From: allin
Starship Development
The second Starship is currently stacked at Starbase and ready for its next flight [02:16:19]. The team believes they have completed all necessary requirements requested by the FAA, and are hopeful for a license soon [02:24:00]. The primary factor holding back the second launch is FAA approval [02:36:00].
For this mission, SpaceX is implementing a new “hot staging” technique, where the upper-stage engines ignite while the boost stage is still firing [03:02:03]. This method is considered the most efficient for rocket stage separation when going to orbit [03:17:00].
Regarding the probability of success:
- There is hoped to be “well over 50% chance of getting to Stage separation” [03:30:00].
- The chance of reaching orbit is estimated at “close to 50% chance” if hot staging works, possibly “above 30% chance” overall [03:36:00].
Starship is more than twice the size of the Saturn V and, with its extra rocket thrust, will have roughly three times the thrust of a Saturn V Moon rocket [04:06:40]. Unlike the Saturn V, which was completely expendable, Starship is designed to be fully and rapidly reusable, with both the booster and the ship returning to the launch site [04:21:00], where they are caught by “giant mega arms” [05:00:00]. This system aims for “aircraft level flight rates” for a rocket much larger than a 747 or A380 [05:16:00].
Starlink Operations and Impact
Starlink provides internet connectivity, including in-flight connections [01:04:07]. The latency for Starlink is very low, “less than 20 milliseconds” [01:40:00], which can make it a better connection than some home internet services [01:52:00].
Starlink’s Role in Ukraine
SpaceX has provided Starlink connectivity to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, within a few days of its start [06:15:00]. The Ukrainian government has stated that Starlink was “instrumental in the defense of Ukraine” [06:26:00]. Starlink serves as the “fundamental communication backbone” for the Ukrainian government and essential services like first responders [11:45:00]. It is described as “the only thing that works on the warfront” because everything else has been jammed by the Russians [11:56:45].
SpaceX has incurred significant out-of-pocket costs to support Ukraine, estimated at approximately $100 million [13:15:39]. This figure does not account for the “massive risk to the entire Starlink constellation” due to potential Russian attempts to delete or destroy it through cyberattacks or anti-satellite weapons [13:18:00]. SpaceX has not received compensation for this risk [13:56:00].
A situation arose where the Ukrainian government requested Starlink connectivity to be turned on in the region around Crimea for a “drone type attack” on the Russian fleet in Sevastopol [07:58:00]. However, this region was sanctioned by the United States against Russia, and SpaceX did not have explicit government approval to provide connectivity [07:22:00]. Granting the request would have meant taking part in a “major act of war” [08:28:00]. No directive from the US President to turn it on was received [09:00:00].
“This would not defeat Russia, it would enrage Russia.” [12:54:00]
SpaceX’s Global Presence
SpaceX and Starlink currently have “zero business in China” as they are not allowed to operate there [32:51:00]. While Elon Musk’s other business interests, such as Tesla, have a significant presence in China, the bulk of his business interests are outside of China [33:20:00].