From: jameskerlindsay
Turkey has long been a significant player in international relations, with its geopolitical strategies evolving considerably over time. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the country has sought to reestablish its standing among Muslim-majority states and influence critical global issues [00:00:08]. This marks a notable shift from its earlier secular and Western-oriented foreign policy [00:04:58].
Historical Orientation and Early Alliances
Historically, Turkey has had a deep connection with the Muslim faith, stemming from Turkic tribes’ conversion to Islam in the 11th century [00:02:54]. The Ottoman Empire, which emerged from these tribes, became a dominant force in the Islamic world, with its Sultan also holding the title of Caliph, signifying leadership of the faith [00:03:41].
Following its defeat in the First World War, the Ottoman Empire was replaced by the Republic of Turkey under General Mustafa Kemal (Atatürk) [00:04:01]. Atatürk abolished the Caliphate and implemented a strict separation of religion and state, severing Turkey’s ties to the Middle East and the broader Islamic world [00:04:36]. The country’s priority shifted to a Western and European orientation [00:04:58].
In line with this, Turkey joined NATO in 1952 [00:05:02] and signed an association agreement with the European Economic Community (forerunner of the EU) ten years later [00:05:05]. Turkey also became the first Muslim-majority state to recognize Israel, forging a close defense and security alliance with the country [00:05:13]. This historical orientation towards Europe shaped its early geopolitical alliances.
Erdoğan’s Reorientation and Assertive Diplomacy
At the turn of the millennium, amidst economic and political turmoil, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came to power in 2002 [00:05:31]. Erdoğan signaled a significant reorientation of Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy [00:06:33].
Domestic and Foreign Policy Shifts
Domestically, Erdoğan began rolling back restrictions on religion in public life and openly highlighted his own religious faith [00:06:38]. He ended the ban on headscarves in government offices and reduced the military’s power, which had previously guarded Turkey’s secularism [00:06:48].
Concurrently, Turkey’s foreign policy was steadily reoriented [00:07:00]. While maintaining ties to NATO and its quest to join the European Union [00:07:04], Turkey significantly increased its profile across the Middle East and the broader Muslim world [00:07:09]. This involved massively expanding its diplomatic presence [00:07:14] and considerably increasing overseas aid through the Directorate of Religious Affairs, which built mosques, schools, and promoted Islamic cultural programs [00:07:18].
Turkey also became a more active military and security actor, intervening in Libya, Syria, and Iraq, and playing a role in Somalia [00:07:35]. It gained influence within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), with a Turkish Secretary General leading the body from 2005 to 2013, and Turkey holding its chairmanship from 2016 to 2019 [00:07:52].
Assertive Positions and Diplomatic Shifts
Erdoğan has become increasingly outspoken on issues that resonate with many ordinary Muslims [00:08:10]. During the Arab Spring in 2010, he supported efforts to overthrow authoritarian secular regimes in Egypt and Syria, publicly backing Islamist opposition groups [00:08:19]. This stance significantly undermined Ankara’s relationship with Cairo and Damascus [00:08:35].
Perhaps most significantly, the Turkish President became a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause [00:08:39]. Turkey’s long-standing relationship with Israel collapsed in 2010 after an Israeli raid on a Turkish aid ship to Gaza [00:08:46]. Erdoğan’s continued support for Palestinians gained favor, especially as more Arab states normalized relations with Israel [00:08:58]. The relationship with Israel has worsened further since the war in Gaza, with Erdoğan publicly sympathizing with Hamas and Hezbollah and accusing Israel of genocide [00:09:06]. Against this backdrop, he has called for an Islamic alliance against Israel [00:09:25].
Strengths Supporting Leadership Ambitions
Turkey’s current geopolitical standing is supported by several factors:
- Demographics and Economy: It is the world’s sixth most populous Muslim-majority state and the third-largest economically with an annual GDP of $1 trillion [00:09:44].
- Military Power: Turkey’s military spending is second only to Saudi Arabia among Muslim-majority states [00:10:04].
- Soft Power: Turkey’s soft power influence is growing through Turkish Airlines, which has made Istanbul the world’s most connected airport [00:10:19]. Turkish television programs have a following across many Muslim countries, and its tourist market attracts around 45 million visitors annually [00:10:30]. Turkish history and culture are also strongly promoted internationally [00:10:44].
All these factors, combined with Erdoğan’s outspoken positions, suggest Turkey’s standing, especially in the Muslim world, is growing dramatically [00:10:48].
Challenges and Complex Alliances
Despite its growing influence, Turkey faces significant challenges to its leadership ambitions and its geopolitical strategies are often seen as complex or contradictory.
Distrust in the Arab World
Turkey remains deeply distrusted in large parts of the Arab world [00:11:06]. The historical experience of 300 years of Turkish Ottoman colonial rule in the Middle East contributes to this suspicion [00:11:12]. Many Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, regard Turkey and its leader with deep suspicion [00:11:17]. While Turkey is actively trying to rebuild ties with Damascus and Cairo and recently attended an Arab League meeting for the first time in 13 years, past behavior and perceived shifts in alliances are not easily forgotten [00:11:34].
Multi-Vectored Foreign Policy
Many observers are suspicious of Turkey’s strategy to maintain ties with disparate geopolitical blocs simultaneously [00:11:54].
- Western Alliance: Turkey maintains a military alliance with the West through NATO [00:12:01].
- Emerging Blocs: At the same time, it is discussing joining BRICS, a group seeking to undermine Western dominance [00:12:05].
- Turkic World: Turkey aims to lead the Turkic states [00:12:13].
- Russia: Concurrently, it is “cozying up” to Russia, a power that vies for supremacy in Central Asia [00:12:18].
While supporters argue these multilateral relationships strengthen Turkey’s global standing, critics view this as proof of Erdoğan’s inability to be loyal to any single group [00:12:22], which is not typically seen as a quality of a leader [00:12:32]. This complex diplomatic approach creates tensions.
Competition from Other Muslim-Majority States
Turkey faces strong competition from other influential states in the Muslim world [00:12:37].
- Saudi Arabia: Remains incredibly influential as the birthplace of Islam and home to its holiest sites [00:12:42].
- Egypt: A demographic and cultural powerhouse [00:12:51].
- Indonesia and Pakistan: The world’s most populous Muslim states [00:12:55].
- Gulf States: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have emerged as hugely influential actors, supported by considerable oil wealth [00:13:01].
- Iran: Remains the preeminent actor for many Shia Muslims [00:13:11].
In conclusion, while Turkey has undoubtedly reestablished its standing in the Muslim world under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and taken a strong stance on Israel, it is unlikely to become the overarching leader due to significant opposition and numerous alternative challengers [00:13:16]. Instead, Turkey is better understood as one influential country among many within this large and diverse group of states [00:13:30].