From: allin
Global conflicts and geopolitical dynamics are central to understanding the shifting international landscape. Discussions often highlight military strategies, economic sanctions, the rise of new powers, and the potential for conflict escalation.
Shifting Global Influence
There is a noticeable shift in global influence, with discussions pointing to a decline in American dominance.
- Rise of the Global South: Countries in the Global South are increasingly resisting the “collective West,” leading to a slow decline in U.S. influence worldwide [00:06:20]. This resistance is exemplified by how some nations view the Ukraine war. Fiona Hill, a Russia hawk, noted that the Global South is using the Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against the West and dethrone American hegemony globally [00:07:24].
- BRICS Expansion: While Argentina’s decision not to join BRICS was seen by some as a blowback against efforts to end dollar hegemony, it is largely considered a “one-off” event [00:05:58]. The broader trend indicates increasing resistance to Western influence [00:06:20].
Key Conflict Zones and Actors
The Russia-Ukraine War
The conflict in Ukraine remains a significant geopolitical focal point.
- Putin’s Ascendancy: Vladimir Putin is predicted to be the biggest political winner in 2024 [00:04:35]. In 2023, he stabilized the Russian economy despite Western sanctions [00:04:37] and gained the upper hand militarily in Ukraine [00:04:53]. The narrative of a stalemate in Ukraine is contested, with claims that Russia is winning the war [00:05:07]. Putin’s successful stance against the West has amplified his influence across the Global South and BRICS countries [00:05:17].
- Western Missteps: The West is criticized for contributing to Putin’s position as a victor by plunging into the war without thorough consideration and by being unable to provide sufficient aid for Ukraine to win [00:07:00]. The massive bet made by the collective West in challenging Putin in Ukraine is seen as having “completely crapped out” [00:16:52].
- Ukraine’s Decline: Ukraine is predicted to be a major political loser in 2024 [00:15:30]. The country has suffered significant demographic decline, with an estimated half-million soldier casualties and 10 million people having fled [00:16:12]. Only about 20 million people reportedly remain, half of whom are pensioners, raising concerns about the working population’s ability to support them [00:16:25]. Attention is shifting to the Middle East, and U.S. funding for the Ukraine conflict is becoming increasingly unpopular [00:15:35].
- Biden-Zelenskyy Rift: A significant shift in the Biden administration’s strategy in Ukraine suggests a quiet move towards a ceasefire and frozen conflict to avoid disrupting the upcoming election season [00:48:17]. This creates a rift with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who is unwilling to negotiate a ceasefire that would involve losing territory [00:48:38].
Middle East Conflicts
The Middle East continues to be a hotbed of conflict.
- Israel-Gaza Conflict: Israel’s invasion of Gaza is viewed as not going well, with concerns that Israel may not militarily achieve its objective of destroying Hamas [00:17:07]. The conflict has created a large humanitarian crisis, with over 20,000 Palestinians killed, 50,000 wounded, and 1.8 million displaced [00:17:44]. This has led to significant international condemnation of Israel, which is becoming a global pariah [00:18:00]. Benjamin Netanyahu is predicted to be a major political loser in 2024, as Israeli polls suggest a desire for his removal [00:19:04].
- Saudi Arabia’s Geopolitical Pivot: Saudi Arabia holds a crucial “central pivot position” among major nuclear powers vying for influence [00:11:07]. The U.S. has pressured Saudi Arabia to continue selling oil in dollars rather than Yuan [00:10:49] and sought assurances against China building military bases or utilizing Chinese technology [00:12:41]. In exchange, the U.S. offered military protection and assistance with a nuclear program [00:12:52].
- Putin’s Reception in the Middle East: In contrast to U.S. President Biden’s perceived snub of MBS, Putin received a very warm embrace and parade-like welcome in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [00:11:37]. This indicates that attempts to portray Putin as a global pariah are not succeeding due to his perceived defeat of the collective West in Ukraine [01:12:09].
Other Potential Flashpoints
- Venezuela and Guyana: Venezuela is attempting to annex Guyana’s large offshore oil reserves [00:55:10].
- Ethiopia and Neighbors: Ethiopia has tense relations with neighbors, with a risk of war breaking out with Egypt or Iraq, potentially spilling over and disrupting the Red Sea [00:55:23].
- Iran: Calls for war with Iran by neoconservatives persist [00:55:47].
- Turkey and NATO: There is a risk that Turkey could be challenged to leave NATO due to its alignment with groups like Hamas [00:47:02]. While no formal mechanism exists to expel a member, political commentary suggests Turkey is not a trusted ally, raising concerns about its potential shift towards Russia [00:47:16].
Economic Impacts of Geopolitics
Geopolitical shifts have direct economic consequences:
- German Economy: The German economy is suffering from the loss of cheap Russian gas, which undercut its industrial model [00:34:40]. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline further exacerbated this [00:34:01]. Additionally, the German car industry is significantly impacted by a glut of cheap Chinese cars [00:34:10].
- Energy Prices: The high risk of conflict breaking out and escalating in various regions, including the Middle East, Ukraine, Venezuela/Guyana, and Ethiopia, could lead to a spike in oil prices [00:55:01].
The Risk of Nuclear Conflict
A highly concerning and contrarian belief suggests an increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used in conflict for the first time [00:46:01].
- Declining Resources: This risk is conditioned on declining military supplies and reduced appetite/capacity to support traditional “meat grinder” conflicts [00:46:11].
- “Backed into a Corner” Scenario: A tactical, low-yield nuclear weapon could be used if a party feels backed into a corner [00:46:28].
- Increased Probability: While considered a low probability (1-2%), it is noted as 10 times higher than five years ago, with terrifying potential outcomes [00:46:47]. This concern has led some to purchase radiation suits and prepare for potential nuclear fallout [00:00:50].
Debt and Conflict
A direct relationship is drawn between rising national debt and the propensity for international conflict.
- Societal Fabric: High debt levels make it difficult to maintain societal fabric and economic growth, leading to a natural inclination to seek conflict elsewhere [01:25:01].
- U.S. Debt: The U.S. faces significant debt challenges, with Republicans potentially forcing budget cuts [01:25:31].