From: jameskerlindsay
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a significant new attack on the Armenian-inhabited breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh [00:00:00]. Despite initial fears of a bitter and brutal new war, the territory surrendered by the following day [00:00:09]. Since the surrender, tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians have been leaving the area [00:00:16]. While Armenia has characterized this exodus as ethnic cleansing, Azerbaijan maintains that people are not being forced out but are leaving voluntarily [00:00:22].
Defining Ethnic Cleansing
Historically, conflicts have profoundly impacted civilian populations [00:00:49]. However, specific terms for severe human rights abuses, such as ‘genocide’ and ‘ethnic cleansing,’ are relatively recent [00:00:54].
While ‘genocide’ is clearly defined by the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group,” there is no specific convention defining ‘ethnic cleansing’ [00:01:19]. The term ‘ethnic cleansing’ emerged in the 1990s during the wars in former Yugoslavia [00:01:41].
The most widely accepted description of ethnic cleansing was provided in 1992 by a UN commission of experts [00:01:46]:
“rendering an area ethnically homogeneous by using force or intimidation to remove persons or given groups from the area” [00:01:53]
This can be achieved through various methods, including murder, torture, sexual assaults, severe injury to civilians, confinement in ghetto areas, forcible displacement, deliberate military attacks or threats against civilians and civilian areas, and property destruction [00:02:04]. Determining whether ethnic cleansing has occurred is not always straightforward [00:02:25]. The renewed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the flight of many ethnic Armenians, has intensified the debate over whether it constitutes ethnic cleansing [00:02:42].
Historical Context of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has a long and complex history [00:02:57]. Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous region in the South Caucasus traditionally inhabited primarily by ethnic Armenians [00:03:02]. Following the incorporation of the Caucasus into the Soviet Union and the creation of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republics in the early 1920s, Nagorno-Karabakh was granted autonomy within Azerbaijan as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast [00:03:10].
This arrangement continued until the collapse of the Soviet Union, at which point Nagorno-Karabakh sought to break away [00:03:28]. With support from Armenia, it declared independence and fought a three-year war against Azerbaijan, securing control over Nagorno-Karabakh and overrunning surrounding Azerbaijani districts [00:03:34]. This conflict led to the displacement of up to a million ethnic Azeris, which Azerbaijan has long considered ethnic cleansing [00:03:52].
Although the UN Security Council recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh during the war, international efforts to negotiate a settlement in the following years were unsuccessful [00:04:02]. The relationship between the sides remained notoriously hostile [00:04:18].
The Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020 and Peace Efforts
By the late 2000s, Azerbaijan, benefiting from Caspian oil and gas exports, began to build up its armed forces, leading to fears it planned to retake control by force [00:04:24]. After increasing incidents, including a brief four-day conflict in 2016 [00:04:41], a new war erupted in September 2020 when Azerbaijan launched a full-scale attack [00:04:47]. Azerbaijani forces seized occupied districts and moved into Nagorno-Karabakh [00:04:54].
Just as Azerbaijan seemed poised to overrun Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia brokered a ceasefire [00:05:01]. The agreement included a humanitarian corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh overseen by Russian peacekeepers, and Armenia agreed to open talks on providing Azerbaijan overland access to its exclave of Nakhchivan [00:05:11].
Following this, the European Union took the lead in trying to negotiate a final peace agreement [00:05:28]. Armenia, having accepted Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the area, sought some form of autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh’s inhabitants, potentially allowing for future status talks [00:05:38]. However, Azerbaijan steadfastly rejected any special status for Nagorno-Karabakh or self-rule for the Armenian community, with President Ilham Aliyev insisting they would have the same rights as any other Azerbaijani citizens [00:05:58].
Renewed Conflict and Mass Exodus (2023)
Tensions escalated again, leading to fighting along the border [00:06:19]. In late 2022, Baku imposed a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh, restricting access to food, electricity, and humanitarian aid [00:06:23]. This deterioration of living conditions was seen by many as an attempt to force Nagorno-Karabakh into submission [00:06:37].
