From: jameskerlindsay
Ethiopia is currently facing significant internal challenges, including a major insurgency in the Amhara region, which has led to concerns about the country’s stability and potential for a wider civil war [00:00:00]. While civil wars can involve a group or region against a central government, they can also stem from power struggles between different peoples and territories within a state that the national government must manage [00:00:51]. In extreme cases, multiple groups fighting each other can lead to extraordinarily complex situations that threaten a country’s existence [00:01:06]. The conflict in Amhara serves as a prominent example of these dynamics [00:01:14].
Historical Context
Ethiopia, one of the world’s most ancient countries, emerged as the Kingdom of Axum nearly 2,000 years ago [00:02:42]. The Ethiopian Empire, also known as Abyssinia, was established in the late 13th century [00:02:50].
Amhara Dominance and Decline
From the outset of the Ethiopian Empire, the Amhara ethnic group held significant power, including the imperial throne and crucial positions within the hierarchy, extending their influence across the country [00:02:57]. Amharic language and Orthodox Christianity became central to Ethiopian national identity [00:03:13].
The traditional Amhara dominance began to wane after the 1974 left-wing military coup that overthrew Emperor Haile Selassie [00:03:20]. The new communist regime, known as the Derg, reduced the Amhara’s traditional influence, despite many officers being Amhara [00:03:28]. This decline was further cemented in 1991 when the Derg was overthrown by a coalition of ethnic militias led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) [00:03:39].
Introduction of Ethnic Federalism
To address long-standing grievances of minorities, the new TPLF government reorganized Ethiopia as a federation along ethnic lines [00:03:52]. In 1995, Ethiopia was divided into nine regions [00:04:03]. Crucially, several areas traditionally controlled by the Amhara were incorporated into the Tigray region [00:04:08].
This Tigrayan dominance in the new federal system and the land transfers fueled Amhara resentment towards the central government [00:04:15]. Many Amhara felt their historical place was undermined and began to abandon traditional support for a unified Ethiopian national identity, instead turning to Amhara nationalism to better represent their interests [00:04:24]. This resentment persisted for two decades as the Tigrayans, the fourth-largest ethnic group, continued to dominate the country [00:04:43].
Shift in Power and the Tigray War
Tigrayan power eventually weakened, especially after Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s death in 2012 [00:04:54]. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed Ali, an ethnic Oromo, became the new Ethiopian Prime Minister [00:05:04]. Initially, this seemed positive for the Amhara, as Abiy Ahmed, seen as a reformer, worked to reduce the TPLF’s power [00:05:11].
In 2020, a dispute erupted between the federal government and the TPLF over national elections amidst the COVID-19 pandemic [00:05:29]. Following TPLF attacks on a federal military base, Abiy Ahmed ordered the Ethiopian National Defense Forces to take control of the area, sparking a brutal two-year civil war [00:05:38].
The Amhara saw an opportunity, joining the conflict alongside the federal government to reclaim territories given to Tigray in 1995 [00:05:53]. They seized control of western Tigray [00:06:10]. However, their hopes were short-lived; the peace agreement in November 2022, mediated by the African Union, called for the withdrawal of all non-Tigrayan forces, including Amhara militias, from Tigray [00:06:14].
This perceived betrayal by the federal government deepened discontent among the Amhara, who felt their contributions were ignored and historical grievances disregarded [00:06:35]. This led to growing tensions between Amhara forces and the central government [00:06:48].
Growing Tensions
Amhara-Oromo Disputes
As relations deteriorated between the Amhara and the federal government, problems also worsened between the Amhara and neighboring Oromo [00:07:08]. Suspicions arose that Abiy Ahmed favored his own ethnic group, leading to distrust between the Amhara and Oromo wings of the ruling Prosperity Party [00:07:21]. Fears also grew that the Oromo were trying to undermine Amhara influence, exemplified by attempts by Oromo priests to break away from the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, which uses Amharic as its working language [00:07:31].
