From: jameskerlindsay
In October 2023, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali initiated concerns about a potential conflict in the Horn of Africa by calling for Ethiopia to secure access to the strategically vital Red Sea [00:00:00]. This statement led neighboring Eritrea to put its forces on alert, suggesting a return to war between the two nations with a long and challenging history [00:00:13]. Although the immediate threat seems to have lessened, many observers remain concerned that conflict could still be on the horizon [00:00:26].
Background on Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambitions
Geography plays a crucial role in international relations, especially for landlocked states [00:00:46]. Ethiopia, one of the world’s approximately 40 landlocked states, often feels vulnerable and dependent on its neighbors due to a lack of direct access to international waters and airspace [00:00:51]. Historically, many such states have viewed unfettered strategic sea access as a vital national interest, sometimes leading to conflict [00:01:05]. In October 2023, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali reignited this issue by publicly suggesting Ethiopia needed direct access to the Red Sea [00:01:24].
Abiy Ahmed’s Rise and Initial Foreign Policy
Abiy Ahmed Ali, an ethnic Oromo, was elected as a young reformist prime minister in Ethiopia in April 2018 [00:09:56]. Upon taking office, he began to challenge the deep-rooted Tigrayan dominance in Ethiopian politics [00:10:05].
Two months after becoming prime minister, Abiy Ahmed announced his government’s agreement to accept the Border Commission’s decision regarding the disputed Ethiopia-Eritrea border [00:10:12]. This decision was widely praised internationally and earned Abiy Ahmed the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize [00:10:21]. It also led to an immediate improvement in relations with Eritrea, highlighted by a face-to-face meeting between Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s long-serving President, Isaias Afwerki [00:10:31].
The Tigray War and Alliances
While Abiy Ahmed’s decision was lauded internationally, it caused outrage in Tigray, where the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) still held political sway [00:10:46]. Tensions between the TPLF and the Ethiopian central government escalated significantly in 2020 [00:11:06]. When Ethiopia postponed national elections due to the pandemic, Tigray proceeded with its own vote, resulting in a decisive TPLF victory [00:10:57]. With neither side recognizing the other’s legitimacy, conflict erupted in early November 2020 [00:11:10]. Abiy Ahmed dispatched the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) to regain control of Tigray and remove the TPLF from power [00:11:16].
During this civil war, Abiy Ahmed’s improved relations with Eritrea proved beneficial [00:11:29]. Eritrean President Afwerki, who harbored a deep animosity towards the TPLF, quickly offered support to Addis Ababa, providing sanctuary to Ethiopian troops fleeing into Eritrea [00:11:36]. The situation worsened when the TPLF launched rocket attacks on Eritrea, following reports that Eritrea had allowed Ethiopia to launch attacks on Tigray from its territory [00:11:46]. Within months, claims emerged that Eritrea had sent forces to aid the Ethiopian Army in Tigray, leading to accusations of Eritrean troops’ involvement in atrocities, war crimes, and potentially crimes against humanity [00:11:59].
Despite the joint cooperation, Tigrayan forces initially staged a comeback, at one point appearing poised to seize Addis Ababa as they had in 1991 [00:12:24]. However, the tide turned in 2022, when Ethiopian troops, again with support from Eritrean forces, pushed the Tigrayans back [00:12:42]. With the Ethiopian Army nearing Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, the African Union brokered a peace deal [00:12:49]. This agreement led to the surrender and demobilization of TPLF forces, and Ethiopia reasserted control over the province, with Tigray promised proper representation in national institutions [00:12:58].
Post-Tigray War Dynamics and Renewed Maritime Aspirations
Recent concerns about a renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea stem from several factors [00:13:12]. Although Eritrea allied with the Ethiopian government during the Tigray War, it was conspicuously excluded from the peace talks that ended the conflict [00:13:24]. Furthermore, there are ongoing claims that Eritrean troops remain in Tigray [00:13:31]. These issues have contributed to a souring of relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa [00:13:36].
The immediate trigger for renewed concern was a speech by Abiy Ahmed on October 15, 2023 [00:13:42]. In this speech, he stated that Ethiopia, which has emerged as one of Africa’s fastest-developing economies, should assert its rights to access the Red Sea [00:13:46]. Given that many Ethiopians still view Eritrea as a historical part of their country, this sparked fears that the Ethiopian government might be considering an invasion of Eritrea [00:13:57].
Consequently, Eritrean forces moved closer to the border, and Ethiopia responded in kind, prompting concerns about an imminent conflict [00:14:10]. However, just ten days later, Abiy Ahmed addressed the National Defense Forces, seeking to ease concerns by insisting that Ethiopia would not pursue its interests by force or attack “its fellow brothers” [00:14:25].
Despite these assurances, the long history of tensions between the two countries and Ethiopia’s persistent desire for maritime access lead many observers to wonder whether, despite Abiy Ahmed’s denials, Ethiopia and Eritrea may indeed be heading towards another war [00:14:40].