From: jameskerlindsay
In recent months, there has been growing concern regarding China’s increasing military activity around the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea [00:00:00]. This concern intensified after a CNN news team witnessed the Chinese Air Force warning a US plane to leave international airspace [00:00:07]. The Philippines has also voiced apprehension about a significant increase in the Chinese presence around the islands [00:00:16]. These developments have sparked renewed fears about the possibility of an armed conflict in a region where six different actors have territorial claims [00:00:23].
The Spratly Islands Dispute
The Spratly Islands dispute has been ongoing for over a century, with tensions steadily escalating in recent decades as China has become more forceful with its claims [00:01:32]. In total, six parties claim the islands, either in whole or in part: China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei [00:01:43]. Many observers believe this area could become the focus of a full-scale armed confrontation [00:01:55].
The islands themselves are largely uninhabited, comprising over a hundred tiny islets, reefs, and atolls, many of which are wholly or partially submerged [00:02:08]. Only about 20 are considered significant [00:02:16]. While small, the islands cover a vast area of approximately 400,000 square kilometers (160,000 square miles), making them militarily, economically, and strategically valuable [00:02:29].
Strategic Importance
By claiming this territory, countries can control territorial waters and undersea resources across much of the region [00:02:45]. This includes:
- Control of one of the world’s most important shipping lanes [00:02:53].
- Access to significant fishing banks [00:02:57].
- Potential oil and gas deposits around the islands [00:03:01].
Historical Background of Claims
The history of the Spratly Islands dates back almost 2,000 years, with their discovery attributed to Chinese fishermen and later mentions in Imperial Chinese records [00:03:06]. At that time, they were seemingly understood as an extension of the Paracel Islands, which are subject to a separate dispute today [00:03:16].
European encroachment into East Asia in the 16th century marked a new phase [00:03:29]. While Portuguese explorers were among the first Europeans to visit, Spain formally claimed the territory and built a lighthouse [00:03:35]. In the 19th century, other European colonial powers made claims, including France (as part of Indochina/Vietnam) and Britain, which named the islands after a British sea captain [00:03:47]. During World War II, Imperial Japan seized the territory until its defeat in 1945 [00:04:12].
After World War II, the question of sovereignty over the islands became hotly contested [00:04:20].
- In 1947, the Republic of China (Taiwan) published a map indicating the Spratly Islands as Chinese territory [00:04:29].
- The Communist People’s Republic of China, established in 1949, also claimed the islands [00:04:39].
- In the following decade, independent states like Vietnam and the Philippines also asserted sovereignty [00:04:48].
Escalation of Tensions and Militarization
The issue took on a more dangerous dimension as various countries began establishing small military presences [00:05:03].
- Taiwan set up an outpost on Itu Aba in 1956 [00:05:14].
- In the 1970s, Vietnam and the Philippines also created footholds [00:05:20].
- Regional tensions were evident, such as the 1974 clash between Chinese and South Vietnamese naval forces over the Paracel Islands, which resulted in over 70 deaths [00:05:27].
- Malaysia claimed part of the territory in 1983 [00:05:39].
- Brunei claimed a section after its independence in 1984 [00:05:48].
By the late 1980s, the situation was increasingly complex and tense [00:05:55]. In 1988, violence erupted when China forcibly removed the unified Vietnamese military presence in the “Battle of Johnson South Reef” [00:06:01]. Subsequently, Beijing launched an ambitious scheme to reclaim land around reefs and atolls to create artificial islands [00:06:13]. This activity dramatically increased in 2013, with an estimated 13 square kilometers (five square miles) of land reclaimed over three years [00:06:23].
China’s assertive claims led to pushback from other countries, including the United States, which sent a warship to the area in October 2015 [00:06:36].
The Permanent Court of Arbitration Ruling
In 2013, the Philippines referred China’s claims to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, an international tribunal [00:06:56]. Manila argued that Beijing had no right to claim sovereignty based solely on history and that any claim should be judged under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) [00:07:09]. Despite China’s refusal to participate and its dispute of the Court’s jurisdiction, the case proceeded as both countries were parties to the Convention [00:07:25].
The judges did not decide on sovereignty over the islands or delineate maritime boundaries [00:07:36]. Instead, they focused on which states had a claim to rights within the waters and on what grounds – whether historical relationship or international law (UNCLOS) should prevail [00:07:56].
In a detailed ruling, the Court sided against China [00:08:16]:
- It argued that rights to maritime zones should be based on UNCLOS [00:08:22].
- China’s actions, including land reclamation, had aggravated the situation and infringed on the Philippines’ rights within its exclusive economic zone [00:08:27].
- Crucially, the Court ruled that none of the so-called Spratly Islands were in fact “islands” as generally understood under the terms of UNCLOS [00:08:41]. Therefore, even if China had sovereignty, it would not confer an exclusive economic zone that would infringe on the rights of other states [00:08:53]. The Court called on both parties to comply with the Convention [00:09:08].
As expected, China refused to accept the ruling and still fundamentally rejects the findings [00:09:13]. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson called the arbitration case “pure political drama” orchestrated by the United States [00:09:21]. China also refuses to take the ownership issue before other legal bodies like the International Court of Justice [00:09:30].
Continued Militarization and Recent Tensions
Tensions have continued to rise as Beijing steadily builds up its presence on the islands [00:09:40]. Reports indicate that China has constructed military bases on three of the islands, despite earlier assurances from President Xi Jinping that China would not militarize the territory further [00:09:47].
Meanwhile, several other claimants have also become more active:
- Vietnam has reportedly begun dredging parts of the territory, creating around 220 hectares of new land in recent years [00:10:03].
- Malaysia retains control of a reef captured in the 1980s, which has since been turned into an island [00:10:12].
- Brunei is the only claimant without a presence on the islands [00:10:19].
- Although Indonesia doesn’t claim the islands, it has publicly challenged China’s claim [00:10:26].
Recent tensions include an incident in February 2023, where the Philippines Government filed a complaint accusing the Chinese Coast Guard of shadowing, harassing, engaging in dangerous maneuvers, and directing a military-grade laser at one of its vessels [00:10:37]. The Philippines is accusing China of threatening its sovereignty and security [00:11:00]. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. suggested that the Armed Forces of the Philippines must now reorient their mission against Beijing, calling the Spratly Islands a more difficult and complex issue than the Ukraine War [00:11:05].
Conclusion
The Spratly Islands dispute is an exceedingly complex issue involving many countries claiming some or all of the islands [00:11:24]. While UNCLOS provides clarity, the suggested resolution model would essentially exclude China and Taiwan, creating significant ongoing problems [00:11:34]. The key questions remain how far China is willing to push its highly disputed claim, and how far other states are prepared to defend their positions, especially if it means facing an armed confrontation with Beijing [00:11:48].
Despite international attention often focusing on the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the Spratly Islands may be a more likely focal point for conflict in the period ahead [00:12:03]. Given the sheer number of actors involved, this collection of rocks, reefs, and atolls could become the center of a bitter regional war if not handled carefully [00:12:15].