Additionally, growing confrontations occurred along the boundary between Amhara and Oromia, as regional forces fought for control of several areas [00:07:48]. These border issues, present before the Tigray war, worsened as both sides gained combat experience and weaponry from fighting in the north [00:07:59]. Clashes also increased between Amhara forces and separatist groups in the Oromia Special Zone, an autonomous area within Amhara established in the 1995 territorial reorganization [00:08:12].
The Amhara Conflict (2023-Present)
Against this backdrop of growing Amhara-Oromo fighting and Amhara resentment towards the federal government, the Ethiopian government decided to clamp down on local militias in Amhara [00:08:27].
On April 9, 2023, federal forces launched an operation to disarm local militias and bring them under national military control [00:08:37]. This move met widespread protests and resistance [00:08:46].
Emergence of Fano
At the center of the opposition to the federal government was a group known as Fano [00:08:52]. Fano emerged as a nationalist movement in 2018 amid rising tensions between the Amhara and Oromo [00:08:57]. The group played a leading role in the Amhara campaign to seize and hold western Tigray [00:09:04]. Fano is not a single organized group but rather a loose affiliation of different organizations, lacking a unified command structure [00:09:10]. Despite this, Fano has enjoyed considerable popular support among the Amhara, rapidly recruiting new fighters from Amhara security forces who refused to join the national army [00:09:21].
By mid-2023, Fano had captured several major towns and cities, including the historically important centers of Gondar and Lalibela [00:09:37]. Facing a rapidly deteriorating situation, the government declared a state of emergency on August 4, 2023 [00:09:48]. While the Ethiopian National Defense Forces regained control of many towns and cities, opposition continued to grow, leading federal forces to resort to increasingly brutal tactics, including artillery bombardment and airstrikes [00:09:56].
Failed Solutions and Ongoing Violence
Although the Ethiopian government eased some restrictions in 2024, such as lifting the ban on communications, efforts to find a political solution have consistently failed [00:10:14]. A promised referendum on the territory issue in November 2023 has not been held [00:10:26]. The lack of a defined Fano leadership has scuppered hopes for peace talks [00:10:33].
The violence continues to escalate. Aid organizations report ongoing fighting between the government and militias, with Fano claiming control over parts of Gondar in September 2024 [00:10:43]. There is also a growing problem of armed criminal gangs exploiting the region’s lawlessness [00:10:54]. This situation contributes to a growing sense that the situation in Amhara is spiraling out of control [00:11:01].
Potential Consequences for Ethiopia
The Amhara conflict raises troubling questions about Ethiopia’s future, specifically whether it could ignite a wider civil war and lead to the country’s disintegration [00:11:18]. As the second-largest group in the country, any full-scale conflict involving the Amhara would have devastating human and political consequences [00:11:36]. The question remains whether Ethiopia can survive if the Amhara, who symbolize Ethiopian identity, are marginalized and excluded [00:11:49].
The complex ethnic tensions extend beyond Amhara, with Ethiopia facing a precarious balancing act to maintain national unity while addressing competing grievances of various ethnic groups, including the Amhara, Tigrayans, Oromo, and the large Somali community in the east, which also has a history of unrest [00:11:59].
Many observers note that predictions of Ethiopia’s imminent collapse have been made many times before, including during the Tigray conflict, yet Ethiopia has survived [00:12:25]. The current crisis in Amhara is part of a larger pattern of ethnic tensions that have long simmered beneath the surface of Ethiopian politics [00:12:41]. The ethnic federalism introduced in the 1990s, intended to address historical grievances and promote ethnic autonomy, has inherently fueled rivalries and conflict [00:12:51].
Despite Ethiopia’s apparent resilience, there is a risk of complacency [00:13:02]. While tempting to view the Amhara conflict as just one of many disputes, there remains the possibility that this conflict could break Ethiopia apart, especially given the fundamental role the Amhara have played in Ethiopia’s development [00:13:14]. Therefore, dealing with the conflict in Amhara is considered more critical than many outsiders may appreciate [00:13:36].