From: jameskerlindsay
The United States is currently renegotiating key agreements with three small Pacific countries: the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau [00:00:00]. These discussions are vital for securing U.S. national security interests and preserving international peace and stability [00:00:14], but they have proven more difficult than anticipated [00:00:23]. The outcome of these talks is significantly influenced by China’s increasing economic, political, and strategic influence in the region [00:09:12], [00:09:18].
The Compacts of Free Association (COFA)
The three nations – the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Palau – are in “free association” with the United States [00:01:25], [00:01:42]. This concept, originally developed for decolonisation, grants territories full internal self-government while an outside state manages aspects of their defense and foreign affairs [00:01:02].
Under these agreements, known as the Compacts of Free Association (COFA):
- The territories are self-governing states with the right to conduct their own foreign affairs, in consultation with Washington [00:06:03].
- Their citizens have the right to live and work in the U.S [00:06:17].
- The United States assumes full authority and responsibility for their security and defense [00:06:22]. This includes the crucial “right of strategic denial,” allowing the U.S. to block other states from having military access to these countries [00:06:29], [00:10:03].
- The U.S. provides significant financial assistance and allows participation in certain federal economic programs [00:06:34]. This aid can amount to up to a third of their annual budgets [00:02:51].
The COFA agreements, with financial assistance periods extended in 2003 and 2004, are now up for renewal [00:08:04], [00:08:24].
China’s Growing Influence and its Implications
Beijing has been steadily increasing its support and extending its economic, political, and strategic influence across the Pacific region [00:09:18]. This growing presence presents a significant challenge for Washington [00:09:27].
Threats to US Interests
- Reduced U.S. Influence: If negotiations for the COFA fail, there are concerns that these states may be tempted to engage more actively with China [00:09:30].
- Diplomatic Realignment: This could lead the Marshall Islands and Palau, two of the remaining 13 UN members that still recognize Taiwan, to switch their recognition to Beijing [00:09:37].
- Loss of Strategic Denial: Most critically, a failure could eventually see the states terminate their compacts altogether, which would “rob Washington of its ‘right of strategic denial’” [00:09:49], [00:10:03]. This right is seen as a potential barrier against Beijing’s wider military ambitions [00:10:07].
- Regional Stability Concerns: In May 2022, Beijing proposed a major new security relationship with 10 Pacific Island States, offering financial incentives and free trade [00:10:55]. This initiative was reportedly blocked by Micronesia, which called it “a threat to regional stability” [00:11:12].
US Response and Strategy
The U.S. has recognized the critical value of these relationships, calling the Freely Associated States “the Bedrock of the U.S role in the Pacific” in its Indo-Pacific strategy documents [00:10:11].
Efforts to Counter Chinese Influence
- Prioritizing Negotiations: Despite initial difficulties and delays caused by the pandemic, there is a growing sense of urgency to finalize the COFA renewals [00:10:27], [00:10:31].
- Special Presidential Envoy: In March 2022, the Biden Administration appointed a Special Presidential Envoy for the negotiations [00:10:36].
- Congressional Support: Congress has also called for the negotiations to be prioritized [00:10:43].
- Increased Engagement: Washington has stepped up its own efforts to win over the region [00:11:28]. In September 2022, the U.S. hosted the first-ever Summit with Pacific island leaders, attended by President Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken [00:11:34]. Blinken also participated in the latest round of compact negotiations held in Washington [00:11:45].
Despite these efforts, a final agreement on the COFA renewals had not been reached by the end of 2022 [00:11:57]. The year 2023 is seen as vital for U.S. efforts to preserve its special links to these states and counter growing Chinese strategic influence [00:12:10].