From: jameskerlindsay
On 4 November 2020, while global attention was on the US presidential elections, the Ethiopian government announced a military offensive in Tigray, its northernmost province [00:00:00]. This followed months of tension with the local government, raising concerns that Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous nation, could be sliding into civil war [00:00:12].
Background to Conflict
Ethiopia has a history of conflict [00:00:50]. From 1974 to 1991, it experienced a brutal civil war that contributed to a famine, resulting in over 1.5 million deaths [00:00:53]. Despite hopes for a new era of prosperity, evidenced by a 9% GDP growth in 2018-2019 [00:01:13], and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for resolving a border dispute with Eritrea [00:01:22], the country has never been entirely at peace [00:01:38].
Previous conflicts include:
- A two-year war with Eritrea from 1998 to 2000 [00:01:43].
- A nearly 25-year conflict with ethnic Somali separatists of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, which ended with a peace agreement in 2018 [00:01:47].
- An ongoing half-century separatist conflict in Oromia province, despite a purported peace deal in 2018 [00:02:04]. In early November, the Oromo Liberation Army attacked a village, killing over 54 ethnic Amhara [00:02:15].
- Numerous other cases of unrest across the country [00:02:28].
The fighting in Tigray is particularly concerning due to its potential to escalate into a full-scale civil war [00:02:50].
Ethiopian Demographics and Governance
Ethiopia is located in East Africa, landlocked and bordered by Somalia, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somaliland [00:03:02]. It is the 27th largest UN member state by area (1.1 million square kilometres) and has a population of 115 million, making it Africa’s second most populous country after Nigeria [00:03:20].
The country is ethnically diverse, with over 80 distinct languages [00:04:15]. Key ethnic groups include:
- Oromo: Approximately 35% of the population, centered in Oromia [00:03:38].
- Amhara: Around 27% of Ethiopians, located in the northwest [00:03:52].
- Somalis and Tigrayans: Each represent about 6% of the population, located in the east and north respectively [00:03:59].
Ethiopia, historically known as Abyssinia, maintained independence during the European scramble for Africa and was a founding member of the United Nations in 1945 [00:04:21].
Roots of the Current Crisis
The current tensions are rooted in the civil war of the 1970s and 80s [00:04:49]. The story began with the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie by a Marxist military faction on 12 September 1974, leading to a civil war against various opposition movements [00:05:02].
Rise of the TPLF and Federal Reorganization
The most significant opposition movement was the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which allied with other anti-government forces, including the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) [00:05:22]. By May 1991, TPLF-led rebel forces seized the capital, Addis Ababa, overthrowing the regime [00:05:48].
This led to several key changes:
- Eritrea gained independence [00:06:03].
- Ethiopia was reorganized along federal lines, officially becoming the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia [00:06:12].
- Its new constitution explicitly permitted secession, even outlining a process for constituent parts to become independent [00:06:21].
Although nominally democratic, Ethiopia became a one-party state under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), an alliance that included the TPLF [00:06:34]. Despite Tigrayans representing only 6% of the population, they held dominant roles in the federal government, with Meles Zenawi serving as Prime Minister from 1995 to 2012 [00:06:48].
Shift in Power and Growing Tensions
This dominance changed in 2018 when Abiy Ahmed Ali, an ethnic Oromo, assumed leadership of the EPRDF following major protests [00:07:03]. Tigrayans became increasingly marginalized from the government and military they had long dominated [00:07:13]. Concerns also grew that Abiy’s calls for national unity aimed to undermine the country’s federal structure [00:07:22]. Additionally, Abiy, despite being a reformer, began exhibiting authoritarian tendencies, including harsh measures on freedom of speech [00:07:31].
The breakdown in relations became evident in 2019 when the EPRDF was dissolved and replaced by the Prosperity Party, which the TPLF crucially refused to join [00:07:42].
Escalation to Military Confrontation
The immediate catalyst for the current confrontation was a dispute over national and regional elections [00:08:01].
- Originally scheduled for August 2020, elections were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading the government to extend lawmakers’ mandates [00:08:12].
- The TPLF-controlled government in Tigray rejected this, viewing it as evidence of increasing authoritarianism, and proceeded to hold regional elections in September [00:08:25].
- Following this, relations rapidly deteriorated as neither the federal government nor the Tigray regional administration recognized the other as legitimate [00:08:40].
Escalating disputes included:
- Tigray withdrawing its representatives from federal government institutions in early October [00:08:54].
- The Ethiopian upper house of parliament voting to withhold budget subsidies to Tigray, prompting threats from Tigray to withhold tax receipts [00:09:00].
- The Tigray administration blocking a federal government attempt to reshuffle military leadership in the region [00:09:14].
The most serious incident occurred in early November when a federal military barracks in Tigray was attacked [00:09:27]. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali accused the TPLF of orchestrating the attack to steal equipment [00:09:35]. He declared that “The last red line has been crossed with this morning’s attacks and the federal government is therefore forced into military confrontation” [00:10:00]. The Ethiopian National Defence Forces were ordered to carry out their mission to stabilize the country and region [00:10:09]. Hours later, the Ethiopian government declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray [00:10:22].
Concerns and Implications
The exact situation in Tigray remains unclear as the government has shut down electricity, telephone, and internet connections to the region [00:10:32]. Regional and international observers are concerned that this could spark a full-scale civil war that might even lead to the country’s disintegration [00:10:48].
A key factor making the situation particularly worrying is that Tigray is home to a significant proportion of Ethiopia’s troops and weaponry, and the TPLF maintains its own forces [00:11:00]. This means a direct confrontation between the federal government and Tigray is distinct from other insurgencies Ethiopia has faced [00:11:12].
In the event of escalation, the conflict could have extremely serious consequences:
- Domestic Impact: Dramatic effects in other parts of Ethiopia [00:11:35].
- Regional Instability: Neighboring states like Eritrea may become involved [00:11:45].
- Humanitarian Concerns: Significant refugee outflows into neighboring regions could occur, feeding wider regional instability across the Horn of Africa [00:11:55].
There have been widespread international calls for both sides to show restraint [00:11:28]. The Tigray Crisis marks a far more serious development for Ethiopia than previous conflicts, with the potential to spiral out of control into a full-scale civil war [00:12:14]. The escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Tigray pose a significant threat to peace and security in Africa [00:12:51].