From: jameskerlindsay
The brutal war between Ethiopia and its northern province of Tigray was, for a period, considered the world’s deadliest conflict, largely ignored due to international attention on Ukraine [00:00:00]. Over two years, the conflict saw dramatic shifts in momentum [00:00:14]. A last-minute peace agreement was reached as Ethiopia and its allies were poised for a final military victory, which many feared could lead to a bloodbath [00:00:22].
The Peace Agreement
On November 2, 2022, news emerged from South Africa that representatives of the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had signed a momentous peace agreement [00:00:53]. This agreement, reached after 10 days of intensive negotiations organized by the African Union and chaired by Nigeria’s former president, aimed to “permanently silence the guns” [00:01:06].
The agreement came at a critical time, as the fighting in northern Ethiopia had reportedly cost up to half a million lives and displaced over 3 million people over two years [00:01:22]. The federal Ethiopian government, supported by forces from Eritrea, had gained the upper hand and was preparing for a final offensive [00:01:33]. At the start of the talks, many observers were skeptical, believing Ethiopia was determined to achieve a decisive victory over the TPLF due to deep-seated hatred between the sides [00:01:46].
Background on Ethiopia
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, located in East Africa, spans 1.1 million square kilometers (approximately 430,000 square miles), making it the 26th largest member of the United Nations [00:02:05]. With a population of around 120 million, it is Africa’s second most populous country [00:02:18]. The population comprises almost a hundred different ethnic groups, with the largest being the Oromo (around one-third) and Amhara (around one-quarter), followed by Somalis and Tigrayans (around six percent each) [00:02:26].
Ethiopia is divided into nine autonomous regional states, largely aligned with main ethnic groups [00:02:41]. Tigray is the country’s northernmost region [00:02:46]. Historically known as Abyssinia, Ethiopia was never formally colonized by European powers [00:02:53]. In 1945, it became one of only four African founding members of the United Nations, alongside Egypt, Liberia, and South Africa [00:02:58].
Historical Context of the Conflict
The origins of the recent conflict can be traced back to the 1960s, when northern Ethiopia descended into conflict as Eritrea began its war for independence after being granted to Ethiopia by the UN in 1952 [00:03:08].
Following the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie by a Marxist military coup in 1974, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) allied with other ethno-national rebel groups, including the TPLF, to fight the Soviet-supported regime [00:03:21]. In May 1991, at the end of the Cold War, these forces seized Addis Ababa, overthrowing the military government [00:03:45]. This led to Eritrea’s independence and the reorganization of the rest of Ethiopia as a democratic federation [00:03:55].
Tigrayan Dominance and Abiy Ahmed’s Rise
Despite its multi-ethnic character, Ethiopia quickly became dominated by Tigrayans [00:04:04]. It became a one-party state under the TPLF-dominated Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) [00:04:11]. A subsequent falling out between the TPLF and EPLF over the border in Tigray led to a bitter two-year war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which may have resulted in up to 300,000 deaths [00:04:20].
In 2018, everything changed. Following major protests, Abiy Ahmed Ali, an ethnic Oromo, became the leader of the EPRDF [00:04:36]. He immediately began dismantling Tigrayan power, dissolving the Front in 2019 and forming the ethnically unified Prosperity Party [00:04:47]. The TPLF refused to join, accusing him of increasing authoritarianism and attempting to centralize power [00:04:57]. Tensions also grew when Abiy Ahmed signed a landmark border agreement with Eritrea in 2019, an act for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize [00:05:05].
The Spark of Conflict
The final countdown to war began in March 2020. Due to Covid-19, Ethiopia’s electoral commission postponed general elections planned for August [00:05:20]. The TPLF, viewing this as a power grab, refused to accept the decision and proceeded with holding the vote in Tigray [00:05:33]. By October, Ethiopia was in political crisis, with the federal and Tigrayan governments no longer recognizing each other [00:05:44]. Tigray withdrew from national institutions and refused the appointment of a new commander for the Ethiopian National Defense Forces in the region, leading the federal government to cut funding [00:05:52].
The immediate trigger for the conflict was an attack on a federal military barracks in Tigray [00:06:03]. On November 4, 2020, Abiy Ahmed addressed the nation, accusing the TPLF of raiding the barracks to steal weapons, imposing a six-month state of emergency, and ordering the national army to reassert control over Tigray [00:06:09].
Course of the Conflict
Concerns about the situation were immediate. While Ethiopia had experienced insurgencies before, this conflict was seen as far more serious due to the TPLF’s significant weapons, manpower, and highly capable military commanders [00:06:27]. Abiy Ahmed made it clear he intended to win by force, rejecting mediation offers from African figures [00:06:53].
