From: veritasium
Success is often attributed to skill and hard work, but the influence of luck is frequently underestimated due to inherent human biases. Acknowledging the role of chance not only offers a more realistic perspective but also has significant psychological effects of acknowledging or ignoring luck, influencing generosity and social perceptions.
Egocentric Bias
Egocentric bias is a cognitive phenomenon where individuals overestimate their own contributions while underestimating those of others [01:05:05]. This bias is evident in various contexts:
- A viral headline during the COVID lockdown revealed that nearly half of men claimed to do most of the homeschooling, while only three percent of women agreed [00:00:03].
- In multi-author academic papers, researchers found that the sum of self-reported work percentages from individual authors averaged 140 percent [00:00:26].
- Couples asked about housework consistently report combined totals over 100 percent [00:00:35].
- This bias extends to negative contributions as well; people believe they cause more problems or start more fights, with totals again exceeding 100 percent [00:00:50].
This phenomenon occurs because individuals vividly experience and remember all of their own actions, but not everything done by others [00:00:58].
Underestimating the Role of Luck
The egocentric bias extends beyond personal contributions, causing individuals to underestimate the influence of external factors, particularly luck, on their lives [01:10:00].
The “Birthday Effect” in Sports
In professional hockey, players born in the first quarter of the year are up to four times more likely to be selected into top-tier leagues compared to those born in the fourth quarter [01:41:00]. This disparity arises because the cutoff date for youth leagues is January 1st [01:47:00]. Children born earlier in the year are slightly older, and thus, on average, bigger and faster than their peers [01:53:00]. These early advantages compound over time, as promising young players receive more ice time, enter more tournaments, and benefit from better coaching, leading to a strong skew towards early birthdays by the professional level [02:05:00]. Professional hockey players rarely attribute their success to being born in January [02:20:00].
The Impact of Country of Birth
One of the most significant aspects of luck is the country of birth [02:31:00]. Approximately half of the variance in global income is explained by an individual’s country of residence and its income distribution [02:36:00]. For example, being born in a country like Burundi, with the world’s lowest gross national income per capita, drastically limits earning potential regardless of individual talent or effort [02:43:00].
The Necessity of Both Skill and Luck
While it is common to view success as solely a product of skill or luck, the reality is that both are essential [03:06:00].
Track and Field Records
Consider eight track and field world records: seven out of eight were achieved with the aid of a tailwind [03:13:00]. While these athletes were undeniably world-class and dedicated, setting a world record required an element of luck [03:25:00].
NASA Astronaut Selection Model
The importance of luck is amplified in highly competitive environments with limited openings [03:31:00]. In a toy model simulating the 2017 NASA astronaut selection process, where 11 individuals were chosen from over 18,300 applicants [03:37:00]:
- The model assumed selection was 95% based on skill/experience and 5% on luck [03:53:00].
- Across a thousand simulations, the selected astronauts had an average luck score of 94.7 out of 100 [04:30:00].
- On average, only 1.6 of the 11 selected astronauts would have been in the top 11 based on skill alone [04:44:00].
- This suggests that even with luck accounting for a mere 5% of the outcome, 9 or 10 of the 11 selected individuals would have been different if luck played no role [04:48:00].
In fierce competition, talent and hard work are crucial, but a “break” (luck) is often necessary for success [05:00:00].
Reasons for Overlooking Lucky Breaks
People are largely unaware of their good fortune because, by definition, it’s not something they actively did [05:09:00]. Additionally, downplaying the importance of chance events may actually enhance the probability of success, as perceiving an outcome as uncertain can reduce effort investment [05:19:00]. Therefore, believing one is in full control of their destiny can be a useful delusion [05:32:00].
Furthermore, overlooking lucky breaks can make it easier to justify one’s position in society [05:47:00]. Individuals with wealth or power may attribute their status solely to intelligence, effort, and perseverance, which facilitates the acceptance of inequality [05:54:00].
Experiments on Entitlement and Generosity
- The Cookie Experiment: In a study, one person in a group of three was randomly designated as a team leader. When four cookies were provided, the extra cookie consistently went to the randomly chosen leader, who had no special aptitude or extra responsibilities [06:03:00]. This suggests that once a certain status is achieved, it feels deserved [06:28:00].
- Charity Donation Experiment: Participants were asked to reflect on a recent positive event. Those who listed their personal qualities or actions as reasons for the event donated 25% less to charity than those who listed external factors beyond their control [06:49:00].
These findings suggest that successful individuals, particularly those in positions of power, may have a distorted view of reality, believing the world is fair and rewards hard work due to their own survivor bias [07:44:00]. This perspective can lead them to conclude that less successful people are simply less talented or hardworking, making them less inclined to be generous or contribute to societal structures that enabled their own success [08:00:00].
Benefits of Acknowledging Lucky Circumstances
Acknowledging fortunate circumstances has several benefits:
- It aligns one’s perspective more closely with reality [08:47:00].
- It makes individuals more likeable. A study showed that a fictional biotech entrepreneur who attributed success to luck was perceived as kinder and more approachable than one who took full personal credit [08:54:00].
- It fosters gratitude, contributing to increased happiness [09:23:00].
The speaker personally cites moments of luck that led to significant life changes, such as a Vsauce shout-out that doubled his YouTube subscribers and allowed him to pursue content creation full-time, and a chance encounter that led to meeting his wife [09:30:00].
Paradoxical Advice for Success
To navigate a world where luck plays a significant, yet often unacknowledged, role, the following paradoxical advice is offered [10:26:00]:
- Believe in complete control: Individuals should act as if their success depends entirely on their own talent and hard work [10:34:00]. This useful delusion can fuel effort and persistence.
- Acknowledge luck’s role: Simultaneously, recognize that this belief is not entirely true for oneself or anyone else [10:43:00]. For those who achieve success, it is important to remember that luck played a significant part [10:48:00].
Given one’s good fortune, the advice concludes by advocating for efforts to “increase the luck of others” [10:54:00]. As an example, the speaker details an initiative to give away molecular modeling kits (Snatoms) to those who cannot afford them, funded by sales [11:01:00].