Potential economic impact of artificial intelligence

From: mk_thisisit

The development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) are poised to create significant economic shifts globally, impacting national economies, job markets, and international power dynamics.

Valuation of AI Companies

The valuation of AI companies, such as Kosmos AI (valued at over 2 billion zlotys or 500 million dollars [00:00:03], [00:00:05], [00:00:52]), is primarily determined by what investors are willing to pay [00:00:08], [00:05:35]. It’s important to note that these valuations are considered virtual money until the company is publicly listed or sold [00:05:27].

Poland’s Unique Potential in AI

Poland possesses significant human capital that can drive its economic growth through AI development.

• Top Programmers: Poland is home to some of the best programmers globally [00:00:21], [00:12:34]. This is evidenced by their performance in major international programming competitions [00:00:25], [00:12:40].
• Global Ranking: Over the last decade, Poland ranks fourth globally in programming competition medals, behind Russia, China, and the United States [00:12:44], [00:12:46].
• Per Capita Leadership: Despite having a population nine times smaller than the United States, Poland has only one less medal [00:12:52], [00:12:54]. Per capita, Poland is the world leader in programming medals [00:12:57], [00:13:00].
• Natural Resource: This intellectual talent is considered the most important “natural resource” in the 21st century, more valuable than diamond deposits [00:13:03], [00:13:09], [00:13:25].
• Economic Disparity: Despite this significant potential, Poland’s economy ranks only 50th in terms of GDP per capita [00:13:32], [00:13:34]. The argument is that a country with such intellectual potential should not be “such a poor country” [00:13:38], [00:13:41], [00:13:43].

AI as a Revolutionizing Force

AI is considered to be at a “breakthrough moment” [00:19:01], with its origins tracing back to thinkers like Alan Turing in the 1950s [00:19:08], [00:19:10].

• Comparison to Industrial Revolution: The current era of AI development is likened to the Second Industrial Revolution in the 1920s, which allowed the United States to surpass Great Britain economically [00:19:50], [00:19:52], [00:19:58], [00:20:00]. AI offers a similar opportunity for countries like Poland today [00:20:02], [00:20:05].
• Greatest Revolution: AI is described as the greatest revolution since the beginning of the 20th century, surpassing the impact of the internet, personal computers, or social media on global economic prosperity [00:20:33], [00:20:37], [00:20:50], [00:20:54]. Previous technological shifts did not fundamentally alter the global economic power structure, with the US remaining the richest country since the Second Industrial Revolution [00:21:05], [00:21:08], [00:21:11]. However, AI has the potential to change this [00:21:22], [00:21:24].

Challenges and Societal Impact

While AI offers immense opportunities, it also presents significant challenges, particularly regarding employment and global inequality.

• Job Displacement: AI is projected to replace 30% to 50% of positions by 2050, primarily targeting repetitive and routine jobs [00:21:50], [00:21:52], [00:21:58].
• Exacerbating Inequality: The jobs most affected are often found in “third-world countries” [00:22:01]. Coupled with demographic changes (e.g., Africa’s population increasing by 1.6 billion people by 2050, while Poland’s decreases by 5 million [00:21:32], [00:21:40], [00:21:45]), this could lead to a situation where the poorest countries are most severely impacted by AI development [00:22:06], [00:22:08], [00:22:10].
• Global Instability: With fewer jobs and a growing population, especially in regions like Africa, there’s a risk that richer countries will become richer and poorer countries even poorer, potentially leading to instability [0:22:18], [00:22:20], [00:22:22], [00:22:32], [00:22:34], [00:22:36].

Ethical and Regulatory Considerations

Discussions around AI development often touch upon data privacy and regulatory frameworks.

• Data Control: To control AI, it is essential to control data, as AI algorithms are only as good as the data they are built upon [00:11:48], [00:11:51], [00:11:54], [00:11:57]. Countries and users have influence over data regulations [00:23:29], [00:23:31].
• User Control: While AI is a tool, users don’t fully control what online stores do with their data [00:23:38], [00:23:40], [00:23:45], [00:23:46], [00:23:49]. Users’ primary ability is to limit access to their data, which is not always easy [00:24:34], [00:24:38], [00:24:40], [00:24:43].
• GDPR Limitations: Regulations like GDPR are considered insufficient because while they set good rules for people, they don’t stop those with bad intentions [00:24:43], [00:24:47], [00:24:51], [00:24:56], [00:24:58]. Making regulations overly restrictive could harm business development [00:25:02], [00:25:03], [00:25:05], [00:25:07].
• Progress Cannot Be Stopped: Banning AI outright, as Italy has done, is not a wise approach [00:26:08], [00:26:11]. Progress cannot be stopped unless all countries agree to a ban, which is unlikely [00:26:13], [00:26:15], [00:26:17], [00:26:19], [00:26:22], [00:26:25].
• Prudent Regulation: Wise regulations regarding data, taxes, blockchain technology, and education are needed [00:29:34], [00:29:36], [00:29:39], [00:29:41]. These regulations should be agreed upon by citizens and entrepreneurs, and not politicized [00:29:45], [00:29:47], [00:29:50], [00:29:52]. Issues like protecting personal data should be “above divisions” and based on common sense [00:30:16], [00:30:18], [00:30:20], [00:30:21], [00:30:24].

Path Forward for Poland

To leverage its potential, Poland needs a collective, long-term strategy.

• Long-Term Vision: Poland should aim to become one of the ten largest economies in the world per capita by 2050 [00:29:04], [00:29:08], [00:29:10]. This requires acting together, beyond political categories, focusing on ten-year or even 25-year plans [00:28:51], [00:28:54], [00:29:16], [00:29:18], [00:29:20], [00:29:22].
• Global Mindset: Polish startups should not limit their focus to Poland or Europe, but consider the wider, more interesting global market [00:27:21], [00:27:23], [00:27:26], [00:27:27], [00:27:30], [00:27:32], [00:27:34]. To succeed internationally, entrepreneurs must immerse themselves abroad to gain necessary skills and language proficiency [00:27:37], [00:27:40], [00:27:42], [00:27:45].
• Leveraging Programmers: The key is to effectively utilize Poland’s top engineers to build businesses that can achieve global success [00:29:00], [00:29:02], [00:29:04].