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IsraelPalestine conflict

4 min read

From: officialflagrant

The Israel-Palestine conflict is an ongoing geopolitical issue, with the United States closely involved as an ally of Israel [01:07:01]. Recent developments suggest a significant shift in dynamics within the region and the approach of key leaders.

Current State of Affairs

  • Netanyahu’s Position Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently in a precarious position, facing more risk than Russian President Putin during the Ukraine war [02:20:29]. This is attributed to Israel being a functioning democracy with public transparency and calls for re-election [02:20:32].
    • While there is support for Netanyahu, it is largely from a “narrow far-right support” base, whereas most of the country has adopted a moderate stance [02:20:51].
    • Initially, the conflict may have unified the country, but protests are now resuming [02:20:59]. This creates a small window of full support, and the longer it lasts, the riskier Netanyahu’s position becomes [02:21:14].
    • It was a political opportunity for Netanyahu to consolidate power amid existing divisiveness [02:21:38].
  • Hamas and Palestinian Support As a result of the conflict, Hamas has gained increased popularity and stronger support in both Gaza and the West Bank [02:21:49].
    • It’s emphasized that Palestinians and Hamas terrorists are distinct entities, despite media often using the terms interchangeably [02:22:03].
    • Initially, news reports from October 2023 would cite “Hamas authorities” for casualty figures, but by March 2024, reports validated “Palestinian health authority” data [02:22:18]. This validation of Hamas as a “valid government organization” is seen as tricky [02:22:51].
    • Hamas has been the appointed political power in Gaza since 2007 [02:23:01]. Their growing popularity in the West Bank is particularly notable, as the West Bank has historically been supported by a US-backed Fatah government [02:23:38].

U.S. Diplomacy and Implications

  • The U.S. administration, including the President, Vice President, and National Security head, invited Israel’s opposition leader to the U.S. due to difficulties communicating with Netanyahu [01:06:51].
  • Biden and Netanyahu are currently “at odds” [01:07:04].
  • The U.S. advised Israel against planned airstrikes, urging them not to repeat American mistakes post-9/11 [02:21:22].
  • The U.S. reclassified Hamas as a terrorist group in 2024 (after declassifying them in 2019), leading to a withdrawal of funds [02:19:02]. However, this move alienated European allies like Turkey, France, and Spain, who continued to fund Hamas, leading to a “bound up” Biden administration [02:19:31].

Future Outlook

  • Political Asylum: It is predicted that both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may seek political sanctuary/asylum in the United States [02:25:01]. The U.S. “cannot let Zelensky die” as he represents democracy in Europe, and Putin is known to target opponents [02:25:55].
  • Stalemate and Two-State Solution: It’s likely that a ceasefire will be called in Israel, leading to a prolonged period where a new normal emerges and a two-state solution returns to the discussion [02:23:54].
    • Both Zelensky and Netanyahu have made promises they cannot fulfill [02:24:31]. Zelensky cannot win the war to restore Ukraine’s pre-war boundaries, and Netanyahu cannot “cleanse” Hamas or occupy Palestinian lands without exacerbating resistance [02:24:35].
    • The next best outcome for these leaders is a prolonged stalemate, shifting global attention to a “different disaster” [02:25:27].

Proxy Wars and Geopolitical Shifts

The U.S. strategy involves constant rotation of Special Operations groups for “active training in real-world conflict” through proxy wars [02:28:16]. This includes involvement in Somalia, Mogadishu, Colombia, and Peru [02:28:22]. The presence of the “biggest kid in the playground” (U.S.) can unintentionally stoke more conflict [02:29:18]. The U.S. will engage in these conflicts to protect its interests and train its forces [02:29:05].

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