Fears grew that Azerbaijan was preparing a military operation for a decisive victory [00:06:46]. Despite pleas for restraint from the EU and US, the renewed assault began on September 19, 2023, with heavy bombardment [00:06:57]. Azerbaijan claimed it was responding to terrorist provocations, but its actions drew widespread international condemnation [00:07:11]. While Western governments criticized the use of force, they generally affirmed Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh [00:07:21].
Armenia condemned the attack, but Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made it clear that Armenia would not intervene [00:07:37]. Armenia was outgunned and any attempt to save Nagorno-Karabakh would lead to a wider war and potential territorial losses for Armenia itself [00:07:47]. The assault was brief, with the Armenian leadership in Nagorno-Karabakh surrendering within 24 hours [00:08:07].
The fighting ceased, but a crisis continued as tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fled [00:08:21]. Within a week, an estimated 50,000 of the territory’s 120,000 inhabitants had reached Armenia, with many more queued to leave [00:08:32]. This mass exodus led to claims by the Armenian Prime Minister that Azerbaijan was carrying out ethnic cleansing [00:08:46].
Accusations of Ethnic Cleansing
The Azerbaijani government strongly rejects claims of ethnic cleansing, calling them a national insult [00:09:00]. Baku insists its troops are not forcing people to leave, arguing that Armenians are departing voluntarily after being defeated by Azerbaijan [00:09:09]. They maintain that Armenians are not in danger, broadcasting messages of welcome and showing police handing out water to those leaving [00:09:32]. However, an Azerbaijani police force arrested a former senior Nagorno-Karabakh leader as he attempted to flee [00:10:06].
Conversely, many argue that what is occurring is, in fact, ethnic cleansing [00:10:15]. They point to Azerbaijan’s imposition of a blockade to starve the Armenian community into submission, followed by a military attack clearly aimed at retaking civilian areas [00:10:29]. Even if there isn’t a systematic force by Azerbaijani troops, reports of atrocities and the long, brutal history of the conflict suggest that many Armenians feel the danger of retribution is too great to risk, leaving them no choice but to depart [00:11:05].
Ultimately, the two sides hold very different views on whether the current situation amounts to ethnic cleansing [00:11:24]. Azerbaijan denies a policy of expulsion, asserting voluntary departures [00:11:34]. Armenia contends that Azerbaijan’s recent actions, including its violent resolution, made the mass exodus inevitable [00:11:41].
Future of the Armenian Population in Nagorno-Karabakh
Achieving an agreed international view on the situation seems unlikely, as many countries remain quiet on the issue [00:11:53]. Political alliances make a Security Council resolution improbable, though positions from other bodies like the Council of Europe or the European Parliament might emerge [00:12:03]. Without a specific crime of ethnic cleansing, a definitive legal answer is improbable; prosecutions might only occur for specific crimes against humanity or genocide, though many are skeptical of this [00:12:16].
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh’s status is now effectively over, with Azerbaijan securing a decisive victory [00:12:39]. The Republic of Artsakh, as Armenians knew the area, no longer exists, and hopes for independence or unification with Armenia are gone [00:12:57].
Key questions remain about the future of the Armenian population in Azerbaijan [00:13:08]. While many are fleeing, it is uncertain if any will stay or if those who left will return [00:13:14]. The Azerbaijani government states Armenians are welcome to remain and presumably return, but the genuineness of this statement is unclear, with sceptics suggesting it’s meant to quell international criticism [00:13:24].
Many suspect there will be no meaningful steps to welcome Armenians back, and few Armenians will want to return given Baku’s refusal to outline steps for self-rule [00:13:44]. After decades of conflict, it seems unlikely that many Azerbaijanis will mourn the departure of the Armenians [00:13:57]. Broader international and geopolitical implications stemming from this conflict are also noted [00:14:18].