Prospects and challenges of Moldova and Romania unification

From: jameskerlindsay

The war in Ukraine has brought attention to Moldova, one of Europe’s least-known countries [00:00:00]. Moldova emerged as an independent state with the collapse of the Soviet Union [00:00:06]. Often considered an “accidental country,” there have long been calls for Moldova to unite with Romania, of which it was once a part [00:00:11].

Romania and Moldova are considered “kin states,” where a single nation is effectively divided into two separate independent and sovereign countries [00:00:49]. While such states may develop distinct national identities over time, the possibility of some form of union often remains a national aspiration, either officially or within wider society [00:01:00].

Geographical and Demographic Overview

Both Romania and Moldova are located in southeast Europe [00:01:24].

• Romania: Covers 240,000 square kilometres (over 90,000 square miles), making it the 81st largest of the 193 UN members [00:01:27]. It has a population of around 19.3 million inhabitants [00:01:52].
• Moldova: Lies on Romania’s eastern border, covering 34,000 square kilometres (13,000 square miles) [00:01:38]. It is about a seventh of Romania’s size and the 135th largest UN member [00:01:46]. Moldova’s population stands at just 2.6 million [00:01:57].

Historical Context

The history of the two countries dates back to medieval principalities like Wallachia and Moldavia [00:02:03].

• By the mid-16th century, they became Ottoman vassal states [00:02:13].
• In 1812, Bessarabia, the eastern part of Moldavia, was ceded to Imperial Russia [00:02:17].
• In 1859, Wallachia and the remaining part of Moldavia merged, eventually forming the Kingdom of Romania in 1881 [00:02:27].
• Bessarabia remained outside Romanian control until it declared independence amidst the Russian Revolution [00:02:35].
• Romania and Bessarabia were reunited at that time [00:02:44].

However, this union was brief and difficult [00:02:49]. Bessarabia was largely ignored by Romania, which focused more on its newly acquired western territories like Transylvania [00:02:54]. The Soviet Union never accepted this annexation [00:03:04]. In June 1940, Moscow retook the region, establishing the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic [00:03:09]. Even after Romania became a Soviet satellite state, Moscow kept the two territories separate [00:03:23]. Soviet authorities actively promoted a separate Moldovan identity to counter pan-Romanian sentiment [00:03:35]. This included emphasizing language differences, reintroducing the Cyrillic script, and bringing in Russian and Ukrainian settlers to change the demographic mix [00:03:42]. Today, Ukrainians and Russians account for about seven and four percent of Moldova’s population, respectively [00:03:54].

With the end of the Cold War, the Republic of Moldova gained independence on December 25, 1991 [00:04:02]. Initial talks of unification were short-lived, as divisions emerged in Moldova between those supporting union and those advocating for a separate Moldovan state [00:04:13].

Romania subsequently aligned with the West, joining NATO in 2004 and the European Union in 2007 [00:04:41]. In contrast, Moldova experienced years of political instability, oscillating between governments favoring closer ties with the European Union and those preferring stronger links to Moscow [00:04:52].

Prospects for Unification Today

From Moldova’s Perspective

Unification seems unlikely from Moldova’s viewpoint [00:05:13].

• Limited Support: While support for unification has grown, polling indicates only 40-45% of Moldovans desire it [00:05:17].
• Distinct Moldovan Identity: A separate Moldovan identity has emerged, despite close ties with Romania [00:05:29].
• Fear of Subordination: There’s a concern that Moldova, being small, would be a minor player in a united Romania, a view shaped by past experiences [00:05:37]. Moldova values its current independence [00:05:51].
• Economic Benefits: While unification might bring economic advantages, few believe it would be a complete solution [00:05:56]. Romania, though wealthier than Moldova, is not rich, with a per capita GDP about a third of the EU average [00:06:04], meaning it couldn’t inject vast sums into reunification [00:06:13].
• Existing Benefits: Many Moldovans already gain the best advantage of any union: Romanian and, by extension, EU citizenship [00:06:23]. Around a quarter of Moldova’s population, including its pro-European president Maia Sandu, holds Romanian nationality, and many already live and work in the European Union [00:06:37].
• Security Dimension: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised security concerns, but this is primarily driving Moldova towards EU integration, not unification with Romania [00:06:50]. Moldova, along with Ukraine and Georgia, has formally applied for European Union membership [00:07:08]. However, NATO membership remains off the agenda, with neutrality enshrined in Moldova’s constitution [00:07:17].

From Romania’s Perspective

While there is some opinion in favor of unification, it is not as popular as often believed, with polls showing support possibly as low as 15-20% [00:07:31].

• Economic Cost: Unification would be extremely expensive for Romania, which already struggles financially [00:07:53].
• Political Divisions: Moldova remains politically divided with significant support for Russia [00:08:09].
• Demographic Concerns: Romanians worry about the implications of admitting up to a quarter of a million ethnic Russians and importing these existing political fractures into their country [00:08:14].
• Federal System: A federal system, allowing Moldova to run its own affairs, could fulfill the aspiration for unification [00:08:28]. However, it would offer few tangible benefits while maintaining all the disadvantages, as Romania would bear the costs without much control over Moldova [00:08:36].

Broader Political Questions

Beyond the attitudes within both countries, several broader political issues must be addressed:

• European Union: It is unclear how Romania’s EU partners would react to a unification attempt [00:08:59]. While there’s the precedent of German unification in the early 1990s, the situations are different, primarily because Germany was wealthy enough to fund the process [00:09:08].
• Legal Issues: A unification process would seemingly bypass the standard, lengthy EU accession process, which is designed to ensure new entrants meet membership demands [00:09:27]. A complex arrangement would be needed to prevent problems for the EU from Moldova’s membership by unification [00:09:44].
• Transnistria: This “frozen conflict” concerns a territory added to the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic by the Soviet Union, which unilaterally declared independence in 1991 [00:09:53]. Transnistria has about half a million inhabitants, a third of whom are Russian, and is supported by Moscow and propped up by approximately 1500 Russian troops [00:10:10]. This raises serious questions about whether the EU or NATO would be willing to inherit a new territorial issue, especially one with direct Russian involvement [00:10:19].

Conclusion

Despite a body of opinion in both countries supporting unification, it appears unlikely [00:10:37]. For Moldovans, it would mean giving up political independence for little obvious gain [00:10:46]. For Romanians, while unification is spoken of, it is not a high priority given the economic and political costs [00:10:52]. Ultimately, unification may be an aspirational goal never to be reached [00:11:02].

However, the two nations may find unity in another way. With Russia’s war in Ukraine providing new impetus for European integration, Moldova may commit to a European pathway [00:11:09]. While this process will likely be slow and the question of Transnistria will remain significant, there is a possibility that Romania and Moldova could one day be united within the European Union [00:11:23].