From: allin
Boeing’s Starliner capsule, designed to transport astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS), has faced significant technical challenges and delays, leading to its first crewed mission leaving two astronauts stranded on the ISS. [01:21:49], [01:21:52]
Project History and Contracts
In the 2000s, NASA decided to stop manufacturing its own space vessels and instead rely on third-party contractors for transportation to low Earth orbit and the ISS. [01:22:32], [01:22:25] Following a competitive bidding process in 2010, both Boeing and SpaceX were awarded contracts to develop commercial crew transportation capabilities. [01:22:37], [01:22:43], [01:22:46]
- Boeing’s Contract: Boeing received a fixed-price contract of 1.6 billion financial hit on this program. [01:23:09]
- SpaceX’s Contract: SpaceX secured a $2.6 billion contract to develop its Crew Dragon capsule. [01:23:14] In contrast to Starliner’s single crewed mission, the Crew Dragon has successfully flown 13 missions to the ISS. [01:23:22] Additionally, the SpaceX Cargo Dragon has completed nine successful uncrewed missions to and from the ISS, with six more planned. [01:26:37], [01:26:42]
Starliner’s Troubled Timeline
The Starliner project, initially slated for a 2017 launch, has been plagued by a series of technical issues and subsequent delays:
- 2016: Design problems pushed the first crewed flight to 2019. [01:23:49], [01:23:33]
- 2018: Discovery of propellant leaks caused further delays. [01:23:56]
- 2019: A parachute failed during a test flight. [01:24:01]
- December 2019: An uncrewed test flight encountered software errors that could have destroyed the spacecraft. [01:24:06] This incident necessitated 80 different changes and cost Boeing an additional half-billion dollars. [01:24:12], [01:24:23]
- August 2021: On the launchpad, 13 propulsion system valve issues were found, leading to an aborted flight and the capsule’s return for repairs. [01:24:28]
- May 2022: The capsule finally launched, docked with the ISS, and returned to Earth, but one of its parachutes failed during descent. [01:24:38], [01:24:42]
Current Situation: Astronauts Stranded on ISS
The first crewed Starliner mission launched on June 5, 2024, with two NASA astronauts aboard. [01:25:00] However, during the journey, five out of the 28 maneuvering thrusters malfunctioned, and five helium leaks were discovered in the pressure-controlled system that operates the thrusters. [01:25:10], [01:25:21]
As a result, NASA announced on June 28 that while the Starliner is theoretically capable of returning, it is not approved for flight until these issues are understood and resolved. [01:25:34] The decision on the astronauts’ return has been pushed to the end of August, and they may be stuck on the ISS until February 2025. [01:25:50], [01:21:52]
Rescue by SpaceX?
It would be a significant embarrassment for Boeing if the stranded astronauts had to be rescued by a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. [01:25:54]
Discussion: Corporate Culture and Competition
The ongoing Starliner issues highlight broader concerns about Boeing’s corporate strategy and the benefits of competition in critical industries.
Boeing’s Complex Structure
Boeing operates three distinct and complex businesses: commercial airline, defense, and space. [01:27:07] Critics argue that it is extremely difficult to excel in even one of these areas, and the probability of succeeding across all three is “next to impossible,” suggesting that specialization is a better approach. [01:27:22], [01:27:31]
Misaligned Incentives
There is a perception that Boeing’s leadership, such as former CEO Dennis Muilenburg, prioritized stock price and “earnings per share growth” over fundamental safety and world-class engineering. [01:27:50], [01:28:44] This alleged shift in incentives may explain the recurring technical failures across its divisions. [01:28:32], [01:29:01]
Chamath Palihapitiya on Incentives
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome. If the incentive is safety and world-class engineering, that’s what you’ll get. But if the incentive is earnings per share growth, then that’s what you will also get.” [01:28:32]
The Value of Competition
The situation with Starliner underscores the benefit of NASA’s decision to award contracts to two different companies, Boeing and SpaceX. [01:29:24] This competitive approach allowed the market to solve the problem by providing a “more capable solution” in SpaceX, which was both on time and 40% cheaper than Boeing’s offering. [01:30:14], [01:30:20]