From: jimruttshow8596
Clio Dynamics, a science of history, seeks to understand the historical dynamics of human societies with a scientific method [00:02:16]. A key motivation for this field is to understand why large-scale societies, despite being capable of providing well-being, often run into “end times” characterized by social dysfunction and political disintegration [00:03:31]. This is akin to seeking a “science of social health” to ensure societal well-being [00:04:17].
Clio Dynamics distinguishes itself from earlier theories of history (like the “great man theory,” “social forces,” or “environmental determinism”) by being an integrative science [00:06:56]. It considers multiple interacting mechanisms—economic, political, climatic, and even the influence of individuals—and rigorously tests theories against empirical data to determine which processes matter for understanding and prediction [00:07:02].
Key Economic Drivers of Disintegration
Analysis of extensive historical databases, including “Sashat” and “Crisis DB,” reveals two ubiquitously observed factors preceding periods of social dysfunction and political disintegration: popular immiseration and elite overproduction [00:15:39].
Popular Immiseration
Popular immiseration refers to the decline in the economic well-being of the general population [00:11:41].
Measuring Well-being
- Average Stature: One “reliable and accurate proxy” for biological well-being is the average height of a population [00:11:50]. While individual height is genetic, population average height reflects economic conditions [00:12:11]. Historical skeletal data from Europe over two thousand years show a decline in average height during pre-crisis periods, indicating that the population is “not doing so greatly” [00:12:54]. In the United States, average height for all racial and gender groups has declined in the last 20-30 years, a surprising “Malthusian factor” in a supposedly post-Malthusian world [00:14:02].
- Relative Wage: To accurately compare wages over time, a “relative wage” metric is used, which is nominal wage divided by nominal GDP per capita [00:20:53]. This method avoids the complexities of inflation adjustments, which can be misleading due to different consumption baskets for different wealth levels [00:20:20].
- Until the late 1970s, median wages in the US increased in parallel with GDP per capita [00:21:50]. However, after the 1970s, worker productivity continued to rise, but compensation stagnated or declined [00:22:18].
- This divergence creates a “wealth pump,” which “takes from the poor and gives it to the rich” [00:22:45]. The declining relative wage indicates that workers have stopped sharing in general prosperity, with that prosperity being redirected to economic elites [00:22:57].
- Historically, mechanisms driving the wealth pump varied; for instance, in the Middle Ages, population growth led to too many workers for too few jobs, depressing wages and increasing rents, thus diverting a higher proportion of GDP to elites [00:23:22]. In the US, the mechanism was different, but the general principle is the same: ruling elites tend to reconfigure the economy for their own benefit during periods of internal peace [00:23:58].
Consequences of Immiseration
Popular immiseration is a major driver of instability because “as people see that they are losing ground in the economy, that increases the discontent” [00:24:37]. This discontent creates “mass mobilization potential” as people can be “mobilized by political entrepreneurs for all kinds of things like rebellions and political action against the ruling regime” [00:24:54].
Moreover, people’s expectations of well-being are relative, not absolute [00:25:50]. Seeing a small proportion of the population doing well while one loses ground, and especially comparing one’s current well-being to that of their parents’ generation, fuels discontent [00:26:17]. For instance, a median US worker now has to work 40% more to afford a house compared to 40 years ago [00:28:04]. The cost of higher education, a path to escape precarity, has also drastically increased; putting a child through college costs nearly four times as much in terms of parental work hours today than in the 1970s [00:28:34].
Elite Overproduction
Elite overproduction occurs when the number of people aspiring to positions of social power (elites) “greatly overcome[s] the number of chairs” available [00:17:30].
The Wealth Pump and Elite Growth
The “wealth pump” not only creates popular immiseration but also contributes to elite overproduction [00:42:48]. In the US over the past 40 years, the number of deca-millionaires (those with over $10 million in inflation-adjusted wealth) increased tenfold, while the general population grew by only 40% [00:42:51]. While not all wealthy individuals seek political office, an exponential increase in their numbers means more will [00:44:01].
Definition of Elites and Aspirant Elites
Elites are defined as a “small proportion of the population who concentrate Social Power in their hands” [00:36:30]. This power can be military, economic, political/administrative, or ideological [00:37:28]. In democratic capitalist societies, governing elites are typically a coalition of economic and administrative/political elites, with economic elites being dominant in the US, making it a “plutocracy” [00:37:57]. The social pyramid has no sharp boundary, ranging from “super elites” to the top 10% in wealth [00:37:58].