Initially, his plan seemed to succeed [00:07:04]. Within a month, federal forces seized Mekele, the Tigrayan capital, and installed a new administration [00:07:08]. However, this jubilation was premature [00:07:17]. The TPLF, having retreated from towns, began regrouping in rural areas [00:07:20]. Reports of atrocities emerged across Tigray, with credible allegations that Abiy Ahmed had enlisted support from Eritrea to destroy the TPLF, despite communications being cut off [00:07:27]. Additionally, the neighboring federal state of Amhara, which had a long-standing boundary dispute with Tigray, joined the fight [00:07:43].
By early 2021, the situation in Tigray was dire, with food and medical supplies running short and communications still cut [00:07:54]. International concern grew over the Ethiopian government’s tactics, with some observers calling the siege “a weapon of war” [00:08:05]. An EU regional envoy reported that an Ethiopian official had stated an intention to “wipe out” the Tigrayans [00:08:15].
Turning Points and Negotiations
Events changed dramatically when the Tigrayan Defense Force (TDF), led by senior generals, launched a major counter-offensive [00:08:23]. By July 2021, the TDF had retaken Mekele and much of Tigray [00:08:37]. The TPLF then laid down its demands for peace talks: full withdrawal of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops from Tigray, complete lifting of the siege, and recognition of the TPLF as Tigray’s legitimate government [00:08:43]. As federal troops retreated, Tigrayan forces pushed southwards through Amhara towards Addis Ababa [00:08:58]. Some suggested Ethiopia might face a repeat of 1991, when the TPLF marched into the capital [00:09:07].
However, the war took another unexpected turn when Ethiopia began acquiring combat drones from Turkey, Iran, and China, which had stunning effects [00:09:18]. By early 2022, Tigrayan forces, having reached within 120 kilometers of the capital, were pushed back, and Tigray was again under siege [00:09:35]. The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Ghebreyesus (a Tigrayan), called it the world’s worst health crisis [00:09:44].
With the conflict ongoing for 16 months, international pressure for talks grew [00:09:54]. On March 24, the Ethiopian government announced a unilateral humanitarian ceasefire, which the TPLF soon agreed to [00:10:02]. While the African Union led public settlement efforts, the United States also convened secret talks [00:10:13]. No agreement was reached, and the ceasefire collapsed in August 2022 after five months [00:10:27]. This led to some of the most intense fighting, as Ethiopia and its allies made a final push for victory [00:10:36]. Reports indicated a full Eritrean national mobilization, and major towns in Tigray fell to federal forces [00:10:48]. The UN Secretary-General warned the situation was “spiralling out of control” [00:10:57].
It was at this critical juncture that the African Union announced surprise talks in South Africa [00:11:03]. Despite widespread skepticism, an agreement was reached on November 2, 2022 [00:11:09].
Key Points of the Peace Deal
The peace deal is built around four main points [00:11:21]:
- Territorial Integrity: It confirms Ethiopia’s territorial integrity, with Tigray remaining part of the country [00:11:25].
- Single National Defense Force: Ethiopia will have a single National Defense Force, meaning the TDF will be disarmed and disbanded [00:11:34].
- Constitutional Order in Tigray: The constitutional order will be re-established in Tigray, likely involving new elections [00:11:43]. The TPLF’s continued political force status is implied by its participation in the agreement [00:11:51].
- Humanitarian Aid and Reconstruction: Humanitarian aid will be sent to the region, and reconstruction efforts will begin [00:12:05].
Both the government and the TPLF agreed to promote the peace deal and call on all Ethiopians to support it, using language designed to foster national unity [00:12:11].
Reasons for the Agreement
The outcome represents a clear victory for the Ethiopian government, but it also offers enough to the TPLF to secure its support in the face of final defeat [00:12:27].
The agreement spared the government from a final onslaught and further horrific loss of life [00:12:40]. Additionally, preserving the TPLF, rather than wiping it out, could be more valuable [00:12:55]. Allowing a demilitarized TPLF to remain in political control in the north might be more sensible than imposing a resented new administration after a catastrophic military defeat [00:13:08].
Considerable encouragement and coercion likely occurred behind the scenes [00:13:20]. This may have included promises of reconstruction aid or warnings of serious sanctions, including war crimes investigations, if cooperation failed [00:13:27]. The deal also seems to pave the way for internal arrangements for justice and reconciliation [00:13:46].
International Role and Outlook
The agreement is a remarkable achievement, with special credit due to the African Union and IGAD (the main regional organization), as well as the United States for its important behind-the-scenes role [00:14:00]. Had the talks failed, the situation could have escalated to a horrific extent, potentially even a genocide [00:14:19].
While it cannot be definitively stated that the conflict is over, much depends on the implementation of the agreement [00:14:32]. Skepticism remains about the sides’ ability to reconcile given the deep-seated hatred [00:14:42]. However, after two years of bitter and bloody conflict, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions displaced, Ethiopia appears to be on the path to peace [00:14:50].