From: jameskerlindsay
In September 2023, the leader of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) reportedly sent a letter to US President Biden, warning that the region was on the verge of collapse [00:00:00]. This marked a disastrous turnaround for Iraqi Kurdistan, which had long been seen as a key US ally and a potential future country [00:00:15].
The Kurds are often described as the world’s largest nation without a state [00:02:03]. Estimates suggest up to 35 million Kurds live across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Armenia, with an additional 5 to 10 million forming a diaspora in Europe, Lebanon, Russia, and elsewhere [00:02:08]. With a history spanning thousands of years, Kurds have played an instrumental role in the development of the Middle East [00:02:27].
Early Hopes for a State
The possibility of a Kurdish country emerged after the First World War, but the plan was never implemented [00:02:39]. The area designated for an independent Kurdish state was instead divided between the new Republic of Turkey and the Kingdom of Iraq [00:02:48]. Despite this, the Kurdish quest for a homeland has continued [00:02:59].
Divergent Paths to Autonomy
In Turkey
In Turkey, home to an estimated 10 to 15 million Kurds, the Kurdish quest was led by the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) [00:03:06]. Since the early 1980s, the PKK has waged a violent insurgency against the Turkish state [00:03:15]. While initially aiming for an independent Kurdish homeland, the group now states it is pressing for greater Kurdish autonomy [00:03:20]. This ongoing conflict contributes to the broader Turkey and Syria Kurdistan conflict.
In Iraq: The Rise of the KRI
Iraqi Kurds followed a different path [00:03:29]. After staging several uprisings, their fortunes changed in 1990 when Saddam Hussein’s annexation of Kuwait led to the First Gulf War [00:03:33]. Following Iraq’s defeat, the Kurds in the north revolted against the central government [00:03:46]. This led the United Nations to create no-fly zones in the north and south of Iraq, providing security for the Kurds to establish an autonomous territory known as the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI) [00:03:58].
Over the subsequent years, the KRI effectively became a de facto state [00:04:17]. While not independent, it developed many features of a country, including a defined territory, a settled population, democratic government institutions, and a network of informal diplomatic ties with other states [00:04:23]. As a result, the Kurdish region gradually came to be seen as a “country in waiting” [00:04:43].
The 2003 US invasion of Iraq brought changes [00:04:49]. Although there was sympathy for Kurdish aspirations, the preference after Saddam Hussein’s ousting was for the KRI to remain part of Iraq, albeit with considerable autonomy under a new federal system established in 2005 [00:04:54]. Nevertheless, an informal regional referendum in 2005 showed almost complete support for statehood [00:05:11].
The 2017 Kurdish Independence Referendum
Over the following decade, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) continued preparations for independence [00:05:19]. In July 2014, the KRI president announced plans for a vote, but this was shelved due to attacks by the Islamic State [00:05:24]. Efforts resumed after ISIS was forced from the area [00:05:38].
In June 2017, the KRG announced an independence vote would be held that September [00:05:46]. This immediately led to widespread outcry [00:05:52].
Opposition and Support
- Iraqi Central Government: Vehemently opposed the referendum [00:05:55].
- Neighboring States: Turkey, Iran, and Syria all opposed Kurdish attempts to break away [00:05:59].
- Key Allies: Close allies of the Kurds, including the United States and Britain, expressed concerns, insisting that while they didn’t dismiss Kurdish hopes for independence, the timing was not right as the focus needed to remain on defeating ISIS [00:06:04]. This reflects the broader international response to Kurdish issues.
- Israel: The only significant international actor to support the plan was Israel [00:06:24].
Referendum Outcome and Aftermath
Despite objections, the vote proceeded [00:06:30]. With over 70% turnout, 3 million people participated, and 93% (2.8 million) favored independence [00:06:35].
However, hopes for statehood were short-lived [00:06:46]. A concerted effort immediately began to dissuade the KRI from breaking away:
- Iraqi Government Actions: Facing the loss of significant oil and gas reserves, the Iraqi government isolated the region [00:06:56]. Baghdad suspended international flights to and from the KRI and took control of border crossings with Iran [00:07:03]. More significantly, Iraqi forces seized disputed territory, including the oil-rich region of Kirkuk, which had been captured by Kurdish forces during their battle against ISIS [00:07:11].