The increased wealth at the top means more people “aspire for such positions” [00:44:37]. Since the number of elite positions (e.g., senatorial seats, presidency) remains constant, the number of “frustrated” elite aspirants “blows up enormously” [00:44:40].
Consequences of Elite Overproduction
Excessive competition among elites becomes “disruptive and dysfunctional” [00:17:40]. As the number of elite aspirants far exceeds available positions, competition leads to the undermining of social norms and rules governing the political process [00:17:55]. This can lead to chaotic situations and eventually civil war [00:19:08]. The 2016 US Republican primaries, with 17 major candidates for president, is cited as an example of this “game of musical chairs” in action, where rules began to be broken [00:18:42].
The drive to escape precarity also pushes people to seek credentials like advanced degrees, such as law degrees [00:45:13]. This has led to an overproduction of lawyers in the US, with three times more lawyers trained than available positions [00:46:01]. This results in a bimodal salary distribution for law graduates: a quarter earn high salaries, while the majority are “trapped” with low salaries and significant debt [00:46:16].
These “frustrated elite aspirants” — intelligent, ambitious, well-educated, and well-connected individuals — become “counter-elites” [00:47:06]. They have a “huge incentive” to use their skills to “overthrow the governing regime” [00:47:19]. Historical examples include Lenin, Castro, and Robespierre, all lawyers [00:47:32]. Counter-elites provide the organization needed to mobilize popular discontent into revolutionary movements [00:48:43].
The combination of mass popular discontent (fuel) and organized counter-elites (igniters) creates an “explosive mixture” [00:48:53]. The outcomes of such instabilities tend to follow a power law distribution, meaning “big outcomes are a lot more likely than you’d think” [00:49:38].
Mitigating Societal Decline
Addressing these deeply rooted economic issues is crucial for preventing societal decline and political disintegration.
Short-Term and Long-Term Solutions
- Historical Example (UK Chartism): The British Empire avoided the 1848 revolutions despite declining real wages and growing GDP not trickling down to workers [01:03:33].
- Short-term: Britain was able to mitigate the crisis by shipping “millions of surplus workers” to colonies like Australia and North America, reducing labor oversupply and reversing wage decline [01:04:31]. They also sent “huge numbers of surplus elites” to positions within the Empire [01:04:51].
- Long-term: British elites ultimately “shut down the wealth pump” by expanding suffrage to make the system more democratic, and by giving workers formal power to organize and bargain [01:05:10]. They also abolished the “Corn Laws,” which had artificially inflated food prices for the benefit of landlords, thus directly increasing the real wages of workers [01:05:31].
- Modern Application: While direct historical parallels like the British Empire’s solutions are not applicable, the general guidance is to “shut down the wealth pump” [01:06:39]. This will rebalance the economy and reduce the “top-heavy” nature of the social pyramid over time [01:06:48].
- Specific Economic Actions:
- Increase Minimum Wage: Raising the minimum wage is suggested as an “obvious thing to do” in the short term, as economic studies generally agree it does not hurt employment [01:07:07].
- Redistribution of Wealth: The discussion touches on the historical precedent of high top tax rates in the US (e.g., 90% until 1964, 70% in the 70s), which have since fallen significantly [01:08:42]. Reconfiguring the economy to reduce wealth concentration and ensure broader prosperity is implied as a long-term strategy.
- Employing Frustrated Elites: As a short-term measure to reduce desperation among “frustrated elite aspirants,” particularly those with advanced degrees, it is suggested to employ them (e.g., historians to collect data for Clio Dynamics) [01:08:07].
While radical change could theoretically lead to a better system, the profound human misery caused by violent revolutions and state collapses is emphasized [01:10:16]. Many violent revolutions simply exchange one “team of scoundrels” for another [01:10:54]. Peaceful revolutions, such as the Glorious Revolution in England or the reforms of the US Progressive Era and New Deal, are preferable as they resulted in needed reforms without extreme bloodshed [01:11:11]. The memory of past civil wars (e.g., English Civil War, American Civil War) played a crucial role in elites taking steps to avoid the worst outcomes in subsequent crises [01:12:33].