From: jameskerlindsay
After a brief but bloody conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a peace agreement over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh on 9 November 2020 [00:00:06]. While Azerbaijan hailed the deal as an end to the issue, it raised a number of important questions about the future [00:00:14].
Background to the 2020 Conflict
The outbreak of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh on 27 September 2020 raised the prospect of a serious and protracted conflict in the South Caucasus [00:00:45]. However, the war proved to be much shorter than expected, ending after just six weeks following swift Azerbaijani advances into Armenian-held territory [00:00:58]. Russia brokered a peace agreement between the sides on the evening of 9 November 2020 [00:01:11].
The dispute centers on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, which was part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic within the USSR [00:01:40]. As the Soviet Union broke apart, it declared independence [00:01:53]. This sparked a bitter war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leaving Armenian forces in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and several surrounding Azerbaijani districts [00:01:59].
Efforts to resolve the issue in the following years, led by Russia, the United States, and France, laid down principles including:
- The return of surrounding districts to Azerbaijan’s control [00:02:22].
- The return of internally displaced persons [00:02:27].
- A land link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia [00:02:30].
- An agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh’s future status, to be confirmed by a referendum [00:02:34].
- Security measures to underpin any deal [00:02:40].
Despite this apparent agreement on broad terms, a final deal was not reached, and a return to war became increasingly likely [00:02:49]. Azerbaijan dramatically increased its military spending, leading to fears it planned to retake territories by force [00:02:56]. Major confrontations occurred, including a four-day conflict in 2016 and a serious skirmish in July 2020 [00:03:13].
On 27 September 2020, full-scale fighting erupted, with Azerbaijan deciding to use the opportunity to retake territory [00:03:23]. Azerbaijan swiftly retook most territory to the south of Nagorno-Karabakh, and by early November, Armenian forces were clearly losing as Azerbaijani forces moved into Nagorno-Karabakh proper and took its second-largest town [00:03:41]. With Azerbaijan on the verge of overrunning Armenian forces, Russia brokered an agreement to bring the fighting to an immediate end on the evening of Monday, 9 November [00:03:59].
Key Provisions of the Peace Agreement
The most significant aspect of the deal is that Azerbaijan regained control of all districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh [00:04:27]. By 1 December, Armenia would hand over any remaining territory still under its control [00:04:38]. Azerbaijan also retained control of areas within Nagorno-Karabakh captured prior to the ceasefire [00:04:43]. Armenia was required to withdraw all its armed forces from Azerbaijan [00:04:52].
Crucially, Armenia retained a direct transport link with Nagorno-Karabakh, with Azerbaijan guaranteeing the safety of travel [00:04:58]. In a significant development for Azerbaijan, a road would be built across Armenian territory to connect the main part of Azerbaijan with its western exclave, Nakhchivan [00:05:08]. This ends Azerbaijan’s reliance on air links or a road through Iran for access to Nakhchivan [00:05:22].
Other provisions included:
- All internally displaced persons would be allowed to return to their properties in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas, overseen by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees [00:05:31].
- An exchange of prisoners of war and other detainees, and the return of bodies of those killed [00:05:45].
- The agreement would be guaranteed by Russia, with almost 2,000 Russian troops stationed along the ceasefire line for an initial five-year period, automatically extending [00:05:53].
- Russian troops and border guards would control the corridors between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan [00:06:07].
Impact on Azerbaijan
The peace agreement represents a huge victory for Azerbaijan [00:06:19]. Having been defeated in the early 1990s, a source of deep national humiliation, Azerbaijan felt it had restored its honor by taking territories around Nagorno-Karabakh and making significant encroachments within Nagorno-Karabakh itself [00:06:23].
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev declared that the districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and “even Karabakh itself had been liberated” [00:06:43]. The securing of a land link to Nakhchivan, a specific demand of the president, further emphasized the scale of the Azerbaijani win, leading to jubilation among Azerbaijanis [00:06:55].