- Neighboring State Threats: Iran and Turkey indicated they would impose sanctions and other punitive measures if the Kurdish authorities proceeded, which would have left a landlocked new state completely isolated [00:07:24]. These actions are also part of the broader Turkey’s military operations against Kurds context.
- Allies’ Stance: Key allies, including Washington and other Security Council members, clarified their opposition to any declaration of independence [00:07:46]. Having failed to dissuade the KRG from holding the referendum, the US announced it did not recognize the results and would not recognize an Iraqi Kurdish State created by unilateral declaration [00:07:51].
Faced with overwhelming opposition, the KRG had no choice but to back down [00:08:10]. Within weeks, it announced the referendum results had been frozen [00:08:16]. Two months later, the Iraqi Supreme Court ruled secession illegal and annulled the referendum, a decision unchallenged by Kurdish authorities [00:08:21].
Current Challenges Facing Iraqi Kurdistan
Despite seeming so close to independence in 2017, Iraqi Kurdistan now faces worries of collapse [00:08:33]. The Kurdish Regional Government challenges in Iraq are significant:
Pressure from Baghdad
The region has come under increasing pressure from the central Iraqi government [00:08:45]. Beyond their long-standing differences over independence, the two sides have been at loggerheads over energy [00:08:51]. In March 2023, Baghdad won a critical case at the International Court of Arbitration, alleging that Kurdish oil exports via Turkey were illegal [00:09:00]. This victory halted a lucrative trade of 450,000 barrels of oil per day, causing KRG oil revenues to collapse and leading to struggles in paying regional officials and administration [00:09:14].
Pressure from Iran
Iran has faced its own growing Kurdish separatist threat [00:09:33]. Arguing that militant groups are taking refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan, Tehran has pressured both the Iraqi central government and the KRG to disarm “terrorist secessionist groups” [00:09:41]. This has led to increasing incursions into the KRI by Iranian-backed Shiite militias [00:09:57].
Internal Divisions within Iraqi Kurdistan
Matters are complicated by entrenched divisions within the Kurdish population in Iraq [00:10:03]. The two main factions are:
- Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP): Controls the presidency and government, and is the largest party in the Kurdish Parliament [00:10:15].
- Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): Has traditionally held the Iraqi Federal presidency [00:10:24].
As long-standing rivals, the PUK has increasingly turned to Iraq’s Arab community and Tehran for support, extending Baghdad and Tehran’s political and strategic reach into the Kurdish area [00:10:33].
Other Destabilizing Factors
Concerns about widespread corruption and a declining human rights situation also destabilize the region [00:10:49], which was once considered more democratic and open than its neighbors [00:11:02].
Call for US Assistance and Waning Influence
The increasing instability explains the alleged plea for help to the United States [00:11:09]. Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s letter reportedly painted a stark picture, arguing the region was “bleeding economically and haemorrhaging politically,” potentially leading to the collapse of Kurdistan and even the Iraqi federal system [00:11:19].
However, observers have doubts about the impact of this call for assistance [00:11:39]. While the United States maintains an active interest, providing significant aid, supporting Kurdish militia forces, and maintaining a diplomatic presence in Erbil, many believe the US is not as engaged as it could be [00:11:47]. Washington’s power to act has seemingly deteriorated since its formal withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, leading to a steady waning of influence [00:12:13]. Concurrently, neighboring Iran has become a more prevalent actor [00:12:24].
Furthermore, many argue Washington is focused on other global issues, such as the war in Ukraine and concerns about Chinese military action against Taiwan, limiting its political capability and diplomatic bandwidth to act significantly in Iraqi Kurdistan [00:12:29].
While Iraqi Kurdistan has shown remarkable resilience in the past, often with external support from the United States, it is undoubtedly far weaker than just a few years ago [00:12:48]. Under threat from Baghdad and Tehran, and internally divided, its days as a “country-in-waiting” may now have ended [00:13:12].