From: allin
Recent developments indicate an escalation in global conflicts, particularly concerning the war in Ukraine, with implications for international relations and the changing world order [01:00:00].
Situation in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine has seen Ukrainians losing territory at an accelerating pace [00:48:20]. A New York Times graphic illustrated that the situation is not a stalemate, but rather a war of attrition where Russians are gaining more territory each month, with the curve of their gains accelerating [00:48:27].
US Actions and Russian Response
In response to the on-the-ground conditions, the Biden Administration approved the use of long-range missiles, specifically ATACMS and Storm Shadows, to strike targets deep inside Russia [00:48:53]. Russians claim these weapons require American or British operators due to their complexity, viewing this as direct involvement by NATO allies (the United States and Britain) in the war, which they consider a significant escalation [00:49:09].
Russia has previously stated two “red lines”:
- NATO expanding to Ukraine, which they demonstrated seriousness about by invading Ukraine in February 2022 [00:49:49].
- American long-range missiles being used to target inside Russia, a line that has now been crossed [00:50:02].
Following the crossing of this second red line, Russia reportedly used an intermediate-range ballistic missile (possibly an ICBM, but more likely intermediate-range) to strike a Ukrainian city [00:50:15]. Although it did not carry a nuclear payload, it was capable of doing so [00:50:33]. Key features of this missile include:
- Hypersonic Speed: It hit the target at approximately Mach 10, making it interceptable by current Western and US technology [00:50:44].
- MIRV Warhead: It had a Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) payload, meaning the warhead splits into six separate warheads upon approaching the ground, making interception significantly harder [00:51:01].
This missile use, reportedly a first, signals Russia’s capability to strike any European city or asset with an unstoppable hypersonic missile that could carry a nuclear warhead, demonstrating their seriousness and displeasure with the escalation [00:51:31].
Concerns and Implications
The war is escalating, and the current trajectory is deemed unfavorable [00:52:10]. There is a need to de-escalate to avoid a disastrous outcome, especially given the risk of World War III [00:52:16].
[!WARNING] It is considered “deranged” and “incredibly dangerous” that the Biden White House escalated the conflict as a lame-duck president, just six weeks before the end of his term, and without consulting the incoming Trump administration [00:52:23]. This decision ignored the clear message from American voters to end the war and for the United States to disengage [00:53:14].
The fiscal cost of this escalation is also a concern, involving tens and hundreds of billions of dollars, in addition to the risk of nuclear escalation [00:54:17].
Political Context and Future Outlook
The current situation highlights the complex relationship between social, economic, political, and foreign conflict issues [00:39:18]. Vladimir Putin is likely aware of the impending leadership change in the White House [00:54:34].
The incoming US president, Donald Trump, has campaigned on ending the war and does not “own” the current policy, unlike the current administration, which has been described as being in a “quagmire” and unable to admit defeat [00:55:09]. Historically, Biden has reversed his own “Armageddon” warnings about supplying certain weapon systems to Ukraine, ultimately providing them [00:55:25]. This approach has been likened to a “Martingale” gambling strategy, where one continuously doubles down on a losing bet in the hope of eventually winning, with the risk of going broke [00:56:30].
There is optimism that the new administration, with its mandate to end the war, can change the trajectory and reduce the risk of further escalation [00:56:06]. The hope is to navigate the next two months without further significant escalation [00:56:21]. Biden’s smiling demeanor during a recent meeting with Trump in the Oval Office is now speculated to have been a “grin” knowing he was about to authorize a decision that would create a “horrible hand” for Trump to inherit [00:59:53]. This move, without conferring with his successor, was seen as “crazy” for an outgoing president [01:00:30].