40]. This era sees a profound shift:

• From Individualism to Community: The overarching change is a move towards a more community-centric world [01:33:28].
• From Privilege to Equality: These periods are characterized by huge increases in income and wealth equality [01:33:37]. The post-WWII “High” saw strong unions, growing middle-class wages, and increased upward mobility [01:34:51].
• From Defiance to Authority: Social authority becomes much more important, with people giving and following orders more readily, reducing coordination issues [01:34:15].
• From Deferral to Permanence: Problems are resolved rather than deferred, and there is significant investment in the future [01:36:08]. Major, durable reforms in government structure are enacted only during times of crisis, not peace and prosperity [01:36:35]. Examples include the U.S. Constitution following the post-Revolutionary crisis and the Social Security Act during the Great Depression [01:37:16].
• From Irony to Convention: The culture shifts back towards convention, providing something for the next “Prophet” generation to eventually rebel against [01:38:17].