From: jameskerlindsay
The ongoing war in Ukraine has drawn increasing attention to Moldova and its breakaway region of Transnistria [00:00:01]. With growing unrest, there are concerns that Transnistria could become Moscow’s next target [00:00:09]. This situation raises significant questions about the future of the Transnistrian dispute and its broader implications [00:01:25].
Background: Transnistria’s De Facto Status
Transnistria, also known as Trans-Dniester, is located on Moldova’s eastern edge [00:01:54]. It covers 4,200 square kilometers, or approximately 10% of Moldova’s territory [00:01:59]. Its population, as of a 2015 census, stood at 475,000, roughly equally divided among Russians, Moldovans, and Ukrainians [00:02:07].
The region declared independence unilaterally in August 1991, forming the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic [00:04:10]. Major fighting erupted between Moldovan and Transnistrian forces on March 2, 1992 [00:04:26]. The Russian army, stationed in Transnistria, intervened to defend the breakaway republic [00:04:30]. A ceasefire was agreed upon in July 1992, after four and a half months of conflict and around a thousand deaths [00:04:38].
Under the ceasefire, a contingent of Russian troops remained as part of a peacekeeping force, and Moscow also maintained a separate contingent of troops, which are still present today despite a UN General Assembly call for their withdrawal [00:04:45]. This established Transnistria as an internationally unrecognized de facto state under Russia’s protection [00:05:02].
Implications for Moldova
The unresolved status of Transnistria has profound implications for Moldova:
Sovereignty and Western Integration
Efforts to resolve the conflict under the auspices of the OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, EU, and US have been unsuccessful [00:05:12]. Moldova has been reluctant to grant significant power to Transnistria, particularly if it means giving Russia influence over internal Moldovan affairs [00:05:27]. This dispute has served as a valuable bargaining chip for Moscow, effectively blocking Moldova’s pursuit of European Union and NATO membership [00:05:45].
Demographic Shifts
An annexation of Transnistria by Russia could lead to its population being cut off from the rest of Moldova and the wider world [00:06:55]. This could result in many Moldovans and Ukrainians leaving the region, with only Russians remaining [00:07:04].
Military Limitations
Moldova’s government has publicly committed to a peaceful settlement [00:08:05]. Even if it wanted to retake Transnistria by force, Moldova’s army is small and poorly equipped, despite the relative weakness of Russia’s forces in the region [00:08:11]. Any military action could also provoke devastating responses from Moscow, including airstrikes on Moldovan cities [00:08:24].
The “Ditching” Debate
Some have suggested that Moldova might consider accepting Transnistria’s independence to resolve the long-running dispute [00:10:21]. While unlikely, as states rarely voluntarily relinquish territory, this could simplify EU membership and potentially open the door to NATO or even union with Romania [00:10:28]. However, this carries significant problems:
- Approximately a third of Transnistria’s population is Moldovan, making it difficult for Moldova to abandon them [00:11:14].
- An independent Transnistria could become another Russian client state or an exclave like Kaliningrad [00:11:31].
- Given Russia’s strong presence, it’s unlikely that an independent Transnistria would develop closer ties with the West [00:11:52].
Implications for International Relations
The status of Transnistria is a critical element in wider international relations, particularly in the context of the former Soviet Union.
Russian Influence and Military Presence
Russian forces have been stationed in Transnistria since 1992 [00:04:30]. Moscow’s control over the de facto state has served as a strategic tool to maintain its influence in the region and prevent Moldova from aligning with Western blocs [00:05:45].
Impact of the Ukraine War
The conflict in Ukraine has intensified speculation around Transnistria:
- Russian Objectives: There has been speculation that Russian forces might attempt to link up with the 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria, either as a prelude to an attack on western Ukraine or to take control of Moldova [00:00:49]. Statements from a Russian general suggested this as a war aim, though Russia has denied it [00:01:11].
- Potential Annexation: The most immediate concern is that Russia might invade and recognize Transnistria’s independence, potentially followed by annexation, similar to Crimea and parts of Donbas [00:06:18]. This would transform Transnistria from a Russian-occupied de facto state into annexed territory, though it would remain internationally unrecognized as part of Moldova [00:06:48].
- Ukrainian Intervention: Ukraine might launch an attack on Russian forces in Transnistria to secure its southwestern flank, especially if Transnistria appears to be preparing to join the attack on Ukraine [00:09:05]. This is seen as a potential “unexpected surprise” of the war [00:09:22].
- Challenges to Negotiation: A negotiated settlement seems unlikely as long as the war in Ukraine continues [00:09:35]. Transnistrian leaders would likely not relinquish their claim to independence while hoping for Russian support, and Russia’s military presence would prevent them from acting independently [00:09:41]. While a Russian setback in Ukraine could alter dynamics, reaching a deal would still be difficult [00:09:56].
- Romania’s Role: Neighboring Romania, a NATO member, cannot directly intervene as it did in 1992, as this could lead to a serious confrontation between Russia and the West [00:08:49].
Potential Outcomes
Given the complexities, several scenarios are possible:
- Russian Escalation: Direct Russian invasion and annexation, further entrenching the dispute [00:06:30].
- Moldovan Military Action: Highly unlikely due to Moldovan commitment to peace and military weakness [00:08:01].
- Ukrainian Intervention: Possible if Transnistria poses a direct threat to Ukraine [00:09:05].
- Negotiated Settlement: Difficult while the Ukraine war rages, but may become more feasible if Russia’s position weakens significantly [00:09:33].
- Continuation of Frozen Conflict: Despite the tumultuous events, Transnistria could remain a frozen conflict, albeit within a new, highly tense geopolitical context between Russia and the West [00:12:01].
The future of Transnistria, and Moldova as a whole, is intricately linked to the trajectory of the war in Ukraine [00:12:25].