From: jameskerlindsay
In October 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan initiated a brief diplomatic crisis by announcing that ambassadors from ten Western countries, including the United States, France, and Germany, were no longer welcome in Turkey [00:00:00]. While a temporary solution was quickly found, the incident highlighted a deeper issue that could signal the end of Turkey’s century-long pivot towards Europe and the West [00:00:20].
Historical Orientation and Western Integration
The strategic orientation of countries is shaped by various factors including geographic, ethnic, religious, economic, political, and security considerations [00:00:46]. Although these ties can become fundamental to a state’s identity, they are subject to change, sometimes suddenly after events like a revolution, or through a much slower process [00:00:53]. Turkey serves as a notable example of such a process [00:01:07].
Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, Turkish nationalist forces led by Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk) established the Republic of Turkey [00:02:17]. The new republic embarked on a path of modernization and Europeanization, moving Islam out of the public sphere and introducing the Latin alphabet [00:02:39].
In 1950, Turkey became a member of the recently established North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the primary Western security body, and joined the Council of Europe, the continent’s leading human rights organization [00:02:52]. A decade later, in 1963, Turkey signed an association agreement with the European Economic Community, which would eventually become the European Union, opening the door for potential membership [00:03:06].
Challenges to European Integration
Despite these affiliations, Turkey’s aspirations for European integration made little progress [00:03:18]. Challenges included:
- Military Coups Several military coups raised questions about Turkey’s commitment to democracy, a key requirement for EU membership [00:03:27].
- Tensions with Greece Growing tensions with Greece, an EU and NATO member, particularly over Cyprus, further complicated relations [00:03:34].
- Perceived Exclusion There was a persistent sense that Turkey, despite its secular nature, was being excluded from what many regarded as a “Christian club,” an impression that intensified with the EU’s post-Cold War expansion to Central and Eastern European countries [00:03:41].
By the late 1990s, relations between Turkey and the European Union were strained [00:04:03]. However, after a breakthrough in relations with Greece, Turkey finally became an EU candidate in 1999 [00:04:09].
The Erdogan Era and Shifting Trajectory
Ironically, the election of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in November 2002, an overtly religious administration, initially propelled Turkey’s path to EU accession [00:04:27]. Erdogan, a former Istanbul mayor previously imprisoned for Islamist sedition, viewed EU membership as a means to expand religious freedom and curb the military’s influence [00:04:47]. This led to progress on resolving the Cyprus issue and implementing political reforms, resulting in Turkey formally opening EU membership discussions in 2005 [00:04:59].
However, Erdogan’s political outlook began to change [00:05:08]. His growing autocratic tendencies led to a rollback of human rights reforms and curtailment of media freedoms [00:05:14]. Key events illustrating this shift include:
- Gezi Park Protests (2013) Massive protests erupted across Turkey, leading to a harsh government crackdown [00:05:21].
- Attempted Coup (2016) Following an attempted military coup, Erdogan blamed a religious opponent in the United States and launched a major purge of suspected opposition members, resulting in tens of thousands of arrests and hundreds of thousands of job terminations [00:05:28].
The Osman Kavala Case and the 2021 Diplomatic Crisis
A significant point of contention stemmed from the case of Osman Kavala, a wealthy Turkish businessman and philanthropist arrested in 2017 [00:05:48]. Charged with attempting to overthrow the government, he was held in pre-trial detention [00:06:01].
In December 2019, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), the principal judicial organ of the Council of Europe, unanimously ruled that Kavala had been deprived of his right to liberty and timely justice, ordering his immediate release [00:06:07]. Despite its obligation as a member of the Council of Europe to adhere to ECHR rulings, Turkey refused to release him [00:06:27].
Consequently, in September 2021, the Council of Europe announced infringement proceedings against Turkey if Kavala was not released by the end of November, a move that could lead to Turkey’s suspension or expulsion from the organization [00:06:36]. This prompted the ambassadors of ten countries, including the United States and France, to sign a joint letter urging the Turkish government to comply with the ECHR ruling, noting that Turkey’s failure undermined democracy and the rule of law [00:06:52].
Furious, Erdogan announced that the ambassadors were no longer welcome in Turkey [00:07:11]. However, amidst pressure on the Turkish lira and speculation of a permanent rupture with key allies, the crisis was quickly defused [00:07:21]. The United States and other countries released a statement affirming their adherence to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which prohibits diplomats from interfering in host states’ internal affairs [00:07:30]. While this could be interpreted as a justification for their initial letter, it provided enough ambiguity for the Turkish government to withdraw its threat, stating it was satisfied the countries had “learned their lesson” [00:07:41].
Deeper Rift and Future Implications
Despite the apparent resolution, the underlying issues persist [00:08:04]. Erdogan’s actions underscored the widening rift between Turkey and its key Western partners [00:08:16]. Concerns have grown over Turkey’s domestic trajectory and its foreign policy, particularly Erdogan’s close relationship with Putin’s Russia [00:08:26]. The West is increasingly portrayed as an opponent rather than an ally [00:08:47].
More fundamentally, the dispute highlights Turkey’s diminishing adherence to the basic rules of the “Western club” [00:08:54]. Compliance with ECHR rulings is a fundamental prerequisite for membership in both the Council of Europe and the European Union [00:09:05]. Many observers believe Turkey has already broken with the West politically [00:09:36].
The decision on a final political separation largely rests with the European Union and the United States [00:09:40].
- Arguments for a break Proponents argue that Turkey can no longer be considered an ally or a country that shares fundamental values. They advocate for ending EU membership talks, suspending or expelling Turkey from the Council of Europe if it fails to comply with obligations, and even removing it from NATO [00:09:55].
- Pragmatist arguments against a complete break Others contend that since EU accession talks have stalled, severing the relationship entirely would worsen the situation [00:10:22]. They fear Ankara would further solidify partnerships with forces like Russia and that such a break could have negative consequences in the Muslim world, reinforcing perceptions of Western opposition to Islam [00:10:38]. It is better, they argue, to keep Turkey within the Western sphere, even if nominally [00:10:59].
- Optimist arguments A third group hopes for Turkey’s eventual return to a pro-European track, advocating for keeping that possibility alive to encourage pro-Western forces in Turkey [00:11:04]. However, many in this camp also question if Turkey has passed the point of no return [00:11:27].
The prevailing view is that despite the problems Turkey presents, it is better to maintain its nominal affiliation with the West than to force a final split [00:11:33]. Nevertheless, continued disregard for ECHR rulings, such as in the Kavala case, will eventually necessitate a definitive decision to protect the integrity of human rights institutions in Europe [00:11:51].
Turkey’s relationship with the West has always been complex, but the past decade has seen unprecedented challenges to its democratic values and human rights norms [00:12:18]. As Turkey pursues an increasingly nationalistic path and builds closer ties with Russia, the central question remains whether the Turkish Republic will finally break with its Western ties, or if the United States and EU will permit such a rupture [00:12:41].