Reasons Azerbaijan did not press on to retake all territory included:
- No guarantee the war would remain smooth as winter set in, potentially prolonging and increasing costs [00:07:22].
- Key goals were achieved: surrounding districts returned, and Nagorno-Karabakh no longer represented a credible separatist threat [00:07:34].
- By allowing Nagorno-Karabakh to continue to exist, Azerbaijan gained the prize of a land corridor with Nakhchivan, a bargaining chip that would have been lost if Nagorno-Karabakh had been overrun [00:07:45].
Impact on Armenia
The agreement signifies a devastating defeat for Armenia [00:08:05]. Although Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that “this is not a victory, but there is no defeat until you consider yourself defeated”, Armenia was left with no choice but to surrender [00:08:10]. The leader of Nagorno-Karabakh explained that continued military action would have resulted in the loss of all of Nagorno-Karabakh within days and many more casualties [00:08:28].
The result was met with shock and anger by many Armenians, leading to protests and calls for the Prime Minister to resign [00:08:41].
However, the outcome, while bad, is not a complete disaster [00:08:55].
- The feared prospect of Azerbaijani troops completely overrunning Nagorno-Karabakh, with a real prospect of ethnic cleansing or genocide, was averted [00:09:02].
- Crucially, enough of Nagorno-Karabakh remains to make it a viable entity for future talks between Yerevan and Baku [00:09:14].
Role of External Powers
Turkey
Turkey was delighted with the outcome, calling it a “sacred success” for Azerbaijan [00:09:33]. Having openly sided with Baku, the Turkish president burnished his credentials at home and in Azerbaijan [00:09:39]. The creation of a land corridor across Armenia now means a direct road link between Ankara and Baku, strengthening economic, political, and ethnic ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan [00:09:48].
Russia
Russia is also a major winner [00:10:04]. Initially, Moscow appeared uncertain on how to respond, despite a defense agreement with Armenia [00:10:09]. However, Russia sought to maintain its position as a regional hegemon and avoid alienating Azerbaijan, thus deciding to play the role of “peacemaker” [00:10:33].
Russia chose its moment carefully to maximize its advantages [00:10:45]. The agreement came at the perfect moment:
- Any sooner would have damaged ties with Baku, which was winning [00:10:55].
- Any later, with Nagorno-Karabakh completely lost, would have robbed Russia of leverage [00:11:00].
- Had Nagorno-Karabakh fallen, Armenians might have blamed Moscow for not intervening [00:11:08].
As it stands, while Armenians may feel Moscow could have done more, Yerevan will continue to rely on Moscow to retain what they still hold [00:11:16]. The presence of Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan also extends Russia’s regional footprint [00:11:26].
Future Implications for Armenia and Azerbaijan
In the immediate future, much work is needed to ensure the peace agreement terms are met, exchanges completed, and internally displaced persons can return home [00:11:37].
Looking ahead, the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh continues to exist, protected by Russian peacekeepers, means it remains an issue [00:11:55]. However, its hopes of consolidating independent statehood are now at an end [00:12:08]. Even securing extensive autonomy within Azerbaijan appears unlikely for the moment [00:12:17]. President Aliyev insisted there would be no status of any sort for Nagorno-Karabakh, stating, “They wanted independence. They were offered autonomy. Now they get nothing” [00:12:26].
While Baku may not want to make concessions immediately after its military victory, it may be willing to discuss options in the future [00:12:40]. This could be part of a final comprehensive settlement with Armenia, potentially including trade-offs for consolidating a corridor between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave [00:12:48].
The possibility of a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh had long been recognized, and despite Azerbaijan’s decisive military victory, the dispute is not yet over [00:13:14]. Russia’s carefully timed intervention means the issue essentially remains in limbo [00:13:43]. Although the Nagorno-Karabakh republic no longer exists as a de facto state, important loose ends need resolution [00:13:49].
The key question remains whether Armenia and Azerbaijan can reach an historic overall political settlement, or if Russia, and perhaps Turkey, will try to keep the dispute on ice indefinitely to maintain their regional leverages [00:13:59].